Blake Snell Daily Fantasy News, Rankings, Projections

A six game Monday night slate that’s scheduled to start a bit earlier could quickly become a five or possibly even four game one starting a bit later, according to Kevin’s early forecast. Regardless, not a single pitcher reaches the $10K price point on either site, though two reach $9K on both sites with an additional one just on DraftKings. With a 35.8 K% over his last start, Robbie Ray is now up to an 18.3 K-BB% on the season, but has still allowed at least three runs in six of his last seven starts because seven of his nine barrels (9.2%) have left the park over that span (17.1 HR/FB), despite pitching in some pitcher friendly parks outside of Seattle (Baltimore, New York NL, Miami). A 15.1 HR/FB and maybe even a 70 LOB% suggest he could run a bit better with a barrel rate in single digits. Season estimators range from a 3.57 SIERA to a 4.30 DRA, all more than half a run below his 4.93 ERA. The most expensive pitcher on the slate, Ray projects as the second best pitcher on it, though no pitcher projects particularly well tonight and we certainly can’t call it an enviable spot in Houston. Though it’s a surprise to find the Astros with just a 98 wRC+ vs LHP this season, an 18.3 K% and 10.1 BB% makes more sense. They should test Ray.

Opposing Ray, Cristian Javier is the only other pitcher to reach $9K on both sites and does barely on either. He has struck out 31.5% of batters with a 12.9 SwStr% (2.44 K/SwStr), but also a 12.6 CStr% that’s second lowest on the board, so you have to wonder how sustainable this is, even if his strikeout rate has risen since being inserted into the rotation. He’s also walked nine of his last 84 with just a 26.1 GB% on the season. Lots of popups? No, just a 5.9 IFFB% with an 89.5 mph EV and 8.4% Barrels/BBE. The closest estimator to his 2.41 ERA is a 2.88 FIP (5.9 HR/FB with just three of eight barrels leaving the yard). With an 84.1 LOB% too, you have to wonder what might happen should his strikeout rate regress below 30%. He may need to sustain an elite strikeout rate to remain successful. The Mariners have a 114 wRC+ vs RHP that’s the highest split on the board today, while striking out just 21.9% of the time against them. Javier projects slightly behind Ray as tonight’s third best arm via PlateIQ, though these projections are fluid. The best thing we can say about these two matchups are that they’re weather protected.

Carlos Carrasco costs $9.3K on DraftKings, but $800 less on FanDuel. He walked a season high five Nationals last time out, which seems an aberration, considering he’d only walked eight in his nine previous starts this year. What’s more in question is a 21.4 K% with an impressive 12.9 SwStr% that almost perfectly matches his career rate (12.8%) over which he’s struck out a quarter of the batters he’s faced (25.2%). He’s also managing contact better than he has in years (87.9 mph EV, 5.3% Barrels/BBE). However, aside from a stretch where he recorded at least two seventh inning outs in three of four starts, hasn’t completed six innings in any other start this season. A 3.63 ERA is within a one-third of a run of all non-FIP estimators (just three of his nine barrels have left the yard), but as the home runs adjust upwards, the strikeouts should as well, leaving him essentially about where he is. Carrasco is a top five projected arm on either site, although weather could move him up a spot, in San Diego. The Padres have just an 86 wRC+ and 22.7 K% vs RHP. He may be a bit undervalued in this spot.

The top projected pitcher on the board is also currently the top projected value on either site because Blake Snell costs $8.1K or less against the Mets. Through three starts, he has shown the Padres many of the same qualities has had last season, which includes lots of strikeouts (30%), walks (13.3%) and barrels (14.7%). While the average exit velocity is down nearly a full mile per hour (88.5), his ground ball rate is also down 10 points (29.4%). While it’s only been a sample of three starts, it looks a lot like last year and not enough like the pitcher they thought they were getting from Tampa Bay. With all those walks and elevated contact, he’s stranded just 60.6% of runners with a .188 BABIP. Estimators are all more than half a run below his 4.80 ERA, though only a 3.33 xERA (four popups to go with those five barrels) is much below four. It’s hard to tell which version of Snell you’re going to get in any given start, which does sometimes make him a great GPP play at an affordable price, though that would seem less likely to be true against an offense as well-disciplined as the Mets (104 wRC+, 20.9 K%, 8.8 BB% vs LHP). On a more standard slate, there would probably be several pitchers ahead of Snell, but we have to play the pitchers we’re dealt. Unfortunately, due to weather concerns in Cincinnati and maybe Cleveland as well, we’re probably not comfortable dropping down for any lower priced arms tonight, as none outside of Hunter Greene or Jon Gray project as decent values.

Two middle of the board arms, whose PlateIQ projections really stand out, are Sonny Gray and Blake Snell. Both are highly volatile arms, who project well at lower prices and at least part of that is the expectation of a higher workload than they’ve managed so far this season, due to injuries. In Gray’s case, it may also be largely due to the matchup (Tigers 73 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP). He has struck out 25 of 87 batters with a 50.9 GB% this year, though with just a 9.7 SwStr%, 10.3 BB% and 11.3% Barrels/BBE. He has just 14 batted balls that aren’t barrels, popups or grounders through five starts. Regardless, all estimators are within half a run of his 3.48 ERA. Gray is the top projected point per dollar value on DraftKings tonight ($6.8K).

Snell struck out five of 17 Phillies in his first start. He lasted just 3.2 innings, more due to performance than pitch count (84), walking three with his only barrel leaving the yard and just one-third of his contact on the ground. Despite all his problems last year (12.5 BB%, 11% Barrels/BBE) he still struck out 30.9% of batters, so that’s going to be there no matter what. He should be good for 90, which may only get him through five innings, but he could total double digit strikeouts in that time. The Brewers have just a 92 wRC+ and 22.9 K% vs LHP. Snell is the top projected value on FanDuel tonight ($6K).

George Kirby, James Kaprielian and Jordan Montgomery are also pitchers who cost less than $7.5K on either site and carry a top point per dollar projection. Kirby impressively struck out seven Rays without a walk in his major league debut, but has struggled in starts against the Mets and Red Sox since, striking out just four of 41 batters. He’s walked just two batters overall, but the contact profile has been a mess (93 mph EV, 10.2% Barrels/BBE). More than half his contact has had an exit velocity of at least 95 mph. Kirby ran a 29 K-BB% through five AAA starts before being called up and Fangraphs labels him a 55 Future Value grade (on a 20-80 scale). He may have the top matchup on the slate, hosting Oakland (72 wRC+, 24.3 K% vs RHP) though.

Kaprielian has been all over the place in four starts. Twice he has walked more than he’s struck out (seven to three), but he’s struck out 13 with just three walks in his other two (both against the Twins). Altogether, he has yet to complete six innings with an unimpressive 7.9 K-BB% and 10% Barrels/BBE, despite 66% of his contact below a 95 mph EV. He threw over 100 innings with a 16.3 K-BB% last year, so perhaps he’ll eventually straighten things out, but for now, all estimators exceed his 4.50 ERA. The Mariners have a 111 wRC+ and 22.5 K% vs RHP, but we can’t deny the negative run environment in Seattle.

Montgomery hasn’t struck out more than five in a start and is at just 19.3% for the year. However, everything else is optimistic, including a career high 13.9 SwStr% and 16.1 CStr% that’s right on his career average (15.9%) and the league average. Both his walk and barrel rates are just below five percent as well. Estimators are all above his 3.35 ERA, but only his DRA (4.24) is above four. The Orioles have a 78 wRC+ and 27 K% vs LHP.

Tuesday night’s board carries a number of interesting lower priced arms, several below $8K, in SP2 range, on DraftKings. We can start with the rejuvenated Blake Snell. While nothing else is seemingly working for the Padres, is this finally the Blake Snell they thought they were trading for? In five August starts, Snell has struck out 37.9% of batters faced (15 SwStr%) with just 10 walks (four over his last three starts), allowing just seven runs (four home runs) with a 2.12 ERA and estimators below three. It’s his first three start stretch since April without a start with at least three walks. He’s still allowed 12.9% Barrels/BBE in August (11.3% on the year), but a K-BB near 30% significantly reduces the damage. On the season, a 5.36 xERA is his only estimator above a 4.58 ERA. The Diamondbacks still carry many of the RH bats that have given them a 102 wRC+ vs LHP this season and only two projected starters for Arizona exceed a 17.7 K% vs LHP this season (both also above 29%), but if Snell is going to continue to pitch like this, he’s severely underpriced at just $7.7K on DraftKings.

Tarik Skubal looked like he was tiring around the break, but he’s allowed just four runs his last 22.2 innings and even struck out 10 last time out (18.8 SwStr%) behind a velocity spike. Statcast still doesn’t believe in him (90.5 mph EV, 12.8% Barrels/BBE, 5.36 xERA) and the FIP is a bit high (4.88, 19.2 HR/FB), but more contact neutral estimators line up within one-third of a run of his 4.01 ERA. The matchup against Oakland is not ideal (102 wRC+ vs LHP with just two in the projected lineup above a 20 K% vs LHP), but if Skubal’s recent strikeout rate boost is real, he’s underpriced too at $7.4K on DraftKings.

Some more quick hits: Charlie Morton is on a 13 start stretch with a 31.4 K% (24.7 K-BB%), allowing just seven home runs and 4.3% Barrels/BBE, but he faces the Dodgers (110 wRC+ vs RHP) in Los Angeles and carries a price tag of at least $8.9K on either site. The matchup could have a pitcher performing like a Cy Young candidate in single digit ownership though. Outside striking out 10 Orioles in his first August start, Jameson Taillon hasn’t struck out more than five since his first start of July (nine starts), but is running a 2.43 ERA that’s nearly half his xFIP (5.17), due to a .243 BABIP, 78.8 LOB% and 9.3 HR/FB during this run. For the season, a 4.18 ERA actually runs very closely to a 4.27 SIERA and 3.97 xERA. And that’s fine in an SP2 spot ($7.3K DK) against a projected lineup that includes just two batters below a 24.5 K% vs RHP this year. John Gant had walked just two of 36 batters for the Twins in relief, but now four of 32, though with seven strikeouts over two starts. Of course, the 3.4 K-BB% that includes a 15 BB% has been an insurmountable issue for him, though his 4.00 ERA still runs more than a run below non-FIP estimators. However, the keys here are $5.8K on DK and just two batters in the projected Cubs lineup with more than 3 PAs below a 23 K% vs RHP this year. Jordan Lyles has produced 10 quality starts this year and costs $5.2K on DK against the Rockies (68 wRC+ on the road, 76 wRC+ vs RHP).

An important aspect to remember as we embark on the last week of the regular season is team motivation. We can’t just assume a pitcher is set for his normal workload. Teams generally fall into one of four categories when it comes to pitcher workload management this time of year: getting pitchers ready for the post-season, still playing for a post-season spot, more cautiously managing the workload of younger pitchers or those with recent injuries, all systems go. A short five game slate allows us to examine all 10 pitchers tonight and see what category they fall into.

Blake Snell could fall into a couple of categories. The Rays are tied for the second wild card, but has thrown just two major league innings since July 21st. He can’t possibly be considered for a normal workload and is far too expensive for anything but. Similarly, Jhoulys Chacin has not faced more than 15 batters in an outing for the Red Sox.

Chandler Shepherd, Caleb Smith and Alex Young are all in their first full season. Shepherd hasn’t reached 120 innings on the year, but has been limited to four innings (19 batters) or less in all three major league outings. Smith is above 150 innings for the first time in his professional career and hasn’t necessarily been more limited, but has just a 21 K%, 6.08 ERA, 6.03 FIP and .342 xwOBA over the last 30 days. Alex Young is right around his workload for the last three seasons. He’s interesting due to a 12.7 SwStr% with a .308 xwOBA and 6.5% Barrels/BBE, but his estimators are all well above his ERA due to a .245 BABIP and more than 20% of his runs being unearned.

Clay Buchholz is not young and does have a favorable matchup (Orioles 85 wRC+ vs RHP), but he has been injured and bad (13.6 K%, ERA & estimators all above five, .366 xwOBA, 12.3% Barrels/BBE). The Orioles also pounded him for seven runs and two HRs in his last start.

It’s been a good season for Snell despite an inflated 4.55 ERA; he owns a 3.33 xFIP, 3.57 SIERA, 32.2% K rate, 8.4% BB rate and impressive 17.5% SwStr, as well as a career best .267 xwOBA and 4.8% barrel rate allowed. Snell did have a string of rough starts back in June where he allowed 6+ runs in 3 of 5 starts, including a 6 ER outing where he lasted only 1/3 of an inning. He has looked better in 3 starts since, especially in his last 2 starts coming against a very good Yankees’ lineup which he held to only 1 earned in each start. Today, Snell gets a much easier matchup with a White Sox lineup that has the worst xwOBA in the league since the all-star break with a paltry .257 xwOBA as a team. The White Sox do have a respectable 102 wRC+ versus lefties on the year, though with a decently high 24.5% K rate. Without some of their more productive bats vs. LHP, White Sox have just one batter in their projected lineup (Jose Abreu) who has an xwOBA greater than .315 vs. lefties on the year, with 4 batters under .300. Snell gets a pitcher friendly ump calling balls and strikes in DJ Reyburn and the White Sox currently have just a 2.91 implied total vs. him and the Rays. He makes a lot of sense in both cash and tournaments this afternoon.

Blake Snell started off the season incredibly well, but has really fallen apart over the past 30 days with an 11.94 ERA, 4.75 xFIP, 5.00 SIERA, and 10.8% K-BB. Over that time frame Snell has seen his dominant curveball collect a pitch value of -3.9; the pitch was worth a pitch value of 13.2 last year. His changeup has also gone downhill recently with a -3.9 value after it earned a 7.2 mark in 2018. Looking at his Statcast data, his curveball had a spin rate of 2517 RPM in 2018 and has averaged 2487 RPM so far in 2019, though over the past month that number has fallen to 2359. Snell’s offspeed pitches (curve, change, slider) over the past month have been ineffective as he’s allowed a .332 xwOBA when using them. He’s also given up a .358 xwOBA with his fastball over that time. Especially with Snell expected to see high ownership today, Rangers bats make for an interesting leverage stack with Snell clearly trying to regain his feel in the mound. Joey Gallo (.398 xwOBA vs. LHP), Asdrubal Cabrera (.331), Willie Calhoun (.329), Ronald Guzman (.324), Elvis Andrus (.312) and Danny Santana (.306) are all options if you’re looking to get contrarian. Delino Deshields (.276) has struggled vs. LHP this year but has a decent .310 career wOBA vs. LHP and will lead off at just $3.9k on Draftkings. Gallo has been their hottest bat with a .411 xwOBA over the past 2 weeks, followed by Danny Santana at .394.