NASCAR By the Numbers: Bristol Night Race
I hope everyone had great results at Michigan last weekend, and I’m excited to be back on the grind this week. This week we have the most action-packed race of the season, and a ton of bonus points for laps led. Bristol features 500 laps that equal 125 bonus points for laps led this weekend. Targeting drivers that qualified well will be key because of pit selection this weekend.
Kyle Busch – Starting 2nd – I was debating Kyle and Matt all week, and after qualifying I’m giving the edge to Busch. This has been one of his best tracks, and starting out front gives him a ton of upside. No active driver has led more laps or ran fastest laps than Kyle Busch. Kyle has five wins at Bristol but hasn’t won here since 2011. I think he’s in a great spot this weekend, and I think he will be the highest scoring driver.
Denny Hamlin – Starting 1st – When building lineups this weekend, please take into account what pit stalls people have. We don’t have to worry about that with Denny Hamlin, he’s getting the prime spot this weekend. Deciding to pair Hamlin up with Busch this weekend will win or lose you a lot of money. If Hamlin doesn’t get out in front of Busch to start the race, there’s a good chance he doesn’t hit value. He has started on the pole twice in the last four years, and his top finish was sixth with four laps led. To fade Hamlin, or not to fade him, will be the question this weekend. I personally want some exposure, but I’m not going all in on him this weekend.
Jeff Gordon – Starting 24th – As you can see above, Gordon comes up on almost all the top loop data stats this weekend. He has the second highest driver rating since 2005, and the second highest driver rating over the last five races. He runs 79.1% of his laps in the top 15, which is second only behind Matt Kenseth. Those are the positives for taking Gordon. He’s risky, and couldn’t stop talking about how bad the car was during qualifying. Jeff is one of the best drivers at adjusting during the race and did that earlier this season at Bristol. He started 23rd and finished third without leading any laps.
Kyle Larson – Starting 12th – I think Kurt Busch is another solid play around this starting spot, but Larson comes at a nice discount to Busch on most sites. Larson has been above average in all three of his starts at Bristol, including what he did here earlier this season. He started 14th in April and led 90 of the 511 laps picking up a seventh-place finish. He likes his car again, and I expect him to pick up a top ten finish. Larson is currently 20th in points and really needs a win to make the chase, could be a go big or go home night for the #42 team.
Value Plays
Tony Stewart – Starting 40th – All I heard from Stewart during qualifying, “Entry is fine. I just can’t get in the gas” and “Can’t get into gas without getting sideways”. I see these issues being fixed during the race, and I like Stewart’s value for picking up place differential points this weekend. He started 37th in March of 2014 and drove his way to a fourth-place finish. The risk reward is there for Stewart this weekend, but I think you need some exposure to him starting this far back.
Landon Cassill – Starting 39th – I’m not a big fan of punting with the new six-driver format, but if I were to do it, I would be using Cassill this weekend. He’s a guy that is use to starting at the back in Bristol, and has positive place differential in five of his last six races here. I don’t see a ton of upside here, and like I said, I’m not a big fan of punting. I really like Stenhouse, and I don’t see a reason to go under him this weekend.
There are three races left before the chase begins, and everyone from 12th back is in risk of missing the chase. The drivers 15th and back, are going to be extremely aggressive to pick up a win. Kasey Kahne was quoted “At this rate we’re going to need to win, that’s the only way we’ll go into the Chase”.
Greg Biffle has six top fives, and 13 top tens in his career at Bristol. Paul Menard leads the series in starts (16) with the fewest DNFs (0) at Bristol. Clint Bowyer has never won at Bristol but hasn’t finished worse than 17th in his last seven races here.
Thanks for checking out my article again this week, and you can find my cash game video here.