Monday Night Football Odds: Cardinals vs. Rams Picks and Prediction

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2022-01-17 19:15:22

Cardinals vs. Rams Odds

On Monday Night Football at Sofi Stadium, the Arizona Cardinals and the Los Angeles Rams will conclude the Wild Card round of this year’s NFL Postseason. The Cardinals opened the campaign with seven consecutive victories, but faltered down the stretch with losses in four of their final five contests. The Rams have been trending in the opposite direction, with wins in five of their last six games to end the regular season. Oddsmakers are anticipating a tightly-contested affair in this matchup, pricing Los Angeles as 3.5-point home favorites on the spread.

Cardinals

In two games against the Rams this season, Murray has thrown for 268 yards and 383 yards. Still, he has only a 2-to-2 touchdown-to-interception ratio in those two games, and only one victory. Since Week 13, Murray has only totaled more than 263 passing yards once, and Arizona has lost four of the last five games in which he started. His mid-season injury, coupled with the absence of DeAndre Hopkins, has caused undeniable problems for an offense that scored less than 20 points in two of their final four regular season contests.

Arizona finished the regular season 9th in opponent yards-per-attempt through the air. Despite a number of injuries during the latter half of the campaign, Arizona remained strong defending the pass over their final eight games, allowing only 7.1 yards-per-attempt, but they did allow a 67.3 completion percentage, and a 17-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio to opposing quarterbacks during that stretch. More concerning for Arizona in their Wild Card matchup is their weak run defense. Since Week 10, the Cardinals have allowed 4.4 yards-per-carry on the ground, including a problematic 5.0 yards-per-carry on outside rush attempts.

Rams

The Rams could be particularly well-equipped to exploit the Rams on these outside rush attempts, considering that Los Angeles averaged 6.1 yards-per-attempt on such carries over the final six weeks of the regular season. In that span, Sony Michel led the backfield with 84.9 percent of all rushing attempts. When these two teams met in December, Michel carried the ball 20 times for 79 yards in a winning effort. Los Angeles has one of the best offensive lines in the NFL, featuring Andrew Whitworth, David Edwards, Brian Allen, Austin Corbett, and Rob Havenstein. Expect this group to dominate the line of scrimmage on Monday.

The presence of Jalen Ramsey in the Los Angeles secondary often creates an illusion of superiority for this secondary unit. The reality is that the Rams finished the regular season ranked 22nd in opponent yards-per-attempt through the air. There are also metrics supporting a “bend-but-don’t-break” approach, considering that the Rams did rank 5th in the NFL in opponent passer rating in 2021. It is worth noting that the Los Angeles secondary is dealing with injuries as well–to the point that they felt compelled to sign 37-year-old Eric Weddle to play safety for them in the postseason. Since Week 13, The Rams have held their opponents to only 3.9 yards-per-carry on the ground. However, the Cardinals have abused the Rams on the ground in their two meetings this fall, averaging 5.3 yards-per-carry overall–and averaging 5.3 yards-per-carry or better on both inside and outside rushing attempts.

Wild Card Prediction

In two meetings this year, the Rams have averaged 7.3 yards-per-carry on outside rush attempts. Matthew Stafford committed more turnovers than any player in the NFL since Week 8, per The Athletic. Yet, his last game without an interception came in Week 14 against the Cardinals. If Stafford can take care of the football in this one, Los Angeles should be advancing to the next round of the postseason. Buy a half-point of insurance–take the Rams on Monday.

PICK: Rams -3 (-135)

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