MSI Day 1 - AlphaDraft/DraftKings: Slate 1
The Mid-Season Invitational is finally here and we get our first real taste of international play on a larger scale than that of IEM Katowice. The top teams from every region, including an International Wildcard will be in attendance vying for the top spot in the world at the half-way point in the season. While SK Telecom comes in as the favorite representing Korea, the rest of the teams are all in the mix for the next spot and it’s always interesting to see teams with unique regional strengths battling against foreign opponents. If you want to get some more knowledge of what to expect from some of these relatively unknown teams, be sure to check out the RotoGrinders projections under the Research Tools tab for a statistical look at what these teams bring to the table.
We should also note that there is a significant difference in the formatting between AD and DK for the tournament. DraftKings has a slate for the first set of games during Day 1 and a separate slate for the the second set which will also be played on Day 1. Meanwhile AlphaDraft is combining the two so the players score will be the total across both games on that given day. While I’m more partial to the format that DraftKings has elected, the segment at the bottom of the page will highlight some of the top plays from the combined slate on AlphaDraft and player analysis applies to both sites.
If you are looking for information on the second day one slate on DraftKings, check out this article.
Note: As always, if you want to try a new DFS site, be sure to click through a RotoGrinders link and use our DraftKings promo code and AlphaDraft promo code to receive the best perks in the industry.
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Let’s get into the games!
Royal Never Give Up (-350) vs Counter Logic Gaming (+250)
While CLG may not have the strong roster on paper, they come in to MSI after beating the talent laden TSM squad and they look to make a better impression internationally than the showing we saw at IEM. Coincidentally, CLG’s first game is against another team in RNG who failed to impress at IEM a couple of months ago as well. In this matchup, I expect the LPL representatives to have the advantage. There has been a lot of buzz about how good CLG is as a unit and how they may vie for a spot into the next round over a team like RNG but I just don’t see it. This version of Royal has too many carry threats and their masterful leader, Mata, should have them prepared for international play this time around. As far as the overall fantasy potential in this game overall, I’m not 100% sold this will be a bloodbath as many people are projecting. CLG often trades objectives and avoids the 5v5 teamfights to get map pressure elsewhere. For that reason, I’m shying on going all in on RNG and there may even be a couple of spots I like CLG players.
The top lane looks like Darshan and Looper should both be viable and each of them have the tendency for a unique pick so we could see a very interesting clash that leads to one of them being the primary fantasy stud for their team. I’d very slightly prefer Darshan in that scenario because in an even matchup, I’m taking the guy $800 cheaper. Aphromoo and Stixxay are the ones I’m staying away from and I expect big things from Mata and Wuxx. Some people have a fear of believing in a Chinese team after the catastrophe at Worlds last season but I’m willing to give this RNG team a shot at redemption and it all starts with CLG on the chopping block Wednesday morning.
Players to Target
-Huhi (DK $6,600) – Rarely do I find myself on board with rostering Huhi over other mid laners but from a value standpoint, I like Huhi as a possible flex in this matchup. The last time we saw both RNG and CLG at an international tournament, they both had a 3 game series against Fnatic. Statistically speaking, Huhi outperformed xiaohu in the matchup against Febiven and while I’m not trying to apply the transitive property to this matchup, I think it serves as a decent benchmark to show Huhi can perform decently on an international stage. I think Huhi has a fairly weak champion pool but I’d look for him to be in a more supportive role and he is also on the red side which means CLG may reserve the counter-pick for Huhi.
-Wuxx (DK $7,600) – Both wuxx and Stixxay may be playing their best League of Legends thus far in their young careers but in the ADC slot for this slate, I trust wuxx to put together a more solid performance and his upside is through the roof. To put it simply, I like the champion pool and skills that wuxx brings and I think he’s a notch above Stixxay. In addition to that, wuxx has the highest fantasy projections according to our data on Rotogrinders research tools so even if RNG falters, he still has a good shot to hit on value. After besting Deft, one of the best ADC’s in the world, it’s hard to bet against a player like wuxx.
-Royal Never Give Up Team (DK $5,200) – The safe (but costly) pick for this slate is SKT but if you want to grab the next safest option at a discount price, RNG is the play I’m taking. CLG has their strengths but the current meta game is just not in their favor. RNG has the tools to win this one quickly and efficiently and even if the game goes late, they have shown superior control of objectives like Baron to give themselves the chance to win late game teamfights.
G2 E-Sports (-138) vs Flash Wolves (+100)
This is a classic “strength on strength” matchup between two of the hottest teams coming into the tournament. The hype has been building for both squads as both the LMS and EU regions clamor to hold the title of 2nd best region behind Korea. As I said, both teams share similar strengths being the mid lane and jungle positions. This bodes well in the current meta and having talent at those spots is quite the recipe for success. Maple and Karsa had a strong showing at Worlds last year, proving they can duel with some of the best. Their European counter-parts Trick and Perkz have made similar impressions this year through domestic play and will look to show they can do the same at an international level.
Overall I’m giving G2 the edge in this matchup, though I still think Flash Wolves players are viable in this slate. I think having the blue side advantage in picks and bans will allow G2 to take some of Karsa’s best champions out of his hands and the ability to give Trick the edge in that department will be a large factor. While most eyes will be on the mid lane for this one, I’ll be keying on the bottom lane. Emperor and Hybrid, though talented, have been questionable in their decision making and against a world class support like Swordart, that could be damning. NL at ADC for FW may not be the most mechanically gifted player, but the team constantly feeds him resources and puts him in good situations to get kills. The question still remains if they will be able to do this against top tier international opponents and for that reason, I’ll be staying away from him in my lineups and I expect G2 to focus on shutting down NL through teleport plays from Kikis and pressure from Trick. Speaking of Kikis, he’s a player I think will have quite a low ownership number and might make a great play in tournament games.
Players to Target
-Kikis (DK $6,400) – He may not be a flashy, hard-carry type player, but he gets the job done and he’s averaging almost 9 assists per game on the season. His style of play fits perfectly in the team and the meta right now so I’m taking a hard look at him in a group of top laner’s that lacks a true fantasy stud.
-Trick (DK $6,000) – As I said before, I think G2 will use their picks and bans to give Trick the heavy advantage over Karsa. In which case, Trick will have even more value than it looks like to begin with. In his last 8 games during the playoffs Trick has 29 kills and 45 assists and he can be one of the primary carries for this G2 squad.
-Maple (DK $6,900) – Just to set the record straight, I like both Perkz and Maple in this game that should be a back and forth battle with a high kill total. I think the value and potential upside on Maple makes him a more appealing option and if you go with Kikis and Trick, it may be wise to hedge with Maple rather than going all in on a G2 stack. Maple exceeded the 10 assist mark in 5 of his 6 playoff games with only 3 deaths in that span.
-SwordArt (DK $5,000) – I never want to pay up too much for supports and having one in a close, back and forth game, is often just as profitable as a top tier support in a favorable matchup. SwordArt fits that mold perfectly and while he and NL may not be a feared duo, he is a playermaker that can put up strong assist numbers after averaging over 10 per game during the regular season.
SK Telecom T1 (-5000) vs Super Massive (+1100)
I won’t go too deep in my analysis of this one as it’s pretty cut and dry. SKT is the heavy favorite to win the whole tournament and Super Massive is the International Wildcard qualifier that has yet to face any opponents from a top 5 region this season. It is worth noting that SM may be the best International Wildcard team to play at a tournament like this but against the giants that are SKT, they have only the slightest of chances at pulling out an upset. Unfortunately for them, arguably their best player is mid laner Naru who will be up against Faker, you may have heard of him. Expect SKT to close this game out with limited kills and deaths. Efficient annihilation incoming.
Players to Target
-Faker or Bang (Both DK $8,300) – “This town ain’t big enough for the boths of us” – Some Western movie. Seriously it’s too much of a salary commitment to go with multiple SKT players and it’s likely only one of them will carry hard enough to hit value. I’m partial to Bang and I think the team will play around the bottom lane but Faker is always a strong choice in the mid lane and I’m even hoping SKT slips up a bit at times just to keep Super Massive in the game long enough for the fantasy numbers to inflate.
AlphaDraft Day 1 Slate
3 AlphaDraft Picks
-Faker (AD $7,800) – This one feels like a no brainer. He is probably a must-have in cash games and his ownership percentage is going to be through the roof but with matchups against SM and G2, Faker has only the 3rd highest salary even lagging behind Perkz. Faker lead the LCK in damage per minute and he’s well known for his ability to perform at the international stage so I feel like he is a must in any AD lineup.
-Aphromoo (AD $6,800) – CLG avoids playing arguably the top two teams in the tournament in G2 and SKT so if you want a slate to grab players like Aphromoo, this is the one to do it. I feel like Aphromoo is the safest pick among the lower tier supports and he had at least 10 assists in each win over TSM. If CLG picks up a win in either game, you can expect similar results. I think they could surprise either of these teams.
-MMD (AD $6,400) – By no means is MMD a star player for the Flash Wolves and he may even be the weakest link on the team. Having said that, FW is up against both of the LCS teams in this first round and after seeing MMD put together a very strong performance against the LMS’s best top laner Ziv, I trust him to hold his own against Kikis and Darshan. He’s coming off of a 3 game series with 12 kills, and 26 assists with only 3 deaths. He’s the cheapest top laner on AD and an absolute bargain in my book.