NBA Best Bets for Today: It Ain't Over 'Til It's Under (Friday, March 22)
NBA Best Bets for today’s action! It Ain’t Over ‘Til It’s Under will highlight one game total and one player prop under for the slate. We won’t cash until the final horn sounds, but we’ll be cashing often.
Memphis Grizzlies First Quarter Under 25.5 (-115 on Fanatics)
Memphis has been one of the weakest 1st-quarter teams in the league, but this is more about San Antonio’s up-and-coming defense. Victor Wembanyama has developed into a legitimate anchor, and the version of the Spurs’ lineup with him at center has produced solid defensive results.
The starting five of Vassell/Jones/Champagnie/Sochan/Wembanyama has a solid 112.7 defensive rating over what is now a large sample (353 minutes). They’ve come out strong early in games, posting a 109.5 defensive rating in the 1st quarter. San Antonio is top 10 in 1st-quarter defensive rating over the past 15 games.
The Grizzlies are 27th in 1st-quarter scoring and 25th in 1st-quarter offensive rating. Desmond Bane’s return has provided a spark lately, but he’s doubtful tonight. Would expect Jaren Jackson Jr. and company to struggle early on here.
Santi Aldama Under 7.5 Rebounds (-120 on Fanatics)
While everyone else is watching March Madness, I’ll be locked into Memphis/San Antonio. Another Grizzlies bet!
This is a good sell-high spot for Aldama. He’s racked up 18 rebounds over the past 2 games but on just 26 rebound chances. Hard to imagine he keeps converting at a near-70% rate. Aldama also averaged 36.4 minutes in those games, with the help of an OT game against Sacramento. He’d been at 29.8 MPG in his 24 starts prior to this stretch. Somewhere in the middle is most likely.
San Antonio struggled on the glass to start the season, but they’ve settled into being a mediocre matchup. They’re 16th in rebounding rate in 2024. Certainly not a team to target anymore.
If you like game logs, Aldama had been held under 8 rebounds in 20 of 24 games since he entered the starting lineup until this recent 2-game run of big rebounding numbers.
Season Record
- Game Picks: 10-10
- Prop Picks: 12-7
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