NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, April 12)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
San Antonio Spurs First Quarter Under 26.5 (-120 on Fanatics)
The Spurs were already struggling to score in the 1st quarter (23rd), and now they’re without three of their four best players (Johnson, Vassell, Sochan). San Antonio is down to 27th in 1st-quarter scoring over the past 15 games, posting just 24.8 points per game.
Now comes the best 1st-quarter defense in the league. Denver has held opponents to just 26.4 PPG in the opening period, which is the best mark in the league. The Nuggets do a great job limiting opponents from beyond the arc, allowing the 2nd-fewest made 3s and 3-point attempts. They’re 7th in opponent 3-point percentage.
San Antonio, for some reason, takes the 11th-most 3-pointers in the league. It’s an odd choice considering they’re dead last in 3-point percentage. And they’ve ramped it up recently, taking the 6th-most 3s over the past 15 games. Would expect a bunch of bricks from the Spurs to start this one.
Donovan Mitchell Under 26.5 Points (-130 on ESPN BET)
This is a difficult matchup for the current version of Mitchell. His current scoring approach doesn’t line up with how Indiana chooses to defend.
The Pacers limit assists and 3-pointers better than any other team. They lead the league in percentage of scoring from 2-pointers. You want to score inside the arc, particularly without the help of teammates, to have success against them. Mitchell isn’t doing as much of that this season.
Mitchell was under a 30% assisted field goal rate in his final years with Utah, but he’s up to 35.8% this season with Cleveland. That’s his highest mark since his rookie year. Mitchell is taking 45.6% of his shots from 3-point range, which is the 2nd-highest rate of his career. He’s scoring just 43.8% of his points from 2-pointers, which is the 2nd-lowest mark of his career. He was up over 50% on three occasions with the Jazz.
The best path for Mitchell in this matchup might be living at the free throw line, but the unspoken league mandate around foul calls has made that more difficult. He’s only played 7 games under the “new” enforcement approach, but he’s averaging just 3.6 FTs per game in that stretch. Just see a lot working against Mitchell here.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 12-11
- Prop Picks: 13-9
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