MMA DFS Expert Survey: UFC 300 - Pereira vs. Hill
Our panel of experts is here to give you their MMA DFS advice for this week’s contests by answering a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions. Want to know Squirrelpatrol’s favorite value play? Or h3budda’s top fighter for tournaments? Find out below!
MMA DFS Picks: DraftKings Expert Survey for UFC 300 – Pereira vs. Hill
Who is your favorite fighter to spend up for in cash games?
eys819: Weili
Moneyball16: Weili
h3budda: Nickal
squirrelpatrol: Weili
Bward586: Weili
What is your tournament strategy pertaining to the fact that there are three separate 5-round fights on this card?
eys819: I will likely have 100% exposure to the Gaethje/Holloway fight, with an overweight stance on the less popular (but favored) Gaethje. I will aim to be overweight on both Weili and Xiaonan, with total exposure again checking in near 100%. Pereira is easily the 5-round fighter I will be most underweight on. He can certainly pay off his price tag, but if he finishes the fight between rounds 2-4, he may not post a score that is needed. I intend to play Hill at a rate roughly even with the field. Any finish is likely to be useful at his salary.
Moneyball16: I think all these fighters are good options in GPPs. The upside in the Gaethje/Holloway fight is obvious. Both sides are good plays, but I like the leverage that likely comes with Gaethje a little more. I think Weili is an underrated DFS fighter and might go underlooked, while if Xiaonan does pull off the upset, she should be in the optimal. Both side of Pereira/Hill can put up a huge score at a very reasonable price point, however, I do think that the oddsmakers are underrating Hill a little bit here. I think he should probably be a true coin-flip, or maybe the tiniest of favorites.
h3budda: This is the rare card with three 5-round fights, and prioritizing them will be key. When you look at weight classes and potential action, the main event could be slower tactically, and even though it is priced right in the mid-range, a 3rd- or 4th-round finish might not get you to the top of the leaderboard. All of the ownership will be in these fights, and it concerns me with the women’s fight. If Xiaonan can stop takedowns, there might be a world where it is a competitive striking affair, making her interesting (even over 5 rounds of stats). It will be hard to ignore locking in the BMF battle and even more difficult to get away from Holloway moneyline value (plus the upside).
squirrelpatrol: I’m very interested in being over the field on the two underdogs in the 5-round fights that are favored to go beyond 3 rounds – Max Holloway and Yan Xiaonan. This card seems similar to UFC 285 – another Bo Nickal card with multiple 5-round fights where only one fighter priced under $8,200 won (Alexa Grasso). On a card like this, price could be much more important than an early finish, and I’m interested in the floor (even in GPPs) that Holloway and Xiaonan could provide even in a loss.
Bward586: For the most part, I’m breaking down the three title fights as I would any other. We’re expecting one-way traffic between Zhang Weili and Yan Xiaonan, so it doesn’t especially matter if that happens over 3 or 5 rounds — though it raises Weili’s ceiling a bit. The main event is -235 to end in under 3.5 rounds, making that effectively a 3-round fight. However, I want extra exposure to both fighters in the BMF title fight between Justin Gaethje and Max Holloway. That fight is -110 to go the distance, and both fighters score tremendously high on a per-minute basis.