NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, March 1)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Portland Trail Blazers vs. Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Under 54.5 (-130 on PointsBet)
I had to find a way to fade these two offenses, and targeting the 1st quarter seems like the strongest option. The scoring struggles for these squads are especially evident in the opening period.
Memphis has been the worst offense in the league since all of Ja Morant, Desmond Bane and Marcus Smart went down. They’re dead last in scoring and offensive rating across those 21 games. Jaren Jackson Jr. was the last offensive threat standing, and now he’s out as well. And it’s not like this group was thriving in the 1st quarter when healthy. The Grizzlies are 27th in 1st-quarter scoring and 28th in offensive rating on the season.
Portland has been worse. They rank 29th in 1st-quarter scoring and offensive rating. The Blazers have gone through many starting lineups, and basically, all of them have been bad on offense. Of the six starting lineups that have played 20+ 1st-quarter minutes together, only one has an offensive rating above 103, and it’s still not that good (Grant/Simons/Ayton/Henderson/Camara at 108).
Portland hasn’t been good defensively either, but at least they play slow (25th in pace). Memphis has actually been solid on the defensive front (11th) and hasn’t dropped off in this recent stretch without their best players. Just don’t see these teams mustering 50+ points out of the gate.
Zion Williamson Under 5.5 Assists (-140 on Fanatics)
It was a nice little run of Point Zion, as he racked up 15 assists over a couple of games with CJ McCollum sidelined. But McCollum is back, which means a 3.1% decrease in assist rate for Williamson when they share the floor.
Zion has averaged a career-high 5.1 assists on 9.8 potential assists this season, but he’ll have a difficult time getting to 6 dimes tonight. Indiana is one of the worst matchups for assists, ranking 5th in assists allowed and 1st in percentage of assisted field goals allowed. At 55%, they lead by a mile in that latter metric. Orlando is the only other team below 60% in opponent-assisted field goals, and it’s just barely (59.8%).
Basically, 45% of the buckets the Pacers give up are unassisted, while everyone else is at 40% or lower. So, while they may give up plenty of points, it’s often not coming with an assist attached. Zion had 4 assists on 7 potential assists in this same matchup on Wednesday.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 8-9
- Prop Picks: 10-6
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