Monday Night Football Betting Picks: Cleveland at San Francisco

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Just when you think the Browns were a laughing stock, again, Cleveland went on the road and beat down the Ravens in remarkable fashion. Baker Mayfield efficiently passed for over 300 yards while Nick Chubb ran all over the once-vaunted Baltimore defense for 165 yards and three total touchdowns. Meanwhile, the 49ers are coming off of a bye in first place in the NFC West. Yes, first place. Yes, undefeated. I can’t believe it either. The narrative heading into this game was not what we expected but San Francisco is a betting favorite across online sports betting sites. Will the Browns build off of their Week 4 victory?

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Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Cleveland Browns +4 at San Francisco 49ers, O/U 46.5

Expectations for 2019 blew through the roof when the Browns made a big trade for Odell Beckham, Jr. The mercurial receiver rejoined his college buddy, Jarvis Landry, and one of the more exciting young players in the league in Baker Mayfield. Of course, just as the script was written, the Browns opened the season by getting destroyed by the Tennessee Titans. After the letdown, the Browns played better football with victories over the beleaguered Jets and division foe Ravens. Against the Ravens, the Browns looked especially dominant — racking up over 500 yards of offense while slowing down the white-hot passing of Lamar Jackson.

On the contrary, the expectations for the 49ers were not nearly as hyped as those of the Browns. Yet, the Niners open the NFL season with three straight victories — two of which saw San Francisco dominate the Bucs and Bengals. The offense has not inspired having Jimmy Garoppolo yet to put up gaudy numbers earlier in the 2019 campaign. The rest of the offense is a “Who’s Who?”… literally. Besides George Kittle, the 49ers lack offensive star power and get by with contributions from a shortlist of solid contributors. Kittle has yet to star — not crossing the 100-yard barrier this season.

Instead, the 49ers defense has been the star of the show with the group sitting in the top five in both total DVOA, pass DVOA, and rushing DVOA early in the NFL season. The 49ers boast seven takeaways on the season with five interceptions and two fumble recoveries. One of the picks went for six and the complementary play from the defensive side of the ball has surely aided an offense struggling to click early in the season. Baker Mayfield has been pressured on 77.4% of his dropbacks this season and might be running for cover against a bolstered Niners defense.

The Browns defense is no slouch with a DVOA sitting in the top ten. With regard to rushing, the Browns are in the bottom half but will not see a horse at running back. The game seems primed to be a slugfest with offenses that may struggle to put points on the board.

Monday Night Football Betting Pick: With the home team 49ers struggling to get their offense clicking and a defense that seems ready to make this game difficult on the Browns, I think I want to avoid sides on Monday night. Instead, with both defenses playing really well, I have an interest in the total — more specifically going below the total. Give me the under 46.5 points on FanDuel Sportsbook.

Monday Night Football Betting Picks — Player Props

Nick Chubb Under 111.5 Total Rushing and Receiving Yards (use our FanDuel promo code to get these odds)

After his explosion week against the Ravens last week, Nick Chubb might be a popular pick to run wild all over the 49ers. The San Francisco defense has impressed and could bottle Chubb up at home. After a huge week and with a pretty large number, I will shy away from recency bias and go under the total yardage prop.

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Thanks for reading. Come back throughout the week for more NFL betting picks and MLB Playoff picks.

Image Credit: USA Today Sports Images

About the Author

joeycis
Joe Cistaro (joeycis)

A high school mathematics teacher from New Jersey, Joe Cistaro (aka joeycis) is a lifelong fantasy sports fan. As a member of the RotoGrinders community, Joe cut his teeth writing for the website through the blogging program. Previously engaging the community with articles such as Home Run Derby and Finding Paydirt, Joe now focuses his time on sports betting content for both the NFL and the PGA TOUR. Follow Joe on Twitter – @ JoeCistaro