NASCAR DFS & Betting Preview: Busch Light Clash 2023 Odds & Pricing
Welcome to the start of the 2023 season! I’ll be providing a free article with some early week bets, core plays, and a preview. I’m looking forward to the second season with the next gen car.
Race Preview
We are back! NASCAR is holding the Busch Light Clash at the Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum for the second straight year. NASCAR has built a quarter-mile racetrack inside the LA Coliseum. Just like last season, there will be three timed practice sessions, and Saturday night, there will be single vehicle qualifying. Each car will get three laps, and after their run, NASCAR will impound the cars. Qualifying will set the field for the heat races. The heat races start at 5pm EST and should take 15 to 20 minutes each. Last season, 23 cars competed in the Clash; 27 cars will make the field this year. Assuming the last-chance races take 20 to 30 minutes each, we should know the official starting lineup around 7pm EST. With 150 laps in the main, teams won’t need to pit for fuel.
DraftKings NASCAR Fantasy Preview
It’s back! DraftKings has a $200,000 tournament ($50,000 to first place) posted for the Clash. This is an exhibition race with so many unknowns. We can use data to help predict it better than last season, but it’s still a one-off race on a temporary racetrack. The heat races on Sunday afternoon will set the lineup for the race. The top five from each heat race automatically gets into the main. The top three from each last chance will also get into the race, and the 27th spot is 2022 points provisional. I think people will use the data from last year’s race, and while I don’t mind looking at it, I won’t be using it for a lot. It was the first race with the new car, on a new track, and limited practice. We now have a full season with this car, and teams made a lot of gains.
With only 150 laps, there is a potential for 67.5 fastest lap points and 37.5 laps led points on DraftKings. Assuming FanDuel posts contests, there will be a potential of 15 laps led points and 15 laps completed points.
2022 Optimal Clash Lineup
Kyle Busch $9,000 – 67.35
Joey Logano $8,800 – 65.75
Erik Jones $6,000 – 56.05
Austin Dillon $6,200 – 51.15
AJ Allmendinger $6,900 – 49.25
Kevin Harvick $8,000 – 48.85
Track position was extremely important last season, and after looking through the data on short flat tracks, track position is going to be important again on Sunday night. Kyle Busch and Joey Logano had 20 fastest laps, with average running positions of 1.7 and 2.5. Fastest laps were spread out, with six drivers having at least seven fastest laps each. Blaney, Elliott, and Byron were the three fastest cars on short flat tracks last season. If we narrow it down to just Martinsville (under 1-mile short flat track), Blaney, Elliott, Bell, and Byron were the fastest cars. At the end of the day, I’m going to be focusing on roster construction and track position more than last season. I think it will be tough to pass, and we could see more traffic with a few extra cars this season.
Busch Light Clash Betting Odds
Ryan Blaney +1000 (.5 unit)
Blaney was the best car not to get the win in the 2022 season. Looking at the nine flat tracks, Blaney had the best average running position and the best driver rating. He also had the most top five finishes in those races. I like getting one of the best drivers on this type of track at 10/1 to start the week.
Christopher Bell +800 (.5 unit)
I was looking through the last three short flat track races of the season, and Bell was jumping off the page for me. JGR in general had a lot of speed in those races, and Bell had the best raw speed. My early-week model has him as a top three car before practice/qualifying/heat races. He finished the season strong, and I like his chances to kick off the year with a big win.
Chase Briscoe +3000 (.25 unit)
In a 27-car field, Briscoe is 30/1 to win this race. Briscoe had above average speed on short flat tracks and was getting stronger as the season was finishing. Stewart-Haas Racing hit on something during the second half of the season, and I think they’re going to be more competitive out of the gate this year. Briscoe isn’t afraid to use the bumper, which will be needed Sunday night.
William Byron +1200 (.25 unit)
Like Blaney, Byron was strong on flat tracks in 2022. Byron had a great start to the 2022 season, and then disappeared in the middle of the year after he picked up his second win. There have been rumors that HMS used Byron to test some stuff with the new car. If he finds that early season speed from 2022, Byron has an above average chance to win this race. I think there is some risk with Byron, but I like him at 12/1 before practice/qualifying.
Sunday night after heat races, I’ll be looking for fantasy props on PrizePicks, Underdog, and Monkey Knife Fight. I’ll be discussing these during the live show.
Core Plays
I changed this section to a post practice/qualifying thoughts section. Without starting positions, it’s hard to give out a core on Saturday night. I will have core plays, tournament plays, and value plays on LineupHQ. I’m also doing a live show after the last chance qualifier races on Sunday night. I’m hoping to start the live show around 6:30pm ET.
First thing I noticed, it would take 20-22 laps for cars to put down some laps, and some of the fastest laps came around the 28 to 30 laps. The second session seemed to be the fastest session, and where teams were able to carry the most speed for the longest period. Most of the best averages came from the second session. The track seemed to slow down in the third session. I think it will be a little different for the heat races, but the main race should have a good amount of rubber laid down.
Going into the heat races, I’ll be looking at how long it takes to get going for these cars. I also think it’s important to see how the passing will be. In the main race, I think the front row will have a nice advantage for dominator points. I’ll be looking for two to three dominators, and more than likely, they will come from the top eight starting spots. Bell, Chastain, Wallace, and Elliott had a lot of speed in the beginning of practice. Briscoe, Hamlin, Truex, Kyle Busch, and Suarez were better as practice went along. Place differential floor will come from the middle to back of the starting grid. There will be plenty of beating and banging in the main race, so even cars with lack of speed will have some potential. Finding the right mix of drivers with speed after a bad heat race and drivers with the potential to lead laps is going to be the key on Sunday night.