MLB Player Props for Thursday, 5/15: Best Bets & Predictions Today
What kind of performances can we expect on Thursday from Joc Pederson, Matt Sauer, and Osvaldo Bido? Follow along as our MLB betting analyst, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for Thursday, May 15th. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more MLB plays, by subscribing to the RotoGrinders Props & Pick’em package.
Major League Baseball had a light Thursday schedule with only 6 games, including only 2 evening games. That being said, there are still a pair of contests left to get underway this evening – both of which have some big names and some quality betting options available for the community to evaluate.
As always, be sure to monitor our MLB starting lineups page throughout the day, as unexpected changes in the batting order can result in value opportunities in the betting and DFS markets.
Another reminder – it’s not a bad beat or unlucky if you bet a player to hit a home run and his fly ball dies on the warning track because it’s 40 degrees with the wind blowing in! Before locking in any bets, use our MLB weather page, curated by Chief Meteorologist, Kevin Roth. There are countless edges to be found if we make the right reads on possible rain delays and great hitting weather, just to name a few. Taking a look at the weather report can save us from a bad bet that otherwise looks good on the surface.
Below, you can find my 3 picks for Thursday, May 15th!
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Best MLB Player Props for Thursday, May 15th
Here are my top player prop bets for today, with the first pitch scheduled for 8:05 PM ET on Thursday, May 15th:
- Joc Pederson Over/Under 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs
- Matt Sauer Over/Under 4.5 Hits Allowed
- Osvaldo Bido Over/Under 14.5 Outs Recorded
Joc Pederson OVER 0.5 Hits + Runs + RBIs (-160, BetMGM)
Pederson has not been productive by any measure early in 2025, but this is simply a disrespectful line for any hitter in the 3-hole. Pederson could cash this play, even without recording a base hit on Thursday night. He has a pair of talented hitters in front of him in the Texas lineup in addition to Adolis Garcia and Marcus Semien behind him. A simple base knock will get the job done, as will a well-timed fly ball or a walk followed by an assist from his teammate.
Matt Sauer UNDER 4.5 Hits Allowed (-150, DraftKings)
Sauer has thrown as many as 78 pitches in a game this season, but that was all the way back on April 29. Since that point, he’s thrown 42 pitches across 4 innings against the Marlins and 9 pitches in a single inning of work against the Diamondbacks. At the absolute most, it seems likely that Sauer is done after 5 innings this evening. Of course, an even shorter leash is possible, especially with a rested arm barn behind him. Sauer probably isn’t going to be on the mound long enough to allow 5 hits this evening unless the Athletics ambush him in the first couple of frames.
DRAFTKINGSOsvaldo Bido OVER 14.5 Outs Recorded (-140, DraftKings)
Bido hasn’t been overly effective to begin 2025, and few of his underlying metrics suggest that there is much positive regression in store. That being said, the one thing that Bido has in his favor when it comes to the outs recorded market is that he’s among the more efficient starters in the game. During the last 30 days, he’s averaging only 3.6 pitches per batter faced, which means he’s either getting outs or allowing baserunners quickly. As formidable as the Dodgers’ lineup looks on paper, they rank only 11th in wRC+ against RHP across the last couple of weeks. Bido is capable of getting through 5 innings.
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