NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over Til It's Under (Friday, Dec. 15)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Orlando Magic Under 109.5 (-118 on FanDuel)
Orlando currently sits in 3rd place in the Eastern Conference at 16-7, behind only Philadelphia and this Boston squad. Road games have been a problem though. The Magic are 5-5 on the road, and that doesn’t include a neutral site loss in Mexico. They’re 29th in offensive rating in those 10 games. Only San Antonio has been worse offensively away from home.
Boston ranks 4th in defensive rating and allows the 3rd-fewest points per game. They’ve been particularly adept at forcing missed shots and limiting points in the paint, ranking 2nd in opponent field goal percentage and 4th in points in the paint allowed. Inside scoring is a big part of Orlando’s offense, as they’re 2nd in paint points and take the 6th-fewest 3-pointers per game.
The Magic have a nice rest advantage here, not having played since Monday, but that’s negated by their struggles on the road. Given Boston’s defensive strengths, this sets up to be a challenging matchup.
Nick Richards Under 11.5 Points (-130 on ESPN BET)
It’s easy to conflate entering the starting lineup with earning more opportunities. While playing time is normally more secure as a starter, you’re also playing with better players who command more of the responsibilities on offense.
Richards should draw a start again tonight with Mark Williams listed as doubtful. He’s started three of the past four games in Williams’ stead, and they’ve been some of his weakest offensive performances this season. Richards has averaged just 6 points on 5 field goal attempts per game as a starter. He’s posted a meager 10.27% usage rate in the games Williams has missed, compared to a 15.9% mark when Williams starts and Richards comes off the bench.
Usage rate isn’t everything, especially with rim-running centers who aren’t creating their own offense, but that’s still a pretty significant decline in involvement. The minutes have been there (31.2 per game), he’s just not getting to participate on that end of the floor.
New Orleans is a mediocre matchup, ranking 13th in defensive rating and 17th in points allowed per game. They’ve given up the 8th-most points to centers, but the 11th-fewest points in the paint. Centers of Richards’ ilk aren’t the type that have given them issues.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 4-3
- Prop Picks: 6-1
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