MLB Player Props Today: Three Predictions for Dinger Tuesday (7/9)
What kind of performances can we expect on Dinger Tuesday from Brandon Marsh, Yordan Alvarez, and Jack Suwinski? Follow along as our MLB betting expert, Nick Galaida, breaks down three of his favorite MLB prop bets for today – Tuesday, July 9, 2024. Get all of Nick’s picks, including more baseball props, at ScoresandOdds.
Happy Dinger Tuesday! The popular FanDuel promotion is back for another week in the 2024 MLB season – bet $25 (amount varies) on a pre-live, straight “To Hit a Home Run” wager and receive bonus bets for each home run hit by both teams in the game.
Each week in this article, we will have some home run targets for the betting community, whether you are betting that promotion or if you simply want to throw a few fun dollars at a couple of different guys to leave the yard.
We have three total home run targets in today’s article for you to consider!
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Below are three prop leans for July 9!
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MLB Player Props Today
Brandon Marsh to Hit a Home Run
Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run
Jack Suwinski to Hit a Home Run
Brandon Marsh to Hit a Home Run (+630), FanDuel
Brandon Marsh isn’t the sexiest name on the board for Dinger Tuesday, but he enters play ranked in the 90th percentile in Average Exit Velocity, 93rd percentile in Hard-Hit%, and has hit a lot of fly balls against RHP during the last month of action. He’s a good fastball hitter as well, which positions him well tonight against the Dodgers, with temperature approaching 100 degrees in addition to the wind blowing out.
Bobby Miller is extremely reliant on his 4-Seamer against LHB, using it 46.8% of the time so far in 2024. Perhaps most concerning is the fact that his velocity on that offer is down significantly compared to 2023. His spin rates have also been erratic across his last few outings. This is good value for a player who is elevating the ball well against RHP of late.
Yordan Alvarez to Hit a Home Run (+350), FanDuel
It’s not exactly hard to arrive at Yordan Alvarez as a pick in this article, but it’s for good reason. In his last 95 plate appearances, Alvarez has a 17.6% barrel rate, which ranks 12th best out of 283 hitters (min. 50 PA). Alvarez doesn’t have a platoon advantage tonight, but it might not matter – he’s been almost as good against LHP as RHP in 2024.
Alvarez has a 4.5 HR% against LHP this year compared to a 5.6 HR% against RHP. Trevor Rogers is also not a lock to get deep into this game, which means Alvarez could have multiple at-bats in the later frames against hittable relief arms. It’s never difficult to talk oneself into trusting Alvarez to leave the yard.
Jack Suwinski to Hit a Home Run (+470), FanDuel
Jack Suwinski is never a poor candidate for Dinger Tuesday. He hasn’t been elevating the ball a ton of late, but he gets a very favorable matchup tonight against Colin Rea, who has allowed north of a 40% fly ball rate during the last month.
Rea has also really struggled with LHB this year, posting only a 16.1 strikeout% and a 5.28 FIP. He’s allowed 9 of his 13 home runs this season to LHB. Suwinski has good bat speed and is more than capable of running into a baseball against RHP – 45 of his 53 career HR have come with a platoon advantage. This is fair value for a player with legitimate pop.
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MLB 2024 Results – Wager Type
Strikeouts: 7-0
Outs Recorded: 2-2
Hitter Strikeouts: 4-0
Total Bases: 9-8
Hits + Runs + RBIs: 2-0
Stolen Bases: 0-2
Dinger Tuesday: 4-9-2
Combined Record: 27-22-2 (55.1%)
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