MMA Expert Survey - UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

MMA Expert Survey – UFC 286: Edwards vs. Usman 3

Who is your favorite fighter for optimal lineups?

eys819: Usman
Moneyball16: Usman
h3budda: Usman

Who is your favorite fighter for tournaments?

eys819: Klein
Moneyball16: Christian Duncan
h3budda: Christian Duncan

Which stud fighter are you fading in tournaments?

eys819: Vettori
Moneyball16: Vettori
h3budda: Vettori

Who is your favorite chalky value play?

eys819: Gaethje
Moneyball16: Gaethje
h3budda: Edwards

Who is your favorite low-owned value play?

eys819: Todorovic
Moneyball16: Herbert
h3budda: Dolidze

Which fighter are you afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

eys819: Edwards
Moneyball16: Wood
h3budda: Winner of Wood/Carolina

Which fighter are you looking to avoid the most?

eys819: Maia
Moneyball16: Vettori
h3budda: Gaethje

Who do you think will have the highest score of the week?

eys819: Usman
Moneyball16: Usman
h3budda: Usman

What are your thoughts about stacking the five-round fight in cash?

eys819: With the fight favored to last the full five rounds, this is an easy stack. Usman should put up a huge score in a win, and he has a great floor as well as long as he doesn’t get caught early. Edwards is a great value option and locking him in with Usman guarantees you have the winner.

Moneyball16: Even on a slate this size, I think this one is an easy stack. Their last fight had these two total 182 DK points, and they are a favorite to go the full 5 rounds here. Usman has always been a good DFS fighter, and while Edwards historically hasn’t been, he has good win equity at his price as well.

h3budda: There is a lack of viable value and underdogs to avoid the stack this week. Both guys scored very well over 5 rounds last time out. You would be making a big mistake to avoid the stack in cash on this slate.

What is the fight you are most likely to avoid and why?

eys819: Murphy/Santos – One of the few fights on the card that is favored to go to the scorecards. Murphy has averaged just 83 DK points in his 3 UFC victories, which would not be very useful on a 15-fight card. Santos has solid win equity, but he is one of the more expensive underdogs and would need more than a decision victory to make the optimal lineup, in my opinion.

Moneyball16: Vettori/Dolidze – Both of the fighters have been very hard to score against historically. And this one is expected to go to a decision quite a bit, especially in the case that the favorite, Vettori, wins.

h3budda: Vettori/Dolidze – This fight should have a slower pace and the fight is expected to go the distance. Even if Dolidze gasses out, he will limit the number of points Vettori can get in this spot. I expect this fight to bust at a high rate.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

eys819: Usman – He has massive upside in five rounds with multiple ways to rack up fantasy points. He was able to land five takedowns in the last fight and racked up over 11 minutes of control time and 80 significant strikes. I think we see similar output here, only he doesn’t make the same mistake late and closes out the victory.

Moneyball16: Kamaru Usman – He combines a great floor with a great ceiling, making him the best play in all formats. Last time, he was about as close to beating Edwards as it gets while still losing and should take him down here. Hopefully the loss keeps some ownership off him as well.

h3budda: Usman – One of the best point per dollar plays in fantasy history. He is averaging 120.2 fantasy points per a fight. Very hard to ignore and he saves you the salary off of the 9k range. He should grapple and continue his high-scoring pace.

What’s your hot take of the week?

eys819: Ludovit Klein breaks the slate with multiple knockdowns and a second round KO for just $8,400 salary.

Moneyball16: There are two women fighters in the winning lineup.

h3budda: Only 1 underdog wins which creates the main event dog scoring decent in play.

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