NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, Feb. 9)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
New Orleans Pelicans vs. Los Angeles Lakers Under 235.5 (-130 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
There are two solid defenses here, plus a back-to-back for the Lakers. This line has been trickling down since last night, and I’d expect it to keep trending that way.
New Orleans is 8th in defensive rating and 9th in points allowed per game. They’ve done a great job limiting opponents from the field (6th in FG%), especially from beyond the arc (1st in 3P%). LA is an average defense overall, but they’ve been a legitimately solid unit at home. They’re 6th in defensive rating at home compared to 24th on the road. The Lakers have allowed 7.4 more PPG on the road vs. at home.
Both teams get to the line plenty (top 7 in free throws per game) but also do a good job limiting fouls on the defensive end. The Lakers average the fewest fouls per game and allow the 2nd-fewest free throws per game. The Pelicans are 14th and 10th, respectively, but they’ve been much better recently. New Orleans is averaging the 5th-fewest fouls per game and allowing the 6th-fewest free throws per game since the start of 2024.
These defenses match up well with the opposing offenses. Plus, we could get some back-to-back shenanigans from the LA side. I would expect a defensive struggle.
Tyrese Maxey Under 7.5 Assists (-150 on ESPN BET)
It’s a great matchup, for sure. Atlanta is 28th in defensive rating and 3rd in pace. The Hawks allow the 3rd-most assists per game. I just think it’s an assist or two too high, considering Maxey’s role without Embiid. There are still a couple of 7.5s out there, including on ESPN BET at -150. I probably wouldn’t play it too far past that price.
Maxey’s assist rate declines by 3.7% when Embiid doesn’t play. He’s averaging 5.2 assists across 12 games. With Embiid healthy, Maxey is at 6.8 assists per game. In the 4 games since Embiid’s most recent injury, Maxey is averaging 4 assists on 6.8 potential assists.
While Atlanta gives up tons of assists, they’re actually average in percentage of assisted field goals (13th). They just give up tons of made field goals, so the volume of assists is high. Philadelphia’s offense has scuffled since Embiid went down (113.5 PPG). There’s a chance they’re unable to exploit the matchup. And even if they put up a ton of points, I would expect a lot of it to be from Maxey himself.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 7-8
- Prop Picks: 10-5
Not in a legal sports betting state? Use our Betr Picks promo code to make player predictions with a $500 deposit match this week!
Image Credit: Getty Images