MLB Predictions For Today: Giants Barely Favored Versus Phillies
The San Francisco Giants took two of the first three games in their weekend series with the Philadelphia Phillies. San Francisco needs to get back on track as they have fallen back of the wild card race after the trade deadline. Philadelphia has slipped some but remains a game and a half back of a spot. Here is a sports betting breakdown of tonight’s ESPN Sunday Night Baseball affair.
At the time of this writing on Sunday morning, bookmakers predict this game to be a near stalemate. Jake Arrieta starts for the Philadelphia Phillies as a -102 underdog. The Giants send rookie Conner Menez to the bump as a small -112 favorite hoping to close out a successful home series against the visiting Phillies. One might assume a 9 O/U seems relatively conservative considering the current MLB landscape. Yet, in this ballpark, a 9-run 0/U is rather high.
MLB Predictions for Today — Giants (-112) vs. Phillies (-102), Over/Under 9 Runs
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Temperature Meter — San Francisco Cooling in the Summer
The once playoff-hopeful San Francisco Giants seemingly traded themselves out of contention at the deadline. Despite hanging on to Madison Bumgarner and not making any blockbuster moves, the Giants are experiencing a tough August. The Giants are 3-7 this month and have fallen to 4.5 games out of a National League Wild Card spot.
What is contributing to the struggles? A very paltry 82 team wRC+ and .161 ISO are two major factors in the Giants inability to win ball games. With only 32 runs in August, the Giants offense is ice cold heading into tonight’s contest.
Stat of the Night
While the Giants struggle in August, Bryce Harper is heating up. Harper boasts a .300 ISO and 113 wRC+ in the month of August. His four home runs are driving that ISO number up as he only has a .185 BABIP to couple his very productive stats.
Harper is certainly squaring the ball up over the past 10 days. As if his 58.1 Hard% is not enough of an indicator, Harper has not hit one infield fly ball in the month. He is seeing the ball well (13.0 BB%) and hitting it hard. He will hit in the top of the Phillies lineup tonight on the road.
Pitching Primer
Jake Arrieta pitches for the Phillies tonight and is having a rather ho-hum type of season. The veteran pitcher is certainly showing his age in the 2019 season, yielding much more hard contact and home runs than ever before. Arrieta has not qualified for a quality start since June 19th, mostly pitching five innings before the Phillies are forced to use a bullpen arm.
In his prime years, Arrieta struck out batters at a reasonable rate. Again, Father Time is undefeated as Arrieta’s paltry 18.2 K% is indicative of a pitcher that no longer can overpower hitters. Perhaps in correlation to his diminishing stuff, Arrieta’s HR/9 has climbed to 1.4 this season — the highest mark since his Baltimore days.
That notwithstanding, Arrieta is getting a dramatic park shift in his favor tonight — escaping the hitter-friendly confines of Citizens Bank Park and moving to Oracle Park. Per FanGraphs, Oracle Park is the worst-rated park for home runs. Arrieta might not have to worry about the long ball with the marine layer looming but will need to improve upon his charitable 1.45 WHIP to keep the Giants at bay.
For the home team, Conner Menez makes his third start for San Francisco and has fared just about as well as one would expect a rookie to fare in his first couple starts in the big leagues — not well. Menez previously pitched against the Mets and Nationals with Washington ringing up the young southpaw for five earned runs over six innings of work.
Free passes have been an issue for Menez thus far as the young pitcher already issued five walks across his 11 innings of work. Power has also been an issue — in Oracle Park no less — as Menez already yielded four home runs in his pitcher-friendly home confines. Considering the suppressing nature of Oracle Park, the four home runs are certainly a concern. During his work in the minors this season, Menez yielded a 1.0 HR/9. The long ball is a lingering issue. Hopefully, for Menez, he is somehow able to navigate the tumultuous waters associated with a Phillies’ projected lineup with a team .273 ISO against left-handed pitching.
The MLB Pick — Phillies -102 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds).
To be honest, the Giants being favored in this game is puzzling to me. Perhaps, bookmakers consider this a true stalemate or even a slight lean to the Phillies and are just giving the home team an edge. The Phillies are a different offense on the road, of course, but the Giants offense lacks punch regardless of the ballpark. While Jake Arrieta is showing his age, so, too, is Connor Menez as he struggles out of the gate to begin his Major League career.
The Phillies offense has shown its inconsistency over this three-game stretch in San Francisco — scoring 0, 9, then 1 run in the first three games. Yet, Menez is a good matchup for a Phillies team rife with extra-base power against left-handed pitching. I want to hop on this line before there is any movement. I will take the Phillies to win at -102 on FanDuel Sportsbook.
Check back this week for more MLB Predictions.
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