NBA Advanced Matchups: Tuesday, April 21st
Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate (with 4 or more games). We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article.
As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.
MINUTES MINDFULNESS
We’re testing a new addition for the playoffs, friends. Here we’ll take note of the players benefiting from extra postseason run, inspired by the awesome Minutes Bump series done by Adam Levitan (check it out here if you haven’t already).
ROCKETS
· TOP 3: SG JAMES HARDEN (39M), SF TREVOR ARIZA (38M), PF TERRENCE JONES (34M)
REACTION: We knew Harden would see heavy minutes (and to be fair he really didn’t even need to play as much as he did), and anyone familiar with the Rockets knows Trevor Ariza quietly sees big minutes already. Ariza already delivered a 40 FPT performance in Game 1 and can threaten that threshold nightly thanks to both his utility (11 rebounds, 6 assists, 3 steals in Game 1), and the Mavs defensive lapses. The Mavs are just 26th in FPPG allowed to opposing SF, buoyed by them allowing the MOST 3PM to both the SF position and overall. That’s a recipe for disaster against a sharpshooter like Ariza, and a team that loooooooves the 3-ball like the Rockets. For all that Ariza did well in Game 1, he surprisingly only took 2 3s – there’s scoring upside here. While we may have expected Ariza to produce, it’s great to see Terrence Jones check in with the third-most minutes, even if a large part of that was Dwight Howard’s foul trouble. Jones has proven to be a DFS beast (technical term) when healthy and given the minutes, and he showed that again in Game 1 (40+ FPTS). The most encouraging aspects of Jones game were his 4 offensive rebounds, and the 15 shots he put up. Jones may not be the low-post presence that Dwight Howard is, but he actually scores more points-per-possession (PPP) on Post-Up plays than Howard does. He also outscores Howard (albeit barely) in points-per-possession on pick-and-roll roll man plays (96th percentile). While Jones isn’t likely to get as many opportunities with Howard in, the opportunities he does get should be wide-open or favorable looks. James Harden loves to dish to his big men when he sucks in the defense on his drives to the basket, and with Howard occupying Mavs C Tyson Chandler, Jones will be free to run over Dirk Nowitzki. All told, Jones has stat-stuffing appeal in a game Vegas pegs as the highest-scoring of the night.
· OTHER NOTABLES: C DWIGHT HOWARD (17M)
As mentioned above, Dwight was limited to just 17 minutes in Game 1 thanks to foul trouble. But in those 17 minutes, Howard still churned out nearly 30 FPTS, at a rate of over 1.5 FPTS per minute. To put that in perspective, James Harden scored around 1.2 FPTS per minute in Game 1. While James Harden is clearly the engine of the Rockets offense, don’t forget about Howard’s potential in tournaments.
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