MLB PrizePicks Predictions Today: Top Plays for Wednesday, June 26th
Traditional MLB DFS formats aren’t the only way to profit from daily fantasy baseball. MLB PrizePicks is a great fantasy pick’em site where we can take today’s projections versus theirs and combine two or more baseball predictions for sizeable payouts.
In this space, we’ll explore a few PrizePicks plays for the upcoming MLB slate. This article isn’t the be-all, end-all of great plays or a recommendation for a full ticket; it’s simply a starting place for you to explore thinking about the game within the game. Maybe you want to scatter these plays across entries. Maybe there are only two or three you think are worth playing. Daily fantasy pick’em gives us the flexibility to make only the plays in which we think there is value rather than being forced to create a full lineup while competing against the best DFS players in the industry.
PrizePicks is daily fantasy baseball made simple, and our MLB PrizePicks picks tool makes the process even simpler.
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All stats cited are since the start of the 2024 season unless otherwise noted.
MLB PrizePicks Predictions for Wednesday, June 26th
- Kutter Crawford MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
- Ryne Nelson LESS Than 16.5 Outs
- Gavin Stone MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
Kutter Crawford MORE Than 5.5 Strikeouts (DEMON)
We need some projections to move on PrizePicks before we place larger tickets. On a pitching-heavy slate, we’re looking largely to strikeouts, outs, and hits allowed projections to attack. The best strikeout play is probably Kutter Crawford to hit 6 Ks with a DEMON boost. The Jays are a very low-K team, but Crawford has gone 6+ IP in 5 consecutive starts — striking out 7+ in each of his last 3 games. If he can limit the power of a Jays lineup that just has a .131 ISO against righties, he should have enough of a shot to get 7 IP and compile 6 Ks. We have Crawford projected for 5.1 Ks, and 5.5 is just a low number for a DEMON K projection, so we should attack it.
Ryne Nelson LESS Than 16.5 Outs
Ryne Nelson and Simeon Woods Richardson are the only pitchers with barrel rates allowed over 9% for this slate. Woods Richardson has only given up 0.89 HR/9, while Nelson has given up 1.26 — which is tied for the slate high. Nelson’s 1.43 HR/9 allowed is the only HR/9 tonight over 1.25. If we’re gonna pick on a pitcher to get beat up and out of the game early, it’s him. The Twins’ projected lineup has a .196 ISO against righties, so this is likely not a spot where Nelson BABIPs his way through 6 IP. We have Nelson projected for 15.5 outs, making his LESS than 16.5 outs one of the best plays, according to our pick’em tool. It’s the only play for which I have any strong conviction.
Gavin Stone MORE Than 18.5 Outs (DEMON)
In Colorado, Gavin Stone only had 5.1 IP. In Yankee Stadium, he only had 5.2 IP. But other than those 2 starts, he’s gone 6+ IP in 7 of the other last 8 starts. Seven in 10 is still really good. Facing the White Sox is not nearly the same as pitching in Colorado or Yankee Stadium with their lineup’s .292 wOBA and .147 ISO against righties. We have Stone somewhat conservatively projected at just 17.9 outs because he isn’t an ace, but Dave Roberts is pitching him like an ace, letting him go into the 7th inning in 5 of his last 12 games. There’s no 6-inning cap on Stone, and that’s almost all we need to know for a pitcher facing the White Sox.
Stone doesn’t have high pitch counts, but he’s throwing that first strike 64.4% of the time and notching a solid 44.2% ground-ball rate to only a 23.8% fly-ball rate with just a 5.4% barrel rate allowed. He pitches to contact, but his hard-hit rate is just 36.2%, so it’s good contact for him to be economical with his pitches and compile outs.
All projections referenced are accurate at the time of writing but subject to change.
This isn’t a great evening to play at all, to be honest. I will throw in 3-5 contests for maybe a half-unit each just to attack some strong plays, but there isn’t much strong confidence. And our pick’em tool confirms that only a handful of plays provide a positive edge. There is a lack of gas cans on the slate for hitting plays and a lack of power pitching on the slate for great strikeout plays.
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