NBA Advanced Matchups: Saturday, April 18th
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with four or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day.
BLOWOUT CONCERNS
| ROAD TEAM | HOME TEAM | FAVORITE |
| PELICANS | WARRIORS | WARRIORS -11.5 |
| BUCKS | BULLS | BULLS -7.5 |
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
CHOOSING BETWEEN SATURDAY’S THREE KINGS
The success of your lineups tonight figures to be defined by which of the Big Three elite players – Steph Curry, James Harden, and Anthony Davis – you chose to roster. Unlike a normal NBA slate that might include these three players, there’s really not enough value tonight to allow us to fit multiple in as comfortably as we’d like. You’ll probably have to take a stand. With that in mind, we’ll break down the situation that each star is in tonight:
ROCKETS SG JAMES HARDEN
•POSITIVES: MINUTES BOOST (11.4% PER LEVITAN, HIGHEST VEGAS TOTAL OF THE DAY, FAVORABLE DVP – LAST THREE WEEKS (29), FAVORABLE INDIVIDUAL MATCHUP (MONTA ELLIS)
•NEGATIVES: DWIGHT HOWARD PLAYING MORE MINUTES
Harden seems to be the stud with the least buzz of this trio, which seems strange considering his frequent visits to the 50+ FPT club during the season. Harden can, of course, take over a game with his scoring, but couples that with PG-like facilitation that really raises his floor (he has at least 6 assists in four straight games, including two games with 10 assists over that span). While Harden didn’t go ballistic in terms of FPTS against the Mavs in their meetings this season, he did drop 32 real points on them earlier this season. He also demonstrated an ability to do what he does best – get to the free-throw line – with three games of 12+ free throw attempts against the Mavs. Like the other stars, Harden is going to be playing consistently massive minutes as the engine of the Rockets offense, and his all-around game makes him an excellent play against a Mavs squad that struggled against wing scorers down the stretch (29th in SG DVP over the last three weeks).
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Take Your Game to the Next Level!
Each day when there are four or more games, Ohnjz will bring FanDuel & DraftKings Incentives members Advanced Matchup breakdowns for that day’s NBA games. These data-driven breakdowns will provide you insight & analysis you can’t find anywhere else. Enjoy!
