NBA Daily Punts: January 27, 2014
When I start building my lineups, I like to look for a few low salary options that should safely reach value. On most days, there will be a few injuries that open up opportunities for players who don’t typically see big minutes. A change in a teams rotation or a particular match-up can also be the cause of a value play emerging. As we all know, NBA injury news continues to pour in as the day moves along and is not usually made official until close to tip-off, so be sure to sign up for our NBA alerts and check out the RotoGrinders Twitter Feed leading up to roster lock.
I’m going to stick with the new format, separating the three major sites (FD, DS, DK) into their own sections, instead of listing players by position. While the analysis for each player won’t be as heavy, I’ll get into some site-specific plays that I may not have listed in the prior format. Based on comments the last few days, it seems like people prefer this format over the prior setup, but any feedback is still appreciated!
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Trey Burke – He’s slightly above the BBB cutoff on FanDuel, but I like him a lot tonight and he fits the bill on a six game schedule. Burke has a few things going for him tonight; he’s playing at home, where he’s played much better this season, and he’ll have the pleasure of being guarded by IT2 tonight. The former Michigan Wolverine has a nice height advantage and the Kings play at a high pace, so there is a lot to like about Burke tonight for $5,900.
Terrence Ross – With DeMar DeRozan out, there are a lot of shot attempts to be picked up, and Ross should be the biggest beneficiary tonight. Kyle Lowry and Greivis Vasquez will also pick up some responsibility, but Ross gets the biggest bump of the group. He should have absolutely no problem paying off his $4,600 salary.
Gerald Green – With Leandro Barbosa stepping into a meaningful bench role with the Suns, Green’s production has been cut into a bit, but he’s in a great spot tonight. We all know how terrible the Sixers are defensively, and their pace of play plus a ton of turnovers (which equal fast break points) puts about 6 or 7 Suns in play this evening. Green can post big stat lines in the right match-ups (he went off against the Lakers earlier this month), and I’m counting on him to outproduce his $5,600 salary against Philly.
Shelvin Mack – He’s PG eligible on FD, which makes him a little harder to fit into a lineup, but Mack will start at PG again tonight and is a pretty safe cash game punt. For just $4,300, it’s hard to argue with the amount of usage Mack should see tonight, even after a so-so performance in his last game (which can be attributed to a blowout). The Thunder struggle to defend the PG spot and I’d be shocked if Mack didn’t play more then the 24 minutes he saw last game.
Louis Williams – Lou Will also gets a value bump with Teague on the shelf, since he’ll pick up some of the ball-handling duties off the bench. I’d rather play Terrence Ross for just $100 more then Williams, but I do think he pays off his $4,500 price tag tonight.
Marcus Thornton – This play depends on the health of Rudy Gay, but if he sits out again tonight, Thornton is in a nice spot and should once again crack the 20 FP mark. His price has come up since last night, but he’s still just $4,100 and with the upside he has flashed recently, it’s tough to imagine him not paying off that price if Gay is out again.
DeMarre Carroll – He returned to the starting lineup on Saturday night and played well while the game was still somewhat competitive, and he’ll be needed to shadow Kevin Durant tonight. While that puts him at risk for foul trouble, he’s still a nice play at a slim small forward spot for $5,300. I’d expect him to fall somewhere between 25-30 FP’s tonight.
P.J. Tucker – Tucker apparently suffered a hand injury near the end of last night, but he plans on playing through it and steps into a great match-up tonight in Philly. If he can see his normal allotment of playing time, he should easily pay off his $5,100 price tag. He’ll have a good shot for a double-double with a few steals/assists against an up-tempo 76ers team.
Markieff Morris – The Morris twins return to their hometown tonight, and Markieff should be able to put on a pretty good show against the Sixers front-court. In the last meeting between these teams, Morris didn’t do much in just 21 minutes, but he’s been playing well lately and this seems like the type of team he should see a little extra run against. If he plays 30+ minutes, Morris will absolutely crush his $4,900 price tag.
Miles Plumlee – The playing time between Plumlee and Markieff Morris has been split pretty even lately, which has led to a dip in production for Plumlee as of late. However, he had a huge game against the Sixers in the last meeting (22 pts, 13 reb, 3 blks) and he absolutely dominated Spencer Hawes on the offensive end in that game. If he can get it going early, he could earn a little extra PT, which goes a long way against a team like this.
Jason Thompson – Thompson is $1000 cheaper then Plumlee and $500 cheaper then Morris, which probably makes him a safer cash game punt then either of the Suns big men. DeMarcus Cousins has already been ruled out of tonight’s game, so Thompson will once again play a major role in the Kings front-court. The match-up with Utah should set Thompson up for a 25-30 FP night.
Derrick Williams – He benefits slightly from Cousins absence, but he would get a much bigger boost if Rudy Gay were to also sit out. If Gay sits, he’s one of the top PF plays of the night for his price tag ($4,300).
Jonas Valanciunas – If you really need to punt the center spot, I’d rather play Val over a guy like Larry Sanders, except maybe in a few GPP lineups. Valanciunas should pick up a few extra shot attempts with DeMar DeRozan on the shelf, and while I don’t like the match-up, this type of pace probably plays into Valanciunas’ strengths.
DraftKings
Terrence Ross – On a site that doesn’t deduct for missed shots and awards a 3PT bonus, how can you not love Ross tonight? He should be in for a nice bump in production/playing time with DeRozan out, so fire him up for $4,500.
Mike Dunleavy – He’s $100 above the BBB cutoff, but I like him enough tonight to include him here. Dunleavy has been right around the 30 FP mark in his last four games, and I’d expect him to get there again tonight against the fast-paced T’Wolves. Like Ross, he gets a nice bump from the 3PT bonus, since he adds a handful of those every night.
Shelvin Mack – Starting point guard against the Thunder for $4,400? I’m in. His poor game (which actually wasn’t all that poor considering his price) on Saturday was the product of a blowout, and Mack will bounce back with around 30 minutes of playing time tonight.
Louis Williams – Lou Will sits at just $3,900 tonight, which puts him in play with Teague out again. Mack won’t shoulder all of the ball-handling duties, and Williams will probably have the ball in his hands more towards the end of the game, as long as this one stays close. Expect somewhere around 25 FP’s for Williams tonight.
Marcus Thornton – If Rudy Gay sits this one out, Thornton is a fine play for $3,800. After a 50+ FP night against Indiana, he followed up with a 22.5 FP effort last night, and I’d expect him to fall just above that number as long as Gay is out.
Leandro Barbosa – It’s the Sixers. Everyone is in play. Barbosa is still priced at the minimum on DraftKings and he’s in play as a GPP punt if you want to spend up for a guy like Kevin Durant. He’s risky due to the fact that he might not even play 20 minutes, but he doesn’t need a ton of court time to pay off his price.
Jason Thompson – Thompson is one of my favorite forward punts tonight, and he’s even more appealing on DraftKings with his center eligibility. Cousins has already been ruled out, so Thompson should have a nice night in the paint against a weak Utah interior. He’s a relatively safe bet for a double-double.
Derrick Williams – Like Marcus Thornton, his value depends on the health of Rudy Gay. If Gay can’t go this evening, Williams is one of the top punt plays on the board for just $4,300. The match-up is nice and the O/U sits at 205.5, so there is a lot to like here.
P.J. Tucker – Tucker posted a big game last night (40.5 DK points), but he suffered a hand injury late in the game. He is apparently going to play through the injury, and I’d be pretty surprised if he didn’t return value for $4,300 against the Sixers tonight.
DeMarre Carroll – He’s another safe cash game play tonight, but anyone who shadows KD is always a risk for foul trouble. Carroll will see all the playing time he can handle with the Hawks still short-handed, and he’ll return value for $4,000 if he can avoid picking up early fouls.
Khris Middleton – I have no clue what Larry Drew is thinking with this team, because it would seem to make sense that the Bucks would want to give Middleton the chance to shine considering they are fighting for ping pong balls at this point. He has flashed major upside in big minutes earlier in the year, but it’s just too hard to rely on him for consistent playing time. However, Middleton is very much in play as a GPP option for $3,900.
Mike Scott – He’s another beneficiary of the Hawks recent injuries, although he hasn’t done much in the last few games. I won’t be rostering him in any of my cash games, but he could be worth a GPP flier against the Thunder tonight.
Gustavo Ayon – Still priced at just $3,200, Ayon has a great shot to return value yet again tonight. Expect somewhere between 25-30 minutes for Ayon, which will be more then enough time for him to pay off this price.
DraftStreet
Channing Frye – A match-up against the Sixers and a 214 O/U seems like a good spot for Frye to post one of his big games. I’d feel better about rolling him out if he were closer to $9K (he’s priced at $10,748 tonight), but Frye is one of the better GPP plays of the evening at this price. He posted 29.25 DS points the last time these teams met, and he did it in only 26 minutes. If he can cross the 30 minute mark tonight, he’s got 40 FP upside.
Derrick Williams – I’d only play him if we get confirmation that Rudy Gay is out, and he’d have pretty nice upside if that is the case. Between Williams and Marcus Thornton (who is priced about the same as D-Will), I’d take Williams, but both have a nice shot to return value with big minutes.
Jason Thompson – He’s the Kings value play I trust the most without word on Rudy Gay, and he’ll be a pretty popular cash game play for just $9,198. Cousins has already been ruled out, so expect Thompson to control the glass for Sacramento tonight.
Mike Dunleavy – There is not a ton of upside with this pick, but if you’re just looking for 20-25 FP’s to round out a lineup, Dunleavy would be a pretty nice cash game play. The Bulls should see a few extra possessions against Minnesota, which could lead to a few extra 3PT attempts for Dunleavy.
O.J. Mayo – Strictly a GPP play, even for only $6,169. If he can play 25 minutes, Mayo has a good shot to pay off this price, and you could get lucky and hit on one of his big games.
Aaron Gray – If you really want to punt the center spot, I can’t really argue with Aaron Gray for $6,843. While he’s playing significant minutes, he still doesn’t really produce all that much, but he has a nice shot to reach value against the Utah front-court with Cousins out tonight.