MLB Player Props for Thursday, 4/17: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Aaron Judge, Tanner Bibee, and Will Warren? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, April 17th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Happy Thursday! Today’s MLB slate features 10 games, beginning at 12:10 PM ET with a matchup between the Diamondbacks and Marlins. There are 5 evening games on the schedule, giving bettors plenty of time to find a few plays to their liking.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat, or unlucky, if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Thursday, April 17th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Thursday, April 17th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 12:10 PM ET on Thursday, April 17th:
- Aaron Judge Over/Under 1.5 Total Bases
- Tanner Bibee Over/Under 15.5 Outs Recorded
- Will Warren Over/Under 2.5 Earned Runs
Aaron Judge OVER 1.5 Total Bases (-115, DraftKings)
In 2024, Judge finished the regular season with an incredible 218 wRC+, hitting 58 home runs. In 18 games to begin 2025, Judge already has 7 home runs and has an even more incomprehensible 273 wRC+. Simply, Judge is the best hitter on the planet right now. Ahead of first pitch this evening, Judge has 4 multi-hit performances in his last 5 games. He’s seeing the ball well right now and should continue to put some good swings on the baseball in this spot against Taj Bradley.
Tanner Bibee OVER 15.5 Outs Recorded (-125, DraftKings)
Bibee has failed to make it out of the 5th inning in consecutive starts. However, it’s important to note that his pitch count is built up to 96 pitches, meaning that he’s likely not going to face any workload restrictions. Though Bibee is off to an underwhelming start in 2025, he’s a talented pitcher who has a proven track record of being able to consistently work into the 6th inning. Last September, he recorded 18+ outs in 4 of his final 5 turns through the rotation. This is a good buy-low spot on Cleveland’s ace.
Will Warren OVER 2.5 Earned Runs (+100, DraftKings)
Warren threw the ball well during Spring Training, but he has found less success to begin the regular season, struggling to a 5.14 ERA through his first 3 turns in the rotation. Tonight, he has a tough assignment, pitching in one of the more hitter-friendly venues in Major League Baseball. His struggles could be amplified if he continues to allow a lot of hard contact in the air. It wouldn’t be surprising to see Tampa Bay’s offense find some success here.
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