NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, Feb. 2)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Portland Trail Blazers 1st Quarter Under 25.5 (-115 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
These teams are running it back after playing on Friday, and since this line hardly budged, we’ll hit it again. Portland’s team total was 26.5 (-130) in that matchup, and they needed a couple Scoot Henderson free throws in the final seconds just to get to 20.
Updated 1st-quarter numbers for the Blazers: Dead last in net rating (-17.9), 29th in offensive rating (104.6), and 28th in points scored (26.6). They’re exactly 1 point worse on the road compared to at home. Tonight’s projected starting lineup of Grant/Brogdon/Simons/Ayton/Walker has a 91.5 offensive rating in the 1st quarter.
Denver continues to allow the fewest points per game in the 1st quarter, and they’re 2.4 points better at home. The Nuggets are 3rd in 1st-quarter defensive rating at home.
Klay Thompson Under 18.5 Points (-115 on PointsBet)
Not a huge sample, but Memphis’ recent defensive numbers are interesting. It’s now been 10 games since they’ve been without all of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane, and Marcus Smart. In that span, the Grizzlies are top 5 in defensive rating and points allowed per game. They’re also 5th in opponent 3-point percentage, 8th in made 3-pointers allowed, and 10th in attempts allowed (more on that later). Probably doesn’t hurt that they’re 23rd in pace as well.
Thompson has been more reliant than ever on 3-point scoring in recent years. This season, 58.1% of Thompson’s points have come from 3-pointers, not far off from his career-high mark last season (59.8%). He was at 52.5% in 2021-22; the first time in his career he had ever been above 47%.
Thompson still averaged nearly 22 points per game last season because he took a career-high 10.6 3-pointers per game. The problem this season is that he’s down to 8.8 3-point attempts per game. He’s also shooting a career-low 38.5% from deep (still a good mark but not Splash Brothers-level). Thompson’s 14.5 field goal attempts per game are his lowest since his rookie season. He’s shooting a career-low 39.2% from inside the arc.
Just think it’s a rough spot for Thompson’s current skill set. And even if the Grizzlies’ recent performance doesn’t hold, we can still get there with a low volume or bad shooting night, both of which have become more frequent this season.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 7-7
- Prop Picks: 9-5
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