NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over Til It's Under (Friday, Dec. 29)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Oklahoma City Thunder vs. Denver Nuggets Under 236.5 (-110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
This number has jumped up a ton, and it’s gone too far. These teams are top eight in defensive rating in December. Denver has allowed the 3rd-fewest points per game. The offenses are both excellent, but the defenses should be able to take away what they do well. Denver is 5th in points in the paint per game, but OKC allows the 3rd-fewest points in the paint. OKC is 2nd in 3-point percentage, while Denver holds opponents to the 9th-worst percentage and the 3rd-fewest attempts from beyond the arc.
The pace should also be a factor. Denver is 29th in pace. OKC is 6th in pace on the season, but they’re outside the top 10 on the road. Would expect the Nuggets to dictate tempo at home and drag this one to a screeching halt.
This should be a high-level, playoff-style matchup with every bucket being a challenge.
Malik Beasley Under 9.5 Points (-132 on FanDuel)
Interesting amalgamation of lines here. Beasley has been strictly a 3-point specialist the past three seasons, taking more than 70% of his shots from beyond the arc every year. His points prop is at 9.5 on FanDuel, but his made 3-pointers line is at 2.5, heavily juiced to the under. So the sportsbooks expect Beasley to make two 3-pointers or less. We have him projected right at two made 3s. Beasley is taking just 2.5 2-pointers per game. Seems like he’ll need to run hot in one of those areas to reach double-digits.
Then there’s the minutes. Since Pat Connaughton returned, Beasley has averaged just 25.6 minutes per game. We’ve seen a virtually nonexistent floor, as he played 19 minutes and managed just two shots on Christmas Day. We have him projected at 27 minutes, but the bottom could easily drop out if he isn’t hitting shots or Connaughton/ Bobby Portis / Cameron Payne etc. get it going.
And finally, the matchup. Cleveland is top 10 in 3-point percentage and attempts per game. They’ve allowed the fewest points per game to shooting guards.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 4-5
- Prop Picks: 6-3
Not in a legal sports betting state? Use our Betr Picks promo code to make player predictions with a $500 deposit match this week!
Image Credit: Getty Images