NBA Daily Punts: February 25, 2014
I’m going to stick with Friday’s format instead of listing a bevy of picks from each site; I’ll list my favorite value play at each position on both FanDuel and DraftKings. It seems like listing 15 FanDuel value plays is a little unnecessary if only 3 or 4 of them will be in the majority of my lineups, so I’ll try to stick to the most viable options.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Point Guard – Jarrett Jack ($3,800) – I also don’t mind George Hill at $5,200, but the difference in price between these two will not equal the difference in production. Jack has been playing huge minutes the last few games with C.J. Miles and Dion Waiters both injured, but he hasn’t done a whole lot with them. He’s scored under 18 FD points in each of his last two games (in which he’s played no less then 38 minutes), but I don’t think that’s a trend that will continue. For the combination of price and playing time, Jack is my top value play of the night at PG on FanDuel.
Point Guard #2 – Aaron Brooks ($3,600) – You could also use Evan Fournier in this spot, but even with Lawson expected to miss tonight’s game, he’s really tough to trust. Since I can’t see myself playing any of the SG’s below $5,500, I’ll go with another point guard in Brooks. He’s priced just $100 above the minimum and would start at point guard if Lawson sits, taking on the defensively challenged Damian Lillard in an up-tempo game. If Lawson sits, I’d be shocked if Brooks doesn’t pay off this price tag. If you really need to punt the SG spot, Fournier, McLemore and Bazemore are all in play, but are better used as GPP punts.
Small Forward – P.J. Tucker ($5,500) – Tucker is probably best served as a GPP play due to his boom-or-bust habits, but I think he’s in a good spot for a bounce back game after a few recent sub-par stat lines. This game is expected to be one of the highest scoring games of the night, and Minnesota has struggled with opposing SF’s lately (27th over the past 15 days, 22nd on the season). Tucker isn’t your prototypical small forward and isn’t a huge part of the offense, but this should be the type of game that suits his style well and I can see him crossing the 30 FP mark tonight.
Power Forward – Trevor Booker ($3,500) – Both Elton Brand and Mike Scott are also fine punt options at PF tonight, but Booker gets the nod here due to the price difference. Nene is expected to be out for awhile, and Booker has played well at times as a starter this season. Not only is his playing time going to get a nice bump, but he takes on the Orlando front-court tonight which won’t provide much resistance. Booker for minimum price is really hard to get away from, and I’d imagine he’ll be pretty highly owned this evening. Thomas Robinson is another nice play at $4,300, he blew up on Sunday and has a very nice match-up with the Denver front-court.
Center – Timofey Mozgov ($3,900) – Mozgov has finally been moved into the starting lineup alongside Kenneth Faried, as it seems like Brian Shaw is sick of the defensive mess that was currently starting in his front-court. Faried is not the most consistent defender and Hickson doesn’t defend well either (not to mention he’s undersized), so this move makes sense and will hopefully lead to some extra playing time for Mozgov. He’s been a per-minute monster at times this season, and with 28-30+ minutes, he should have no trouble paying off the $3,900 price tag. I have this eerie feeling that this move doesn’t lead to a big minutes bump, but the upside outweighs the risk for me tonight.
DraftKings
Point Guard – Aaron Brooks ($3,000) – It’s hard to argue with a minimum priced starting point guard in a match-up with Damian Lillard. Brooks has been playing an average of 30 minutes in his two games with Lawson on the shelf, and should be expected to approach that number again tonight if Lawson can’t go. Ty is still a game-time decision, although the general consensus seems to be that he won’t suit up tonight. Wait for the Lawson news and plug in Brooks if he’s ruled out.
Shooting Guard – Jarrett Jack ($4,600) – He’s $100 over the BBB limit, but he’s the only option anywhere in this price range that I’d consider for a cash game lineup. Fournier is playable in a GPP, but he’s way too up and down to count on in a cash game. I’d rather take the safe minutes with Jack, even though his match-up isn’t as favorable as Fournier’s (or Ben McLemore, who should be matched up with Harden).
Small Forward – DeMarre Carroll ($4,000) – Carroll is criminally underpriced at DraftKings right now. The Hawks will be without Millsap, Ayon and Antic tonight, leaving the front-court duties to Brand, Carroll and Mike Scott. He’s got the best shot of all the cheap SF’s to exceed 35 FP’s tonight, even in a tough match-up with the Bulls. Carroll is a very safe play in all formats.
Power Forward – Mike Scott and Elton Brand ($4,300) – As I noted with Carroll, the Hawks are without Paul Millsap, Gustavo Ayon and Pero Antic, so Brand and Scott will be two of the three capable front-court players. Scott posted a huge game against the Knicks off the bench on Saturday, dropping 30 points to go along with 8 boards. Brand has been steady since taking over for Ayon and although he struggled in the Knicks match-up, he still played 43 minutes and I don’t think many people expected him to thrive against Tyson Chandler. Trevor Booker at $3,100 is another nice option tonight if you don’t want to get to invested in a team playing the Bulls, and Thomas Robinson ($3,400) is also very much in play.
Center – Timofey Mozgov ($4,200) – He’s starting and the price is low, so I’ll take the plunge on him tonight in a fairly high percentage of my lineups. I’m finding Joakim Noah in a lot of my cash game lineups which is causing me to fade him in some of them (although I can still use him at center with Noah at PF), but you have to like his GPP upside as the starter against Portland.