MSI Day 2 - AlphaDraft/DraftKings: Slate 1
The two week extravaganza that is the Mid-Season Invitational is underway in Shanghai and today we look at the three matchups from today’s group stage games. DraftKings and AlphaDraft are running a different style of slates for the tournament, but the analysis can largely be applied to both. We will have a separate article for the second DraftKings slate which can be found here.
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G2 Esports (-250) vs. Counter Logic Gaming (+200)
This is the game that many people are most looking forward to at MSI. North America vs. Europe is what people just can’t stop talking about, regardless of the state of the teams at any given time. It’s always difficult to truly compare the leagues as they only meet in small samples at international events, but Europe as a whole is ahead right now. G2 are a very impressive team, showing a wide range of skills throughout the entire season. CLG haven’t got nearly the same amount of individual talent that G2 has and it may show in this game if their typical preparedness and high level of coaching aren’t enough.
That said, as we saw in yesterday’s game against RNG, CLG did not show up at MSI without ideas. Despite the loss, they challenged the Chinese champions to the last second of what was likely the closest game that we’ll see at the tournament. They’ll need to continue to be creative against a team like G2, whose superior team fighting is matched by their equally impressive map play. Unlike teams in North America such as TSM, who can often be defined by one particular strength, G2 is all strength and offers very few weaknesses to exploit. Ultimately, CLG’s proven coaching and ability to play to higher levels than previously thought means that we must consider them an upset threat. However, I am beyond doubting G2. They are simply too strong across the Rift and are equipped to deal with Darshan split pushes, or any other unique strategy CLG may come up with.
Players to Target
Perkz ($7,700) – HuHi was a big part of CLG’s rather unique approach to their game against RNG yesterday and it paid off to some degree for NA’s team. It wasn’t enough in the end and it isn’t going to get any easier against European newcomer Perkz. He’s a star in the making and is much more talented. Except Perkz to be on an aggressive champion and for HuHi to respond by hiding behind his tower.
Trick ($6,600) – MVP Trick at $6,600 is difficult to pass on against any opponent, much less an underwhelming CLG roster. Except Trick to have some Dardoch-like ownership on this slate, and for good reason. Don’t miss out.
Aphromoo ($4,500) – If you’re looking for a punt, but the prospects of rolling with Dumbledoge doesn’t excite you, Aphro is your best bet. After putting up 20 assists and playing quite well yesterday, there’s no reason to think he won’t be heavily involved in any CLG upset or bloody style of gameplay.
SK Telecom T1 (-393) vs. Royal Never Give Up (+299)
As I write this, RNG have yet to play their second game, so I’m reacting solely to their less than stellar play against CLG from game 1. The LPL champions did come away with the win after a 42 minute ace and deserve credit for turning away a resilient CLG, of course. In the end though, it’s troubling to see the home team struggle against a weaker team who has just traveled from California to China. RNG are one of the teams who are thought to have a chance to unseat SKT at MSI and while that hasn’t changed just yet, it’s hard to have much faith in that happening.
SKT, of course, need no introduction. They are the favorites here and should be strongly considered as your top plays in any format. Both teams are known for their ability to fight and if RNG sticks to their usual style, it only favors SKT’s ability to rack up fantasy points even more. This is not a spot to fade SKT. Exposure is virtually mandatory in all lineups and anyone avoiding the world champ’s is going to pay the price.
Players to Target
Bang ($8,200) – Bang is my SKT damage dealer in this game. Not that there is anyone who can truly test the greatness that is Faker, but xiaohu is a great talent in the mid lane and I’d simply rather target RNG’s duo lane with Bang.
mlxg ($4,900) – Both teams should be active enough in this game that a jungler of mlxg’s quality at $4,900 is going to be difficult to pass on. SKT are far from afraid to give up deaths if they feel they’ll be gaining a gold or map advantage, which means a likely scenario of mlxg paying off his kind of price tag.
Duke ($7,200) – With Darshan and Kikis facing each other, both of whom I’d be interested in if they weren’t going head-to-head, I think paying for Duke is our best option. Looper is no slouch of a lane opponent though and I’m tempering expectations here.
Flash Wolves (-899) vs. SuperMassive (+577)
Each and every slate of MSI is going to face us facing the dilemma of whether or not to roster players against SuperMassive. Flash Wolves players are not priced out of my range on this slate, thankfully. They’re still coupled with quite a bit of risk, as every team who faces SM will be. FW can fight, though, and each team will have their own idea of what the best way to attack and defeat a team of SM’s caliber is. FW prices can be had somewhat comfortably on this slate and targeting them is advisable in moderation.
Can we look at SM players? We can. Sort of. If and only if you are looking to stack your entire roster with a team full of your favorite players should you consider punting a SM players. SM is a favorite to lose all six of their games at MSI and hunting for an upset is much more likely to hurt our bankrolls than to win us a tournament.
Players to Target
Flash Wolves, TEAM ($6,400) – Simply put, FW’s TEAM slot just isn’t all that much more expensive than other favorites. There’s little reason to not strongly consider working them in. Yes, SKT is a good option, but they are not a mortal lock against the home team. Flash Wolves are the lock.
Karsa ($7,500) – Karsa is one of my favorite players at MSI and I see no reason not to grab him on this slate. His stats across the board in the LMS this season were strong and he should have the easiest time reaching value of all FW players in this game.
AlphaDraft Targets
Duke ($7,400) – Duke is mentioned above as well, but it’s worth noting him here as well. Too cheap in a weak lane.
Maple ($7,400) – Borderline out of my price range on DraftKings, Maple is a near must play on AlphaDraft.
Blank ($7,700) – This is something of a contrarian play that is also safe at the same time. SKT junglers are historically less than sexy plays, but the upside remains and ownership may be surprisingly low.
Good luck in the games and don’t forget to check out our second slate article.