NBA Playoff Minute Bumps: Part 1
Minutes equals money (not sure if Al Smizz has that trademarked or not).
With that statement in mind, we need to wrap our heads around what’s going to happen in the NBA playoffs from a minutes perspective. Just about every coach will shrink their rotation, but by how much? And where will that coach distribute the extra minutes?
I’ve compared my playoff minute projections to regular season averages. I expect the guys below to get the biggest bumps, allowing us to exploit their salaries – which are based on regular season minutes. Note that this is Part 1 and only discusses Saturday’s four-game slate from a FanDuel perspective. I’ll be back with Part 2 for Sunday’s slate soon.
1. Dirk Nowitzki, PF, Mavericks
29.6 regular season, 37 projected playoffs = 25.0% gain
When it comes to old timers, the no-brainer strategy is to rest them during the regular season and unleash them in the playoffs. We’ve seen Rick Carlisle do this before with the 36-year-old Dirk Nowitzki. Last year, he played 32.9 MPG in the regular season and 37.6 in the playoffs. In 2012, he was at 33.5 regular season and 38.5 playoffs. Given the pace at which the Dallas-Houston series will be played and the discounted price Dirk is at (due to his regular season minutes), he’s a core mid-range play for me at $6,300.
2. Bradley Beal, SG, Wizards
33.4 regular season, 41 projected playoffs = 22.7% gain
Upon returning from his latest leg injury in late February, I thought Bradley Beal looked as healthy and fresh as he ever has. It was reflected in his minutes, as he played 33.0 in March and a whopping 34.6 in seven relatively meaningless April games. When Beal is healthy, Randy Wittman loves to ride him as we saw in last year’s playoffs. He played 39 or more minutes in all 11 games against the Bulls and Pacers, averaging 41.6.
3. Stephen Curry, PG, Warriors
32.7 regular season, 40 projected playoffs = 22.3% gain
So. Many. Blowouts. The Warriors’ historic season actually capped Stephen Curry’s box score, but he still came in as fantasy’s No. 1 player in season-long formats. He also averaged an absurd 1.27 FanDuel points per minute, so any gain is going to yield massive returns. Well, the playoffs lend hope that the Pelicans can keep it close and Steve Kerr will take the shackles off a bit. Last year, Mark Jackson rode Curry for 42.3 minutes per game in the playoffs, up from 36.5 in the regular season. Anytime Curry gets 40 minutes, a 50-point fantasy day is a fair projection.
4. Paul Pierce, SF, Wizards
26.2 regular season, 32 projected playoffs = 22.1% gain
Much like Dirk Nowitzki, 37-year-old Paul Pierce was coddled during the regular season. Now it’s time for him to show why he was brought to Washington. Pierce has certainly looked capable of playing big minutes this year, dodging any real injuries. Check out a three-game stretch in late-January in which he played 37, 30 and 33 minutes in consecutive outings. Pierce was also at his best on his 14 back-to-backs, playing 28.1 minutes and averaging 14.9 real-life points in those. All of this is a long way of saying The Truth is still capable of playing some big minutes and coach Randy Wittman has already discussed using him at the 4 some in this matchup. There’s a lot of old man value in Pierce at just $4,200.
5. Khris Middleton, SF, Bucks
30.1 regular season, 36 projected playoffs = 19.6% gain
This is a bit misleading as Khris Middleton was already playing 35.3 minutes per game in 29 outings after the All-Star break. That’s built into his $6,700 price tag. So unlike the rest of the guys on this list, the playoff minutes are not a big bump off what we’ve seen recently. Expect the Bucks to ride with their standard nine-man rotation, allowing the solid four bench guys (O.J. Mayo, Jerryd Bayless, Jared Dudley, John Henson) to wet their beaks.
6. Draymond Green, SF, Warriors
31.5 regular season, 37 projected playoffs = 17.4% gain
Draymond is listed as a small forward on FanDuel but will start at power forward for the Warriors, as he has all season. I’m projecting a big minutes bump for two reasons. First, I’m expecting less blowouts and a far tighter Steve Kerr rotation. Second, DPOY candidate Green is the Warriors’ best matchup against Anthony Davis. They’re going to need him on the floor a ton in this series and will be hard-pressed to use defensive liabilities David Lee/Marreese Speights.
7. Anthony Davis, PF, Pelicans
36.1 regular season, 42 projected playoffs = 16.3% gain
I know what you’re thinking; a 42 minute projection is absurd. Perhaps, but we’re talking about a generational player on a team that relies on him for everything. With the Pelicans desperately pushing for a playoff berth down the stretch, Anthony Davis played 40+ minutes in 11 of the final 20 games. If the Pelicans are going to keep it close, it’s going to be all about The Brow on both ends of the floor. In case you’re wondering, a 42-minute projection at Davis’ season mark of 1.31 FanDuel points per minute equals 55.0 fantasy points. Of course, that’s what we’ll need to pay off his gargantuan $11,800 salary.
8. Andrew Bogut, C, Warriors
23.6 regular season, 27 projected playoffs = 14.4% gain
Injuries are always a concern for Andrew Bogut, who hasn’t played in more than 69 regular season games since 2007-08. So the Warriors wisely eased way back on their top rim protector and rebounder this season, giving him just 23.6 minutes per game. I don’t think Steve Kerr will suddenly go nuts with Bogut’s minutes, especially because they’re going to need him for more physical teams down the line in the playoffs. But I do think a bump to 27 is coming, giving him a sneaky shot at 5x-ing value on his $5,400 price tag.
9. DeMar DeRozan, SG, Raptors
35.0 regular season, 40 projected playoffs = 14.2% gain
Logging massive minutes is nothing new for DeMar DeRozan, who ranked fourth in the league in MPG in 2013-14 at 38.2. Dwane Casey backed off a bit this year by bringing DD down to 35.0 and he responded by playing some of his best ball down the stretch. Now Casey is talking about essentially playing an eight-man rotation in the playoffs, with the ninth and tenth men (Greivis Vasquez and James Johnson?) playing bit roles if they get in at all. DeRozan and Kyle Lowry, who I have projected for 39 minutes, will be centerpieces.
10. Marcin Gortat, C, Wizards
29.9 regular season, 34 projected playoffs = 13.7% gain
We got a glimpse of Randy Wittman’s likely playoff rotation when they faced the Hawks on April 12. He only played nine guys, dropping backup big Kevin Seraphin out of the mix. Marcin Gortat played 32 minutes in that one, up a bit from his season average of 29.9. And if we go back to last year’s playoffs, Gortat averaged 36.0 minutes against the Bulls in Round 1 and 33.5 against the Pacers in Round 2. He was over 35 minutes in 8-of-11 games.
OTHER NOTABLES
Pau Gasol, 13.3% gain – Thibs doesn’t need an excuse to ride his studs extra hard. Pau destroyed the Bucks in the regular season.
Klay Thompson, 12.8% gain – Tighter rotation from Steve Kerr, fewer blowouts coming.
Kyle Lowry, 13.0% gain – See the DeMar DeRozan entry for more. Lowry at least appears healthier, averaging 35.0 minutes in the last four regular season games.
James Harden, 11.4% gain – This is a lot like the Anthony Davis situation (see above). Hard to see Harden playing less than 41 minutes, up from his 36.8 regular season mark.
Giannis Antetokounmpo, 11.4% gain – Perhaps the games Jason Kidd was messing with Greek Freak’s minutes were for rest purposes. He has to play 35 if the Bucks are going to beat the Bulls.