NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, November 6: Timberwolves at Grizzlies
The Minnesota Timberwolves opened as 5.5-point road favorites against the Memphis Grizzlies and the line has already moved to -5 at online sports betting sites. The total opened at 224.5 and has increased to 226. Here’s a look at NBA odds and basketball betting tips today, Wednesday, November 6, 2019.
NBA Betting Picks for Wednesday, November 6: Timberwolves at Grizzlies -5, O/U 226
This game will be an interesting one Wednesday night. While the Grizzlies have been awful through the first six games of the season, they do have potential with young talented players gaining experience on the court. Tonight’s game will feature Karl Anthony Towns returning from a two-game suspension while Jeff Teague is questionable. Teague is a bit of a mystery and worth keeping tabs on up to tip-off, especially for daily fantasy purposes.
Sitting at 1-5, the Grizzlies have one of the worst records in the league so far. While they haven’t been successful, they have been a fun team to watch ranking 4th in pace and near the middle of the pack in defense, so points will be scored as these two teams face off. Memphis gets a boost with the return of J.J. Redick. The added depth along with the coaching staff’s lack of willingness to play their players a full complement of minutes, Memphis will operate with run-and-gun philosophy. The Grizzlies have already played four games at home and have not fared well going 1-3 ATS, although last year we saw the Grizzlies go 12-8 ATS as a home dog. Additionally, the Grizzlies have been equally as bad at cover the Over, going 2-4 so far and 1-3 at home.
While the Grizzlies play at one of the fastest paces in the league, it is the Timberwolves are currently ranked at the top of the league in terms of pace. With Towns coming back and with two teams who have no interest in taking their time to get a shot off accompanied with average defenses, I’m expecting a plethora of points to be scored. Currently, this game sits as the third highest total on the betting board, and I don’t think that is high enough. As stated earlier, neither of these teams are that great on the defensive end, but while the Grizzlies have been terrible at covering the Over, the Timberwolves have been the opposite going 4-2 on the Over through their first six games. Even though the Grizzlies’ offense has been lackluster, this feels like a great spot for Over bettors.
My NBA Betting Pick: Over 226 points
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Anytime we get two teams playing at this pace, the total should be more in the ~230 range. it appears that the smart money agrees with me. The majority of the public has been betting on the under, yet the total for the game has risen 1.5 points from where it started. I think this is largely due to the perception that the Grizzlies were one of the slowest paced teams in the league last year, but they no longer have two old men — Conley and Gasol — slowing them down. This team is completely different, people just haven’t caught on yet. I really like this game to crush the Over as the teams continue to outrun the rest of the league in terms of pace.
NBA Betting Picks for Today — Player Props
Jonas Valanciunas *Over 9.5 Rebounds (+110) —*Valanciunas has played six games and he has double-digit rebounds in four of them. While a matchup against KAT isn’t a great one and we can’t always count on him to play more than 20 minutes, the pace of this game will result in plent of shots, and as a result, plenty of rebounding opportunities. Valancuinas crashes the boards and we cash our player prop tickets.
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Here are my favorite Monkey Knife Fights props for the Timberwolves at Grizzlies:
Andrew Wiggins (+10.5) vs Jonas Valanciunas: Total Fantasy Points
JA Morant (+.5) vs Jaren Jackson: Total Fantasy Points
Jeff Teague (-.5) vs Jae Crowder: Total Fantasy Points
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