Monday Night Football Odds: How to Bet Browns vs. Steelers
Monday Night Football Odds
| Browns Odds | +2.5 |
| Steelers Odds | -2.5 |
| Over/Under | 43 |
| Date | Jan. 3, 2022 |
| Time | 8:20 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Tonight, Cleveland Browns and the Pittsburgh Steelers will battle at Heinz Field on Monday Night Football. Following yesterday’s NFL action, the Browns are mathematically eliminated from the postseason, which has caused dramatic line movement in the market–flipping the spread from Cleveland being a field goal favorite to Pittsburgh being a field goal favorite. Notably, this will also be Ben Roethlisberger’s final home game after an illustrious Hall of Fame career.
Oddsmakers are anticipating Roethlisberger securing one final victory in front of the home fans, pricing Pittsburgh as a 2.5-point favorite on the spread. Now let’s look at each team before locking in our Monday Night Football pick.
Browns +2.5
If the Cincinnati Bengals would have lost to the Kansas City Chiefs yesterday, this contest between the Browns and Steelers would have, in essence, been a playoff game for both teams. However, a thrilling win for the Bengals clinched the AFC North division title on Sunday, leaving Cleveland on the outside of the postseason.
Cleveland will be without both of their starting safeties this evening, after ruling out John Johnson III with a hamstring injury and Ronnie Harrison Jr. with an ankle injury. Cornerback Troy Hill will miss his third consecutive game with a knee injury, further limiting the talent available in the secondary for this group. Defensive tackle Malik Jackson is also listed as questionable after logging limited practices on Friday and Saturday. Still, there is some hope for this defense on Monday, especially considering the fact that Myles Garrett gets to face arguably the weakest left-side of an offensive line in the league. Garrett should be able to create plenty of havoc in the backfield in this one, as long as he is healthy and fully recovered from a groin injury that he suffered two weeks ago.
Steelers -2.5
Pittsburgh’s offensive line remains of tremendous concern as we approach the end of the regular season. Per Pro Football Focus, only right guard Trai Turner ranks above average at his respective position on the offensive line. Bettors might assume that Roethlisberger and the passing attack could benefit from Cleveland missing both of their starting safeties, but it is unlikely that Pittsburgh is able to exploit this vulnerability. Last week against the Kansas City Chiefs, Roethlisberger completed only 37.5 percent of his passes for a 20.8 passer rating on throws 10-plus yards down-the-field. His prop is currently over/under 235.5 passing yards at Underdog Fantasy
On the defensive side of the ball, the Steelers have performed well-below their preseason expectations. This unit is allowing an NFL-worst 4.8 yards-per-carry on the ground in 2021. Pittsburgh has allowed 96 rushing yards or more in all but one game this year. They have not held an opposing team under 100 yards on the ground since Week 8, when they held Cleveland to 96 rushing yards. Pittsburgh has also struggled to stop the pass, permitting 7.4 yards-per-attempt–which ranks 25th in the NFL entering play on Monday. Even an injury-plagued Baker Mayfield should find some success through the air against this defense.
How to Bet Browns vs. Steelers Monday Night
Per EdgHouse, the Browns are 4-3 ATS this season as an underdog, and the Over is 4-3 in those contests–though the under has hit in each of the last three such games. The Steelers are only 1-5 ATS as a favorite this fall, with the under being 4-1-1 in those games. Notably, the only such game that hit the over was a prime time affair on Sunday Night Football at Heinz Field against the Chicago Bears. Thus far in 2021, Cleveland ranks 25th in plays run per game, and Pittsburgh ranks 12th in plays run per game. Over the last three weeks, both teams rank 19th or slower in pace of play. In a game between two offensively-challenged teams that is likely to be tightly-contested, we recommend a two-team teaser, taking the Browns on the favorable side of a touchdown, and pushing the total above the key number of 51.
Pittsburgh’s game totals have only hit higher than 51 points once since Week 11, and the Steelers have only one victory all season by more than seven points. The Browns have not had a game total reach 51 points since Week 10, which was also one of only two games this season in which they lost by greater than a touchdown.
TEASER: Browns +7.5, Under 51.5 (-122)
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