NASCAR 5-Hour Energy 301: By the Numbers
Hopefully everyone enjoyed the race last weekend, as the new rules package made for a really fun race to watch. I’ve been working with a couple guys from NASCAR, and I’m going to try a different type of article this week; I’m going to be breaking down the loop data from the past 20 races at New Hampshire and providing you some in depth picks.
I can only go off the feedback from you guys, so please let me know what you think of the new format.
Jeff Gordon – Starting 23rd – Looking at the Loop Data from above, Gordon has the highest Driver Rating over the last 20 races here. Starting 23rd this weekend, Gordon presents a ton of value. He has a great chance to move up (+159 Pass Differential) and has an average finish of 10.7, which presents a good chance for Place Differential. Gordon also has the most Fastest Laps and the highest Quality Pass percentage. At his price this weekend, he’s an excellent cash game option on DraftKings.
Kyle Larson – Starting 17th – Larson did us a favor this weekend, and will be starting in the 17th position. He only has two races at this track but has an average finish of 2.5 in those races. He ran 72.9% of his laps in the top 15 at those races and was able to pick up laps led and fastest laps. He was able to pick up a good amount of green flag passes last year, and this is a track the team is focusing on for their win to get into the chase.
Tony Stewart – Starting 25th – I won’t recommend Stewart as a cash game player this season, but he does present a ton of upside at this track. Stewart has the second-highest Driver Rating and has the highest percentage of Laps Led. With an average finish of 10.8, Stewart presents value with his place differential this weekend. He’s really having a down season, but this could be exactly what he needs to get his win and be eligible to make the Chase.
Landon Cassill – Starting 13th – Using the Loop Data, I can really see that Cassill has a good chance of going backward this weekend. Cassill has an average finish of 31.7 and has the third lowest pass differential at -71. His price tag might seem intriguing this weekend, but the negative Place Differential is very likely at this track. I’m not saying to fade him this weekend, but I won’t be using him in cash games.
Carl Edwards – Starting 1st – I’m still bitter about Edwards running really good last weekend, but I’m going right back to avoiding him this weekend. He’s only led 1.2% of the laps over the last 20 races here and has a very fast Joey Logano starting next to him. I wouldn’t be shocked if Logano gets out front early, and Edwards doesn’t lead anything early. He has the second lowest Pass Differential, and an average finish of 13.7 here. As you can tell from the first chart, Edwards is on the lower end of the Driver Rating among the top drivers.
Value Plays
Trevor Bayne – Starting 31st – I’ve been debating on Bayne and Biffle for my cash game lineup, and I will likely make the decision Sunday morning. Bayne will be popping his New Hampshire cherry for the NASCAR Cup Series this weekend. Bayne has put together 5 solid races in a row and has another good opportunity for positive Place Differential this weekend. He has four races here in the XFINITY Series. He’s put together three top 10s, and with an average Driver Rating of 98.9 in those four races.
Alex Bowman – Starting 40th – Bowman is my bottom of the barrel, value pick I want this weekend. As long as he can stay out of trouble, I really like his chance for positive points this weekend. He had an average start of 35.5 last season, with an average finish of 29.5 in two races. He’s not going to score laps led or fastest laps, but for his price you won’t need much more than a 10-12 plus Place Differential.
Pick To Win
Denny Hamlin – Starting 5th – I really like Kyle Busch and Brad Keselowski this weekend. My gut feeling is telling me that Hamlin is going to be the man this weekend. He has 18 races here at New Hampshire and has the 3rd highest Driver Rating among active drivers. He has won twice (2007, 2012) and has put together 7 top 5 finishes in that 18 race span. He was really impressive last weekend, and I really like his chances to carry that over this weekend.
Thanks again for reading my weekly article, and I’m always open to any feedback you guys have. If you’re still new to Daily Fantasy NASCAR, make sure to check out the podcast I recorded with Gabey this week.