NBA Advanced Matchups: Wednesday, April 22nd

by ohnjz Last Updated 2015-04-25 14:59:14

Welcome to the NBA Advanced Matchups, presented by Ohnjz. I’ll be taking you deep into the depths of NBA advanced stats to uncover the top plays in each NBA slate. We’ll consider a broad spectrum of metrics here, including SPORTSVU player and shot tracking, play type data, individual defensive metrics, and my personal favorite, Ohnjz’ bad-jokes-and-snarky-comments-per-article. As always, this work is meant as a guide to help you hone in on what advanced stats would suggest are some of the top plays – but it’s ultimately up to you to decide how to build your lineups.

MINDFULNESS

Before we dig into the Advanced Matchups, we’ll take note of the team and game situations that can impact our decision-making each day.

VEGAS TOTALS – RIPE OR ROTTEN?
•RIPE: SPURS AT CLIPPERS – 207.5 POINT TOTAL (HIGHEST OF THE DAY)
•ROTTEN: BLAZERS AT GRIZZLIES – 189 POINT TOTAL (LOWEST OF THE DAY)

BLOWOUT CONCERNS

MINUTES MINDFULNESS

We’re testing a new addition for the playoffs, friends. Here we’ll take note of the players benefiting from extra postseason run, inspired by the awesome Minutes Bump series done by Adam Levitan (check it out here if you haven’t already).

NETS

•TOP 3: SF JOE JOHNSON (42), PF THAD YOUNG (40), C BROOK LOPEZ (36)

REACTION: Thanks to massive minutes from the Big Four starters, the Nets were basically able to go blow-for-blow with the Hawks in Game 1 (outside of the first quarter, where the Hawks outscored them by 12 points). Both Joe Johnson and Thad Young cracked 40 minutes in Game 1, and should continue to lead the team in that respect. Coincidently, both are also modestly priced, so there’s profit potential here considering the minutes they’re seeing. This is especially the case for Johnson, who was featured repeatedly on isolation sets. With the Hawks doing a great job containing Brook Lopez, JJ should again see heavy shot volume.

Lopez saw the third-most minutes, but as mentioned one sentence ago, the Hawks schemed to take away Lopez’ opportunities in the pick-and-roll. It’s worth noting that the Hawks didn’t really stop Lopez – he still scored 17 points, and was 6 for 7 from the field – they were just able to keep the ball out of his hands. Lopez somehow was held to just the FIFTH most touches of any Net in Game 1 – behind even Jarrett Jack, who played for just 16 minutes. Everyone from HC Lionel Hollins to PG Deron Williams has preached about getting BROLO the ball more in Game 2. Assuming they succeed, even the vaunted Hawks D won’t stop BROLO from having a bounce back in Game 2.

•OTHER NOTABLES: SG BOJAN BOGDANOVIC (32)

Bojan saw the most minutes of any Nets bench player, and replaced Markel Brown in the starting unit in the second half of Game 1. Unfortunately, he didn’t capitalize on the extra run, scoring just 5 points on 2 of 8 shooting. The performance is concerning, but the Nets as a whole were lackluster from deep (just 25% from three), and they don’t have a better alternative. Bojan makes for a low ceiling value option given the likelihood he’ll see decent minutes in this series.

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