NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, Jan. 19)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Philadelphia 76ers vs. Orlando Magic First Quarter Under 56.5 (-111 on FanDuel)
We have a pair of top-5 defenses squaring off and two squads that have had a tough time on offense early in games.
Philadelphia is 13th in first-quarter scoring, but that’s heavily skewed by averaging 30+ at home. They’re at just 26.6 PPG in the first quarter on the road (24th). The Sixers are 20th in first-quarter offensive rating. Orlando is 25th in first-quarter scoring, with no noticeable home/road splits. They’re 22nd in offensive rating but down to 26th since Franz Wagner got hurt.
Defense is a different story, as Orlando is 11th in first-quarter defensive rating and 10th in scoring. Philly is 9th and 11th, respectively. The Magic are 25-15-1 to the under in the first quarter, including 8-2 in their last 10 games.
Both teams are middle-of-the-pack in terms of pace for the season, but Orlando is 28th since Wagner went down. I would expect a sluggish start in this one.
Austin Reaves Under 25.5 Points+Rebounds+Assists (-125 on Fanatics Sportsbook)
Reaves continues to see downgrades across the board when D’Angelo Russell is healthy. When Russell plays, Reaves is at 14.3 points, 4.9 assists, and 4.1 rebounds per game. He’s averaged just under 29 minutes per game, and we have him projected for 32 minutes tonight. Russell returned from injury 6 games ago, and while Reaves has continued to start, he’s averaged 31.3 minutes.
In the 4 games Russell has missed, Reaves saw rate increases across the board and averaged 21.3 points, 8.3 assists, and 5.3 rebounds. Most importantly, he also averaged 36.6 minutes.
Brooklyn has been mediocre to underwhelming on defense, but they play slow. They rank 24th in pace on the season and 26th over the past 15 games. Los Angeles has played better at home, but largely due to their defense. The Lakers’ offensive rating is 24th at home. This has the makings of an ugly one, and Reaves isn’t seeing enough opportunities to overcome the game environment.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 7-5
- Prop Picks: 7-5
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