NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, Jan. 12)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Portland Trail Blazers First Quarter Under 26.5 (-150 on PointsBet)
If you’ve checked out any of my bets on ScoresAndOdds recently, you’ll know I’ve been routinely fading Portland in the first quarter. They’re been consistently horrendous to start the game.
The Portland 1st-quarter ATS fade hit again on Wednesday, as OKC demolished them (36-24). Minnesota has been middling offensively in the 1st quarter, so I’m targeting the Blazers team total instead. Portland is 29th in 1st-quarter offensive rating and 28th in scoring. This will be the best defense they’ve faced in our recent run of fading them.
The Timberwolves lead the league in defensive rating (108.6), and they’re even better at home (103). Minnesota has a 105.7 defensive rating in the 1st quarter at home.
The Blazers have gone through many iterations of their starting lineup, but the group of Grant / Simons / Henderson / Camara / Reath are up to 5th in minutes for them. It’s not a huge sample (48 minutes), but it’s easily their most-used 5-man unit in January. That lineup has a dreadful 88.1 offensive rating.
Scottie Barnes Under 7.5 Rebounds (+110 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
Another frequent bet for me recently; I have hit it three times since the RJ Barrett / Immanuel Quickley trade. Since the deal, Barnes is averaging 4 rebounds on 8.5 rebound chances through 6 games.
Barnes did grab 7 boards on 12 rebound chances Wednesday night, and his prop moved up to 8.5 per game after Pascal Siakam was ruled out. That’s much better than his recent output but still below his rebounding numbers since prior to the trade, when he was averaging 9+ rebounds and 14+ rebound chances. Siakam is questionable tonight, but Barnes’ rebounding rate has barely budged with him off the floor (-0.2%). The same goes for when both Siakam and Jakob Poeltl (out tonight) are on the bench (+0.4%).
It feels weird that guys like Chris Boucher and Thaddeus Young would be the ones to thrive on the glass for this current iteration of the Raptors, but that’s been the case in this 6-game sample. Barnes is 5th on the team in rebound chances since the trade. Even with Poeltl missing the last 2 games and Siakam sitting on Wednesday, Barnes is 4th in rebound chances in that stretch.
Utah is 2nd in rebounding rate this season and 3rd over the past 10 games while allowing the 6th-fewest rebounds per game.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 6-5
- Prop Picks: 6-5
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