NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over Til It's Under (Friday, Nov. 10)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
San Antonio Spurs Under 110.5 (-110 on Fanatics)
Minnesota currently has a 100.4 defensive rating, which would be the best full-season mark since the 2015-16 Spurs. Are the Timberwolves one of the best defenses of the past decade? Probably not. But when you watch their combination of athleticism on the wings and length in the frontcourt, it’s easy to see how Minnesota has separated itself on the defensive end.
The key to solving this defense seems to be hitting 3s, as the only time the Timberwolves have allowed 110+ points, Atlanta shot 46.7% from long range. On the season, the Timberwolves have held opponents to the lowest 3-point percentage in the league. The Spurs are 22nd in 3-point percentage and 18th in 3-point frequency, only taking 37.65% of their shots from beyond the arc.
San Antonio ranks 24th in offensive rating but 14th in points per game, helped by playing at the 9th-fastest pace. In a similar matchup on Wednesday, the Knicks’ stifling defense limited the Spurs to 105 points. Most of it came in the 4th quarter with the game out of hand. They’re going to need a hot shooting night to challenge this number, and that’s a lot to ask in this matchup.
Josh Giddey Under 26.5 Points + Rebounds + Assists (-113 on FanDuel)
I’ve bet against Giddey a ton in the early going. It’s not that I don’t think he’s a good player (he is!); it’s just that this team has a ton of capable options. The do-it-all role isn’t there for him anymore.
Giddey’s year-over-year statistical decreases are as follows: assist rate (-6.9%), rebound rate (-2.2%), field goal attempts (-1.2), 3-point attempts (-1.0), and minutes (-3.0). His potential assists (-3.6), rebound chances (-0.8), and touches (-8.3) have all taken hits.
The playing time is a new issue. Giddey played just 25 minutes on Wednesday, his lowest of the season outside of a 33-point blowout loss to Denver. Cason Wallace matched a season-high with 24 minutes off the bench (he did play 36 minutes when he got a start for an injured Shai Gilgeous-Alexander).
Giddey only played about 8 minutes in the 2nd half and was on the bench for the majority of the 4th quarter. Wallace played 9+ minutes in the final period, eating up the majority of crunch-time action in a close game.
If Oklahoma City’s depth is going to start limiting Giddey’s minutes, in addition to his opportunities, he’s going to have a hard time posting big stat lines.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 1-1
- Prop Picks: 1-1
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