Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Chiefs vs. Chargers

NFL Week 11 concludes Monday night in Mexico City as the 6-4 Kansas City Chiefs take on the 4-6 Los Angeles Chargers at over 7,000 ft of elevation. Online sports betting sites favor Patrick Mahomes and the Chiefs by 4.5 points and the game has the highest total of the week with an Over/Under of 52.5 points.

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Week 11 has been one of our best betting weeks of the season, beginning with an easy Thursday Night Football win on behalf of the Browns. The winning trend continued with our early NFL Week 11 picks (locked in on Monday) going 5-3 Sunday, then Joe Cistaro closed the night winning the Rams -6 while cashing in a first-touchdown bet and going 3-1 with his player prop bets. We’ll try to add one more win for the week with a Monday Night Football betting pick.

Editor’s Note: Use RotoGrinders’ new odds comparison tool to compare NFL odds across the online sports betting industry. The tool helps you, the bettor, find what sportsbook has the best price for your favorite NFL bets.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Chiefs vs. Chargers

Spread: Kansas City Chiefs -4.5 (use our FanDuel Sportsbook promo code to get these odds)

74% of bets are on Chiefs, per VegasInsider.com.

Over/Under: 52.5

69% of bets are on the Over.

After starting the season 4-0, the Kansas City Chiefs have dropped four of their last six games. While the Chiefs were without defending MVP Patrick Mahomes for three games, only one of their losses came while Mahomes was sidelined. Most recently, Kansas City lost a nail-biter to the Tennessee Titans as a result of a bad turnover and poor defense towards the end of the game. Kansas City’s defense continues to be a liability late in games and they’ll have their hands full with a Chargers offense that includes weapons like Melvin Gordon, Keenan Allen, Mike Williams, and Hunter Henry for veteran quarterback Phillip Rivers.

Time to buy low on Chiefs futures?

The futures market has reacted to Kansas City’s struggles, dropping the AFC West leaders’ odds to win the Super Bowl to a season-low +1200. While the Chiefs have certainly struggled, their losses aren’t all that concerning to me. In fact, my opinion of the Chiefs is largely the same as it was 11 weeks ago. For one, the Chiefs offense has only been at 100 percent for one full game. By January, Mahomes and his no. 1 receiver, Tyreek Hill, will be the most dangerous due in the playoffs. Their connection will also open things up for the tight end Travis Kelce and the running game. Secondly, two of Kansas City’s losses have been a result of noisy turnovers that turned into touchdowns. Mahomes protects the ball as well as anyone, so don’t expect things like that to continue. All things considered, it’s a great time to buy low on Chiefs to win the Super Bowl.

Use our DraftKings Sportsbook promo code to bet on Kansas City Chiefs +1200 to win the Super Bowl.

The Monday Night Football Betting Pick

For many of the same reasons I’m betting on the Chiefs to win the Super Bowl this week, I also like the Chiefs Monday night. As I wrote at nj.com on Friday, I loved the Chiefs -200 moneyline at PointsBet. The cost to bet on the Chiefs straight up has moved to -233, but we can still find the -4.5-point spread at FanDuel.

Also, consider exploring PointsBet’s unique Points Betting option, where the more points your team covers the spread, the more money you win. I think the Chiefs can blow out the Chargers, while there’s little risk of the Chargers blowing out the Chiefs.

For more information about Points Betting and a two risk-free bets up to $1000, click here.

My MNF Betting Pick: Chiefs -4.5

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Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Player and Game Props

Melvin Gordon Over 16.5 Rush Attempts (-112) at FanDuel – As Dan Gaspar points out in the NFL Grind Down for DFS, Gordon is fresh off a 22-carry game. I think they’ll try their best to follow that blueprint against Kansas City’s porous rush defense that is allowing a league-high 54.34% rush success rate to opposing teams.

Keenan Allen Over 66.5 Receiving Yards (-112) at FanDuel – GridironIQ projects Allen to have 85 receiving yards.

Damien Williams Under 55.5 Rushing Yards (-112) at FanDuel – LeSean McCoy is expected to be implemented in the running game after spending Week 10 inactive. The Chiefs said his absence was merely for maintenance.

LeSean McCoy +1800 First Touchdown at PointsBet – Read above.

Over 3.5 Total Field Goals (+108) at DraftKings – The high elevation should help out kickers Monday night. I like Over 3.5 field goals in a game where both teams will have no problem getting across the 50.

Monkey Knife Fight Player Props

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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight picks for Monday Night Football:

Touchdown Dance (2.5x): Tyreek Hill, Travis Kelce, and Melvin Gordon Over 2.5 combined touchdowns

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

  • Matt Schmitto (schmitto)

  • Matt Schmitto is the sports betting editor for RotoGrinders. He grew up in Texas, graduating from Texas Tech University. He has played high stakes DFS since 2013, and enjoys betting on golf, basketball, football and whatever else is put in front of him. Schmitto is an advocate of The Bettor’s Oath.

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