MSI Day 3: AlphaDraft/DraftKings - Slate 1
We are through two days of the Mid-Season Invitational and as upsets abound it’s anyone’s trophy to win at this point. Heavy favorites SKT have shown to be more than mortal and sit in the middle of the pack while EU darkhorse G2 has fallen flat thus far. The last leg of the first round robin begins with this slate and it’s important to keep in mind that DraftKings and AlphaDraft are running different styles of slates but the analysis below can apply to both sites.
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Check out the Slate 2 breakdown here!
Flash Wolves (+127) vs Royal Never Give Up (-155)
So it turns out home-field advantage does apparently exist in League of Legends. The heroes of Shanghai are playing great through the first 2 days of MSI and while it’s clear Mata is still a world-class support, players like wuxx and xiaohu have been absolutely massive benefiting not only the RNG squad but daily fantasy players as well. If you want action, watch RNG and having them in your lineup feels like a must because of the sheer volume they are generating. RNG had 48 kills in their first 2 games and they still had 15+ kills in each game on day 2 as well. As for the Flash Wolves, they still have talented players but it’s still very clear you really only want Karsa and Maple. This game is shaping up to be a bloodbath so I’m comfortable with an RNG stack and slotting in a FW player where I can. Both of these teams were able to pull off huge upsets against SKT on the second day and this game will go a long way for both in proving they can contend for the top spot at MSI.
Players to Target
-Karsa (DK $5,600) – Karsa has been a fun player to watch thus far in the tournament and he’s been, as expected, one of the primary carry threats on FW. The team relies on his damage meaning he will likely always have fantasy value to some degree. I like both him and mlxg in this one to put up solid numbers but I think Karsa has the best pure value in cash games. On the first day he led all junglers with 12 kills through 2 games.
-Xiaohu (DK $7,300) – I was high on him coming into the tournament but boy has he been impressive. From his late game Azir fighting against CLG to his dominance in the early game against Faker, I feel very comfortable locking him in as my mid laner on this slate despite the tough matchup. RNG having the counter-pick on red side could be massive for his success.
-Mata (DK $5,500) – Nobody had more assists on the first day (34) than Mata and his bloodthirsty team generates numerous opportunities for big fantasy numbers. With RNG clicking on all cylinders I really think Mata is a huge beneficiary fantasy wise.
-Wuxx (DK $7,400) – Another bright star for China’s team, wuxx has beaten EDG’s Deft and SKT’s Bang in the past 3 weeks. Now he’s against NL who has the worst laning phase of all the ADC’s at MSI as well as the lowest damage percentage (19%) so I expect Wuxx and Mata to really assert themselves and feed wuxx kills into the mid/late game.
Counter Logic Gaming (+425) vs SK Telecom T1 (-600)
Had Counter Logic Gaming not fallen to Super Massive, we may have been talking about a longshot upset but with the amount of flaws we’ve seen from CLG, it’s hard to imagine a scenario where they can beat Korea’s finest. Even when SKT lost two games, they were down by so much and still pushed the game past the 60-minute mark against RNG showing there is no team in the world better at damage control. I don’t necessarily recommend paying up for an SKT stack as I have a lot invested in that FW vs RNG game and the salaries just make it really tough. I expect a bounce back performance from Faker but I’m prioritizing Duke who has been really solid and was one of the bright spots for SKT against RNG. CLG is obviously worth avoiding and the only player I’m even considering is Aphromoo but that’s more of a contrarian punt play in the support role.
Players to Target
-Duke (DK $7,700) – Duke may be the most consistent SKT player in the tournament thus far aside from Bang. I also think he is a bigger notch above the rest at his position more than anyone else on SKT. Despite some early tourney success from CLG, look for SKT to put their foot down and punish this team the way they did G2. It just may take a little longer, but that also means more potential for fantasy points.
-Aphromoo (DK $3,700) – This is just so dirt cheap for a good support so I’ll at least consider Aphromoo in cash games and a bit more in tournament play. Even if the kill total for CLG is lower than SKT, Aphro is likely to be involved in almost all of them.
Super Massive (+367) vs G2 E-Sports (-500)
We finally saw an IWC team win and it only took until the 2nd day of MSI for Super Massive to defeat CLG in convincing fashion. G2 should be on upset alert because it wasn’t just a random occurrence for SM but rather a controlled victory. The good thing for G2 is what we’ve seen from the mid lane. Perkz may not be playing anywhere close to the level we expected, but Naru has looked very tentative against mid laners above his skill level and the matchup against Huhi was one of the few times Naru had a chance to win lane. The Achuu and Dumbledoge bottom lane may be able to hang with their G2 counterparts but the solo laners should be able to carry this one if they avoid a catastrophic early game which has seemed to plague G2 through the first 4 games. I really just can’t see another game where Perkz has twice as many deaths as kills considering it only happed once to Perkz in the entire EU Spring Split. Everyone will likely be selling their stock in G2 and going for the trendy Super Massive team but I’m not sold they can pull off two upsets in a row against a flawed, but talented G2 team.
Players to Target
-Perkz (DK $8,100) – This is essentially a must win for the team and Perkz is the star player. I expect the team to take out a lot of anger in this one as they have gotten off to a rough start, worse than many could have imagined. Not many encouraging stats to back this up from MSI so far, but we know Perkz is an elite EU talent that will surely find his way against an inferior opponent.
-G2 Team (DK $5,800) – If you don’t pay up for the near-lock SKT, taking G2 against a struggling Wildcard team is the obvious play. It may not be easy points in the bank, but I feel pretty confident that G2 can get on the board with a win and possibly even secure the bonus for a win in less than 30 minutes.
AlphaDraft Full Slate Top 3 Plays
-Bang (AD $8,000) – With Faker having some inconsistent performances, Bang is going to be the true carry threat. He has two favorable matchups against FW and CLG making him my favorite ADC of the slate and probably my “must-have” player on AlphaDraft.
-Karsa (AD $7,200) – This is a lot about volume. This Flash Wolves team really like to fight and play around Karsa and Maple. They also get a game against RNG a team that generates kills for themselves, but also surrenders quite a few deaths as well. The price is right for the value and I don’t really value any of the top salary junglers that much higher than Karsa even considering the matchup. Unless an opponent focuses on banning out a bunch of junglers, Karsa should be in line for a solid fantasy day.
-Mata (AD $7,500) – I don’t mind paying up for a support in this scenario for a few reasons. First off, Mata has proven to be the best support in this tournament making play after play, keeping his team in these games. Also, as I’ve alluded to before, this RNG team is generating such a high volume of kills that even in the event that they lose I’m still confident he can generate enough assists to be valuable in daily.