NBA Daily Punts: February 21, 2014
We’re now fortunately through the trade deadline, and several of the moves made over the last few days will have an impact on tonight’s fantasy landscape. At least we can feel good about playing guys like Rajon Rondo and Pau Gasol without worrying about them getting pulled after roster lock (I’m still feeling the Steve Blake burn from Tuesday). We have a decent 10 game schedule to pick from tonight, and both of everyone’s favorite fantasy targets (Sixers/Lakers) are in action, so there will be a lot to sort through especially as lineups come out around roster lock. It’s still unclear what a team like the Sixers will do with their rotation with Turner and Hawes out of town, so we could see a lot of variety in GPP’s/tournaments.
I’m going to try another new format today since I’m a little short on time; instead of listing a bevy of picks from each site, I’m going to list my favorite value play at each position on both FanDuel and Draftkings. It seems like listing 15 FanDuel value plays is a little unnecessary if only 3 or 4 of them will be in the majority of my lineups, so I’ll try to stick to the most viable options.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Point Guard – Patty Mills – Mills has played really well off the bench with the Spurs dealing with injuries to Tony Parker and Kawhi Leonard, and he’s got the rock in his hands a ton when he’s out on the floor. While some people might be scared away from him in cash games since he’s a “bench player,” his $5,100 price tag is still too good to pass up. Mills has scored at least 39.5 FP’s in 3 of his past 5 games, and managed to get a whopping 26 shot attempts up in just 29 minutes on the floor against Portland (with Duncan out of action, to be fair). Phoenix really likes to run so this game should be more up-tempo than the Spurs are used to, which should only help Mills’ cause tonight.
Shooting Guard – James Anderson – This one is a little bit of a homer pick, but with Turner out of town Anderson should see all of the playing time he can handle. The 76ers will be shorthanded in general with Hawes and Lavoy Allen also getting moved, and it’s still not totally clear if Byron Mullens will suit up tonight (if he does, he’s definitely worth a look. He’s basically a poor man’s Spencer Hawes). A lot of us like to punt one of the SG spots on FanDuel, and the choice between Anderson (who’s priced at $4300) and Belinelli becomes easier for me with Kawhi Leonard expected back.
Small Forward – J.R. Smith – Smith will move into the starting lineup tonight for Iman Shumpert, which makes him very appealing for just $5,400 in a nice match-up with Orlando. I’d be pretty surprised if he didn’t pay that number off if he plays at least 35 minutes, which seems likely with Shump out of action. Wesley Johnson also has appeal at the SF spot for $5200, but I’d prefer Smith’s upside in tournaments. If you’re not comfortable with Jeff Green tonight, rolling with both Smith and Wes Johnson opens up salary at other positions I expect both players to hit value.
Power Forward – Byron Mullens or Arnett Moultrie – This is obviously dependent on Mullens’ status tonight, but if he plays and starts, it’s going to be really hard for me to not have a decent amount of exposure to him. He’s minimum priced and should take over at least a good chunk of Spencer Hawes role, and the fact that the only viable centers on the roster (Hawes and Lavoy Allen) leaves him to fight for playing time with Arnett Moultrie. Moultrie will see a big boost in playing time if Mullens doesn’t suit up, but even if he plays I’d still expect to see Moultrie somewhere between 25-30 minutes, which would be enough for him to pay off his minimum salary. If Mullens starts, he’s the guy I want to play between these two. Update – Mullens will NOT play tonight, so give Moultrie a nice bump in value.
Center – Enes Kanter – Kanter will get the start tonight with Favors not traveling with the team, and he’ll take on a banged up Blazers frontcourt. Robin Lopez can match his size and he’s actually a decent defender, but I think Kanter gets the best of him on the offensive end. There is no better value at the center position then Kanter for $4,600.
DraftKings
Point Guard – Mo Williams – I thought about listing Tony Wroten here, but the $600 price difference led me to Williams. The LMA injury is causing them to play a bit smaller with a combo of Batum/Robinson/Wright at PF, which leaves Williams some extra playing time at either guard spot. He’s played 26 and 27 minutes the past two games, which I think gives you a good idea of what to expect tonight.
Shooting Guard – James Anderson – Insert his FanDuel analysis here, except his price here is $4,100. I’d be really surprised if he didn’t pay that off tonight. Danny Green is also in play for $4,400, but the return of Kawhi Leonard led me to being more comfortable with Anderson.
Small Forward – Kyle Singler – He struggled in the last game against Charlotte thanks to landing in foul trouble, but he should be back to playing big minutes again at home against Atlanta. Singler is still under $4K which makes him a fairly safe cash game play taking his playing time into account, and he’s shown enough upside to make him a useful GPP punt. I’m expecting somewhere between 20-25 FP’s from him tonight. You could certainly argue that Gerald Wallace is the better play at $3,900 (and I’ll want a little exposure to both), and I would lean that way in GPP’s due to the match-up and his ability to contribute in multiple categories.
Power Forward – Arnett Moultrie – He’s basically impossible to avoid at $3K tonight, especially if Mullens can’t go. Even if this game turns into a blowout (which it will), Moultrie won’t be negatively impacted by it; he’ll just get playing time against the Mavs second unit. The 76ers are shorthanded tonight after making a few trades yesterday, so I’ll have Moultrie in a good number of lineups at minimum price.
Center – Elton Brand – After his big game on Wednesday, Brand should have a little longer leash tonight against the Pistons big three. Atlanta will have to stay with a big lineup against these guys, so I’m expecting them to give Brand another 30+ minutes of playing time, which will be more then enough for him to pay off his $4,200 price tag. Brandon Bass is also appealing for $4,500 at either the PF or C spot, but I’ll take Brand with the $300 discount.