NASCAR Cash Game and GPP Picks: Dover
Last weekend was a lot of fun, and I hope everyone enjoyed DFS NASCAR as much as I did. I was a Jimmie Johnson wreck away from a monster day, but was still able to have a good day. Wrecks are going to be tilting for NASCAR, but will also present some edge with hedging some picks. I’m excited to dive back into the statistics for the Monster Mile.
I’ll be doing the article a little different this week, as we’re trying to see what works the best for everybody moving forward. This week I’ll be featuring three cash game picks, three GPP picks, three drivers I don’t like, and a section to come back after qualifying and final practice. This last section will be done Saturday night, and will be up for everyone no later than 9 Eastern. As always I welcome any and all feedback about what you’d like to see moving forward.
Cash Game Picks
Jimmie Johnson – He was my top pick last week, and I’m going right back to the well this week. We have seen that laps led and fastest laps are going to be key with the scoring on DraftKings. Johnson has triple-digit laps led in ten of the last 12 races, and at least ten fastest laps in 12 straight races here. Over the last 20 races at Dover, Johnson has led 32.2% of the total laps. He has been absolutely dominating this track for over ten years, and has won seven of the last 20 races here. The big wreck from last week might scare some people off, but he’s by far my top option for cash games.
Matt Kenseth – Joey Logano will be a popular pick this weekend, but Matt Kenseth is the guy I’ll be rostering. Kenseth has been very good at Dover, and comes in with an average finish of 11.3 over the last 20 races. Since 2005, only Jimmie Johnson and Carl Edwards have more fastest laps at Dover. Kenseth has a total of 471 fastest laps, which accounts for 6.6% of the total amount of laps. He has four top-three finishes out of the last five races here, and won the event in 2011. Not only has he been running fast laps, he has led 9.6% of the total laps since 2005. I’m really high on Matty K this weekend, and will try to make him and Johnson a staple in a lot of lineups.
Greg Biffle – The Biff is coming off his second top-ten of the season, and has really started the season on the wrong foot. This is a track Biffle has excelled at throughout his career. He has two wins with six top-fives, and a driver rating of 97.4, which is the fifth best among active drivers. Fastest laps are a great stat to gain a little more for cash games, and Biffle has 435 fastest laps which is fourth most among active drivers. I love his price on DK this weekend, and think he will perform a lot better than most.
Tournament (GPP) Picks
Carl Edwards – A lot can be argued for Martin Truex Jr here as well, but I expect him to be much higher owned than Edwards. Edwards’s back flipped his way into victory lane this weekend, and will try to make it two races in a row. The thing that has really stood out to me this week with Edwards, he has the second-most fastest laps behind Jimmie Johnson since 2005. He has the second-most Quality Passes behind Jeff Gordon in that same span, and has the third-highest pass differential (144). Edwards could easily drive through the pack if he gets behind, and I love his average finish of 10.2 at this track.
Kyle Busch – I was so impressed with how good he was in his first race back last weekend. Behind Johnson and Kenseth, Busch has the third highest driver rating over the last 20 races at this track. He has the second highest Quality Pass Percentage (passes of cars in the top 15 under green flags), and an overall pass differential of 110. He’s second to Johnson with a 12.6% laps led since 2005. Busch is a very aggressive driver with a ton of upside for DFS. His aggressiveness makes him a guy I only want to target in GPPs this weekend.
Tony Stewart – I know you are probably thinking I’m crazy right now, but Stewart is my sleeper pick to win the race this weekend. If there’s a track he can win and get himself into the Chase, Dover has to be atop of the list. He has a win, a seventh, and a fourteenth in his last three races here with a very nice +35 place differential. Stewart leads all active drivers in positions improved in the last 10% of the race at Dover. A lot of stats will tell you to stay away from Stewart this weekend, but he’s a guy I have a bold, gut feeling about, and a guy I will be using in GPPs.
The Funk
Ryan Newman – I couldn’t think of a name for this section, so I decided to call it the funk (three guys I’m not on). Newman has been excellent at qualifying here, and is tied with Jeff Gordon for most poles among active drivers. With that said, he has a pass differential of -207 over the last 20 races here. He’s only led 3.1% of the total laps in that span, despite having four poles. If he had a lot of DNF’s, the negative pass differential would make sense, but he only has 2 DNF’s in 26 races here. He’s won at Dover three times, so he might be a guy people target this weekend, but I just don’t see it this weekend for him.
Kasey Kahne – Kahne was one of the highest owned drivers last weekend, and will be a guy I want nothing to do with this weekend. He has really struggled throughout his career at Dover, and only has one top five out of 22 races. He has 6 DNF’s in that span, and has really never put it together at Dover. His average starting spot is 12.8 with an average finish of 19.9. The DNF’s have weighed that down a lot, but with only .7% of laps led since 2005, Kahne is a guy that is high up on my Funk list.
Paul Menard – People that watched and played fantasy NASCAR for the first time last weekend will be on Menard this weekend. He was a cheap guy last weekend that had a really nice race. Menard like Newman has a really negative pass differential (-84). In 15 races at Dover, Menard has no top fives, and only two top tens. I don’t think he will be a guy that finishes at the back of the pack, but I don’t see any upside with him this weekend.
Qualifying and Final Practice Thoughts and Value Picks
My first thought after seeing qualifying and the last two practices is, “Man Joe Gibbs Racing is fast this weekend.” In final practice, they had four of the five fastest cars. With Denny Hamlin being the fastest, and starting on the pole, he could really put up a monster day if he’s able to stay out front. I like Hamlin for cash games, and I think our first NASCAR team stack is in play this weekend. I still stick behind the three guys I wrote up, and I think you can add Hamlin to the list.
I’ve moved off Biffle for cash games, but I still think he’s in play for GPPs. He qualified in the seventh spot, and that really scares me. In second practice, he was eighth fastest over a ten-lap period, but the qualifying so high has me off of him. I still want some exposure to him in GPPs, and I still like his price if you want to risk the place diff.
Tony Stewart is extremely risky in this race. He will start 26th, which doesn’t seem great from a qualification perspective, but it does give him plenty of chances to move up the field and earn points in the DFS game. He was really slow in both practices, and just can’t seem to get the car right. His history at this track still makes me want to risk a few GPP lineups on him, but there’s no way I touch him in cash games.
Sam Hornish Jr. – I told you I’d give you a couple value plays with this new section. Hornish Jr. qualified in the 28th spot, and is under 8k on DraftKings this weekend. In the second practice, he was ninth fastest over a ten-lap period. He has run very strong lately, and could be the highest scoring driver under 8k. I think a lot of people will be on Stenhouse Jr. at the same price, but I like Hornish Jr. a lot more for Sunday.
Brian Scott – For a lot of the same reasons, I like Scott as a value play. He was 12th fastest in second practice over a ten-lap period, and like Hornish Jr., could move through the field with a fast car. He’s starting in the 27th spot, and is the GPP value play I’m looking at. They’re not running for points, and he truly is a boom or bust type play.
I will check back throughout the night, and in the morning. Any questions, leave me a comment.