Thursday Night Football Betting Picks: Steelers at Browns
NFL Week 11 kicks off Thursday night with an AFC North showdown as the Pittsburgh Steelers travel to take on the Cleveland Browns. Online sports betting sites make the Browns slight favorites with a low total of just 40 points.
It’s tough to follow the excitement of Monday Night Football’s game between the 49ers and Seahawks. Most prime time games have been lackluster, but Monday night gave us everything we wanted in more. We split the game, losing the Under in heartbreaking fashion. Unfortunately, an early injury to Emmanuel Sanders caused us to miss in our prop bets as well. Hopefully we can make up for it on Thursday Night Football.
Thursday Night Football Betting Odds— Pittsburgh Steelers at Cleveland Browns
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Over/Under: 40
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Thursday Night Football Betting Breakdown
- Cleveland is 2-6-1 ATS (closing line) and the Over-Under is 4-5
- Pittsburgh is 5-3-1 ATS and the Over-Under is 3-6.
The Steelers visit Cleveland on the heels of four straight victories, which include a road win against the Chargers and home wins against the Colts and Rams. Despite losing Ben Roethlisberger in Week 1, the Pittsburgh Steelers find themselves holding onto the last AFC Wild Card spot. Their coaching has adjusted to their changing personnel, putting them in position to win five of their last six games after starting the season 0-3. It begs the question, should Mike Tomlin be a candidate for Coach of the Year?
On the other side of the field will be Freddie Kitchens, arguably the worst coach in the NFL through the first 10 weeks of the season. The Browns have drastically underperformed after entering the year with sky-high expectations. Those who bet on the Browns to win the Super Bowl were counting their losses weeks ago as Cleveland started the season 2-6 before winning their first game in over a month in Week 10. The Browns inched out a 19-16 win against the Buffalo Bills, cashing bets for those of us that grabbed Cleveland -2.5 before the line moved to -3.
If you’ve kept with my early Week X Lines and NFL Betting Picks column that is published every Monday, you know I’ve been backing the Browns consistently for the last month — of course, during their four-game losing skid. I was finally able to get a fraction of my losses back on Sunday. They’re lucky. I was ready to boycott all of those Baker Mayfield commercials if they didn’t cover.
Anyway, back to what’s important.
The Browns are well below average in rush ruccess% (23rd) and pass success% (27th), but not as far behind the 5-4 Pittsburgh Steelers as you would the think. The Steelers are 20th and 23rd in those categories, respectively. On defense, the teams are very similar, ranking just above average in terms of percentage of plays allowed that result in positive expected points added. Neither team plays at an unusually fast pace, hence the low total of 40 points.
Injury Report and More
For Pittsburgh, running back James Conner’s return is imminent but cornerback Joe Haden, a former Brown himself, showed up on the Steelers’ final injury report with an undisclosed illness, leaving him questionable for Thursday Night Football.
As for the Browns, the main thing is the further acclimation for Kareem Hunt in the offense. Hunt played 38 snaps in his first game back from a two-month suspension. 28 of those snaps were in 20-personnel grouping; that is, alongside fellow running back Nick Chubb and three receivers. The Browns showed a mix of creativity with the addition of Hunt, using him as a running back, receiver and even as a fullback at times. Hunt had 11 touches for a total of 77 yards, including 7 receptions on 9 targets. Hunt makes an excellent Showdown play for DFS at a price tag of $5,800.
My Thursday Night Football Betting Pick: Browns -2.5 (-115)
These teams are fairly evenly matched, but the Browns will have home-field advantage Thursday Night, for which the -2.5-point spread already accounts. The reason why I like the Browns, though, has more to do with the Steelers.
Pittsburgh is second in the league in takeaways (26), the most a Pittsburgh team has had through their first nine games in over 20 years. During their four-game win streak, the defense accounted for 14 turnovers and two touchdowns. That may sound like a scary stat for potential Cleveland bettors. Second-year quarterback Baker Mayfield is second in the NFL with 12 interceptions, after all. However, defensive touchdowns won’t continue for Pittsburgh, and Mayfield has done a better job at protecting the ball over the last two weeks.
Mayfield completed 64.3% of his passes in Denver and 68.4% of his passes against Buffalo without throwing an interception in either game. The Steelers’ TJ Watt will certainly find his way to Mayfield, but I like the former Heisman winner to continue to show better decision making. Plus, having Hunt as a short-yardage target in the passing game will help alleviate the inevitable pressure coming from Watt and Pittsburgh’s defensive line.
Thursday Football Betting Pick — Player Props
Here are the best Thursday Night Football player props via GridironIQ.
Nick Chubb Under 81.5 (PB) – Chubb is projected for 64.85 rushing yards. I’ll follow GridironIQ’s lead here as I think Hunt will be more involved in the running game this time around.
James Washington Over 35.5 yards (PB); Over 2.5 receptions (PB)- Washington continues to show chemistry with Mason Rudolph, turning 6 receptions on 7 targets into 90 yards and a touchdown against the Rams. Washington and Rudolph go way back, as Washington was Rudolph’s no. 1 receiver at Oklahoma State. Gridiron IQ projects Washington for 45.51 receiving yards Thursday night.
In addition to recommendations from GridironIQ, I’m pretty high on Odell Beckham this week, so I’ll be taking OBJ Over 4.5 Receptions (-154) and Over 61.5 receiving yards at FanDuel (-118). The receiver’s frustration with his lack of touches persists. Beckham used a baseball analogy, saying that he and his quarterback are close but that they’re just fouling off a couple of fastballs. I expect Mayfield and Kitchens to try their best to put the ball in OBJ’s hands against the Steelers. Once he has the ball, it’s all downhill from there.
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First Touchdown Scorer – OBJ +1100 at DraftKings
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Thursday Night Football Betting Picks — Monkey Knife Fight Player Props
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fight plays for Thursday Night Football:
Odell Beckham Over 4.5 Receptions
Nick Chubb Under 79.5 Rushing Yards
Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images