NBA Advanced Matchups: Thursday, April 23rd
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in this evening’s NBA slate. We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINDFULNESS
Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day.
VEGAS TOTALS – RIPE OR ROTTEN?
•ROTTEN: BULLS @ BUCKS – 187 POINT TOTAL (LOWEST OF THE DAY)
BLOWOUT CONCERNS
No blowout concerns today based on the Vegas lines. The highest spread is the Warriors at Pelicans, where the Warriors are favored by 5 points.
MINUTES MINDFULNESS
We’re testing a new addition for the playoffs, friends. Here we’ll take note of the players benefiting from extra postseason run, inspired by the awesome Minutes Bump series done by Adam Levitan (check it out here if you haven’t already).
WARRIORS
•TOP 3: PF DRAYMOND GREEN (42), PG STEPH CURRY (37), TIE: C ANDREW BOGUT (33), SG KLAY THOMPSON (33)
REACTION: Steph may be the Baby Faced Assassin, but Draymond Green is the heart of this Warriors team. He’s played 41+ minutes in both games this series, and has been phenomenal on both sides of the ball. More on him below. Steph saw 37 minutes in Game 2, but didn’t capitalize on the absence of Pelicans PG Jrue Holiday. Klay had his second-straight 20+ real point game this series, but as usual didn’t provide much other than his scoring. Vegas has Game 3 much closer than the first two games now that the series has moved to THE SMOOTHIE KING CENTER (best arena name ever) in New Orleans – if it stays close we should see extra run from the Warriors starters tonight.
•OTHER NOTABLES: SF ANDRE IGOUDALA (30)
Iggy has 30+ minutes in both games this series. And while he hasn’t produced much DFS-wise (which seems to be the case of EVERY bench player in the playoffs so far), we know he’s been a solid value play at times this season thanks to his ability to contribute across the board. He can run the Warriors offense for the second unit, and although his shot hasn’t been falling so far (just 25% from beyond the arc), he’s a capable shooter from long-range. With heavy minutes for a bench player, Iggy is a value option tonight.
UNDER THE MICROSCOPE
WARRIORS PF DRAYMOND GREEN
I’m bummed there wasn’t a big enough slate to produce an AMP for the Warriors Game 2, because to me (and from a DFS perspective), Draymond Green has been one of the most exciting players in the playoffs thus far. Dray has literally been like a Swiss Army knife for the dubs. Check out his stat-stuffing gamelogs in the playoffs thus far:
•GAME 1: (42 MINUTES) 15 POINTS, 12 REBOUNDS, 7 ASSISTS, 3 STEALS, 2 BLOCKS
•GAME 2: (41 MINUTES) 14 POINTS, 12 REBOUNDS, 5 ASSISTS, 3 STEALS, 1 BLOCK
Those game logs are bursting at the seams. The best part is: Draymond hasn’t really been doing anything out-of-the-Draymond-ordinary…
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