Monday Night Football Picks: Colts vs. Ravens Odds & Predictions

by Nick Galaida (nickgalaida) Last Updated 2021-10-11 23:34:31

Colts vs. Ravens Odds

The Indianapolis Colts and the Baltimore Ravens will conclude Week 5 of the NFL season on Monday Night Football at M&T Bank Stadium. In this prime-time showdown, oddsmakers are expecting a relatively easy win for Baltimore, pricing the Ravens as a touchdown favorite on the spread.

Let’s take a deeper look at the matchup to see where NFL bettors can find value at sportsbooks in this contest.

Indianapolis Colts +7

The Colts opened up the fall slate of action with three consecutive losses—losing to the Seattle Seahawks, Los Angeles Rams, and the Tennessee Titans. Indianapolis earned their first victory in Week 4 against a weak Miami Dolphins team led by backup quarterback, Jacoby Brissett. Carson Wentz continues to be incredibly underwhelming, having thrown for only 920 yards and five touchdowns through four contests, both of which rank 23rd or worse among NFL quarterbacks. Per CBS, the Colts’ offensive line ranks 20th in adjusted sack rate. In 2020, Wentz had a disastrous 48.6 passer rating when under duress. He could struggle in this one against an aggressive Baltimore pass rush.

The Colts have allowed the fourth-most passing yards per attempt in the NFL this season, letting opposing quarterbacks throw for 11 touchdowns against only three interceptions. Indianapolis’ run defense has been slightly better, permitting only 4.2 yards per carry, but even that number ranks only 15th in the league. The pass rush for this unit is unlikely to be good enough to get Lamar Jackson on the ground. The secondary is a mess with one of the worst cornerback trios in football. Indianapolis is also vulnerable to the deep ball, due to a lack of talent at safety with Julian Blackmon and Andrew Sendejo. The Colts are going to have a tough time keeping Baltimore off of the scoreboard in this one.

Baltimore Ravens -7

Lamar Jackson continues to have some embarrassing misses on throws deep down-the-field. However, he has also hit on some deep balls this year and somewhat surprisingly has thrown for 287 yards or more in back-to-back games. Jackson has another favorable matchup tonight against one of the worst secondary units in football. Baltimore is evidently very aware of their 100-yard rushing streak, after a controversial end to their Week 4 matchup against the Denver Broncos. On Monday Night Football, the Ravens have a chance to set the all-time NFL record with their 44th consecutive such game. Despite a porous offensive line, the Ravens should be able to hit triple-digits on the ground once again, facing an Indianapolis team that has allowed over 100 yards rushing in three of their first four games in 2021.

Ravens’ defensive coordinator Wink Martindale is famous for his aggressive blitz packages, and Martindale could be even more aggressive on Monday night, considering the plethora of injuries to the Colts’ offensive line. Calais Campbell and Marlon Humphrey have been predictably excellent for this unit through four games. Justin Houston and Chuck Clark have been pleasant surprises on this side of the ball, and have been significant contributors in Baltimore’s recent defensive surge. By far the biggest weakness for this unit is the rotation of sub-par linebackers in the middle of the field. Baltimore could be vulnerable to check-down passes to the Colts’ running backs in this one, but otherwise should have a strong defensive showing against an inferior Indianapolis offense.

Colts vs. Ravens Picks

It is a cliche in the NFL to say that games are won and lost at the line of scrimmage, but the adage is true. Tonight, the Ravens are poised to take advantage of an ailing Indianapolis offensive line with plenty of aggressive blitz schemes. Expect Carson Wentz to struggle when facing pressure, as he has during the majority of his career. Baltimore’s offensive line is not outstanding, but a commitment to running the ball, paired with an effective passing game against a weak Colts’ secondary should result in a comfortable win for the Ravens. Laying a touchdown in prime time is never ideal, but Baltimore is good enough to take advantage of a weak opponent tonight.

PICK: Ravens -7 (-110)

Prop Bet

It is incredibly perplexing as to why this prop is priced where it is on Monday Night Football. Sammy Watkins has totaled 44 or more receiving yards in each of his first four games this fall. Watkins has been targeted at least seven times in each of Baltimore’s first four contests and will face one of the weakest secondary units in football against the Indianapolis Colts. In fact, the Colts have allowed the third-most completions of 40-plus yards in 2021. If Watkins breaks free, he could very well cash this over for bettors on a single catch. More than likely, it will take a few receptions for him to hit 40 receiving yards, but this is a grossly mispriced line. Bettors should take advantage.

PROP: Sammy Watkins o39.5 receiving yards (-115)

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