MSI Day 3 - Slate 2
If you’re reading this, you’ve survived with me through two of the most insane tournament days in League history. Perhaps even two and a half if you’re scrambling late tonight to join in on the day’s 2nd trio of group stage games. Needless to say, it’s been a ride, with no player, team or fan coming away unscathed. Please send help should the remaining games this week continue on this trend. Jokes aside, let’s get into the games and try to make sense of this event.
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Check out the Slate 1 breakdown here!
Flash Wolves (+453) vs. SK Telecom T1 (-650)
First and foremost, SKT is still SKT. While it’s fair to say that losing one game during the group stage for any team is fairly standard, for SKT to lose twice already is certainly a big surprise. Still, this is what SKT has been this season. The team struggled throughout the first half of the regular season, only to push their way into the playoffs in the back half. The rest was history, as they did as SKT does, and destroyed everything in their path in the playoffs. I still expect SKT to do just that at MSI, and in convincing fashion.
Ultimately, the group stage is forgiving enough that SKT’s losses are unlikely to matter, which is probably part of how they happened in the first place. Flash Wolves have likely awoken the beast though, and are extremely unlikely to tame it for the second day running. Hop on SKT here while others count on the Wolves to grab another win.
Players to Target
Faker ($8,400) – I’m going back to Faker here. It’s sometimes hard to recognize Faker as the star he is because he plays in a far away league, but just as we do with traditional fantasy, play your studs. Faker is going to be seeking revenge and the pain he can deal isn’t something FW can handle if he’s on his game.
Karsa ($4,600) – At this price, we do still have to grab our FW exposure. It’s not about yesterday’s win or looking for a repeat. It’s the fact that FW are a little too strong to be shut out, and a jungler of Karsa’s ability will surpass value at $4,600 against any opponent.
Counter Logic Gaming (-500) vs. SuperMassive (+367)
Obviously, this is the pairing where things went crazy yesterday. CLG’s results have afford them the ability to drop a game to SuperMassive and still likely progress through to the semifinals, but a second loss to the IWC team in Shanghai would be a disaster, and could put them back on the road to being eliminated. Because of that, you have to think they’ll be ready to roll and avoid playing a mindless fight-oriented game like they did yesterday.
It’s not all that surprising to see SuperMassive take a game off someone, as they’ve certainly been competitive enough to say they deserve to be there as the IWC representative. What was surprising is that at just 12 minutes into the game, there had already been 16 kills between CLG and SM. That’s not CLG’s game. They’ve clearly been more willing to fight thus far at MSI, but allowing themselves to take so many 50/50 fights against an opponent that shouldn’t be underestimated wasn’t like them. Again, one of the many reasons I expect CLG to win the rematch is because they’re not a team that makes the same mistake twice. They’ll be more than prepared for this.
Players to Target
Stixxay ($8,300) – Ugh. Okay, here we go again, back on the crazy train that is NA Finals MVP Stixxay. Inconsistent play is going to be a concern going forward, especially against better teams. However, SM is a team that CLG should be able to feed the Stixxay and he should be able to take advantage of being the focus.
Naru ($5,800) – Is it possible that CLG falls into the IWC trap again? You’d have to say so, if only because teams at this tournament seem extremely prone to playing to their opponents level. I do believe CLG will pull out a win, but SM would be wise to continue the brawling and hope for CLG to make the same mistakes.
G2 Esports (+221) vs. Royal Never Give Up (-279)
Subject to change in the first set of today’s games, but we have the tournament’s only winless team against the only team who has yet to lose. It’s unfortunate to say and see, but G2 have embarrassed themselves and their region at MSI. Excuses piled onto more excuses instead of just shutting up and putting their best foot forward. Now they have a mountain to climb and to try to earn Europe a seed at the World Championships later this year. I don’t see it happening, especially not against a Royal team that is rounding into form in front of the hometown crowd.
How does G2 win? By simply playing their game, which is something they have yet to do at MSI. I am still extremely high on G2’s ability and long term prospects. I don’t truly believe that they or Europe have been exposed at MSI, despite it appearing that way. They’re likely done at MSI, but I’m not counting them out just yet. Kikis and Perkz in particular will need serious improvement, though. Kikis has been one of the tournament’s weakest players, while Perkz is just off his game. Being off your game against xiaohu and RNG is a recipe for an easy loss. Let’s see how the 17 year old responds, but he may not be at a point in his career where he’s able to handle the international stage and pressure that follows.
Players to Target
Royal Never Give Up, TEAM ($4,800) – This one seems obvious. Both SKT and CLG have already lost to the opponent they face on this slate and are well over $1,000 more expensive than RNG, who face 0-4 G2. G2 may very well win, but we aren’t passing on this price against them.
Looper ($6,500) – As noted, Kikis has been a weak link, and RNG knows it. Looper put up a boring 1/1/5 against G2 in their first match, for an abysmal KP of 37% and a repeat of that would be a disaster for our lineups, but it’s unlikely. Unless G2 completely rolls over and the top lane is a non-factor, he should get his.
Mata ($5,300) – I’m going here again, because it worked out beautifully yesterday. This guy is amazing to watch, and has only put up less than 30 in one game.