NBA Daily Punts: March 28th, 2014
We have a nice twelve-game schedule on tap for tonight, and it’s the last Friday of the season that we can focus solely on the NBA, so enjoy it before all hell breaks loose on Monday! There looks to be a fair amount of injury news that will break close to roster lock, with guys like LaMarcus Aldridge, Isaiah Thomas, Eric Gordon and Brian Roberts all still up in the air in terms of their status for tonight.
Since I can never settle on a format, I’ll try a different one here. I’ll list my favorite punt at each position for all three of the major sites, and hopefully there won’t be a ton of overlap between them.
In order to be considered a “punt,” a player must meet Bargain Bin Baller status on either FanDuel ($5500), DraftStreet ($9500) or DraftKings ($4500).
FanDuel
Point Guard – Shaun Livingston ($4,700) – There’s a few different ways you could go to punt the point guard spot, but I’ll roll with Livingston because he’s a bit cheaper then the other players I considered (Trey Burke, Jarrett Jack). Livingston saw just 26 minutes on Wednesday due to some foul trouble, but he still exceed 20 FP’s and assuming he gets back to playing 30-35 minutes, he should be able to pay off the $4,700 price tag. He’s probably my favorite value point guard in cash games tonight.
Shooting Guard – Kevin Martin ($5,800) – I’m cheating a little bit with this one because he’s $300 over the BBB limit, but I like him considerably more (at this moment) then any of the other shooting guards priced in the $4,000-$5,500 range. That could change later tonight when news breaks on Eric Gordon and Brian Roberts, because if they are both out then I’d want to target either Austin Rivers or Anthony Morrow, both of which are priced under $4,000. Morrow would be intriguing if he drew another start tonight, but Rivers was supposed to get the starting nod on Wednesday before he himself was ruled out. I’ll have more exposure to whoever starts between those two, but Chris Douglas-Roberts is also a sneaky GPP option at $4,000 with Gary Neal out of the lineup.
Small Forward – Al-Farouq Aminu ($4,100) – If Gordon and Roberts sit out again tonight, Aminu should once again blow this price tag out of the water. He’s flashed big upside at times this season, but most of that came with Anthony Davis out of the lineup as Aminu was able to contribute more on the glass without The Brow scooping up all the rebounds. However, if Gordon/Roberts are out, he’ll be a good bet for 30 minutes of playing time and that should be more then enough for him to pay off the $4,100 price tag. He’s my favorite GPP punt of the night at SF and I think you could trust him in cash games if we get word before roster lock that both of the guards are out. Corey Brewer, J.R. Smith and Draymond Green (if Lee is out) are a few other options I closely considered here.
Power Forward – Jordan Hill ($4,900 – I most likely would have listed Darrell Arthur here ($3,900) if we already had word that he would get the start for Mozgov, but that hasn’t been announced yet. Hill was an absolute monster last night against the Bucks, and I’d be surprised if he didn’t follow it up with another 30+ FP performance against the T’Wolves. As long as the minutes are there, Hill will be a solid fantasy contributor in Mike D’Antoni’s offense. I don’t have any issue with punting both PF spots tonight with Hill and Arthur.
Center – Gorgui Dieng ($5,300) – I know FanDuel is a little slow to update salaries, but I was surprised to see him still below the $5,500 mark for tonight’s contests. Nikola Pekovic is considered doubtful and if he can’t go, I would expect Dieng to be the most popular play at center tonight. Don’t over think this one; once Pek is ruled out, get Gorgui in your cash game lineups, and he’s a fine option in GPP’s unless you’re trying to fade the popular play in a few lineups. Jonas Valanciunas and Kyle O’Quinn are also in play under $5,000.
DraftKings
Point Guard – Ray McCallum ($3,700) – His price has shot up $700 since Wednesday night, but if IT2 is forced to sit out again tonight, McCallum makes an excellent play at this price as the starting PG. I’m willing to list him here without knowing whether or not Thomas plays because you’ll have the luxury of being able to wait until an announcement is made on IT2’s status. If he can’t go, McCallum becomes an easy plug-and-play, but if Thomas goes, you can pivot to either Anthony Morrow or Austin Rivers if Gordon/Roberts are ruled out (New Orleans and Sacramento both tip at 8 EST). You can probably find a few other ways to pivot off McCallum if Thomas plays, and make sure you leave that option open for yourself when constructing lineups. If you’re not into McCallum for whatever reason, Shaun Livingston is still under-priced at $4,300 and is a very safe cash game punt at that price.
Shooting Guard – Terrence Ross ($4,000) – Ross is actually one of my favorite GPP plays on DraftKings tonight, since the Raptors have made it clear that they want to give Lowry and DeRozan a little bit more rest down the stretch. Both Ross and Vasquez benefit from that the most, and Ross has actually seen 37, 32 and 34 minutes over the last three games. His upside is extremely appealing at this price if he can get hot from three-point land, and I think he’s playable in cash games as well.
Small Forward – Corey Brewer ($4,500) – The match-up against the Lakers is almost enough to peak my interest, but Brewer is also coming off of a few good games and should be feeling confident heading into tonight. He was a big part of the win against Atlanta (18 points, 3 steals) and the Lakers are ranked 29th (on the season and over the last 15 days) against the small forward position, so there isn’t much scaring me off of Brewer tonight. He’s not someone I want to roster across the board (cash games and tournaments), but he’s a guy I certainly want some exposure to in large-field GPP’s.
Power Forward – Jordan Hill ($4,300) – Everything I said about Hill in the FanDuel analysis applies here as well. Anthony Randolph ($3,000) is another intriguing option and if he drew the start ahead of Arthur, it would be very surprising if he couldn’t put together 18-20 FP’s to pay off the minimum salary price tag.
Center – Darrell Arthur ($3,600) – Arthur will most likely start at center with Mozgov out of action, and he becomes almost a must play at this price if that’s the case. Like I said in Hill’s DK analysis, Anthony Randolph is also a nice option if he were to draw the start ahead of Arthur.
DraftStreet
Guard – Kevin Martin ($9,744) – His price on DraftStreet is almost too good to pass up in a match-up with the Lakers. The missed field goals are a big boon to his fantasy success on sites like this because he doesn’t make up for it with peripheral stats very often, so he needs his shot to be falling for him to have any chance at exceeding value. You need about 25 FP’s from him at this price tag, and against an LA team that’s ranked dead last against the SG spot this season (24th over the past 15 days), he should be able to get to that number. He’s actually had a handful of nice games against this team already this season; in three meetings thus far, he’s averaged 24.3 points, 3.3 rebounds, 2.3 assists and 1.3 steals, which is clearly more then enough to get him to the 25 FP threshold. He’ll almost certainly be in every single one of my cash game lineups on DS.
Forward – Corey Brewer ($8,408) – He needs about 21-24 FP’s to pay off this price tag, and I have a hard time believing he doesn’t get there in this match-up. The T’Wolves will be one of the most popular targets as a team tonight, so why not get some cheap exposure with guys that are in prime positions to exceed value? Going with Martin and Brewer in cash games gives you a ton of salary flexibility with the rest of your lineup.
Center – Chris Kaman ($9,735) – And my DS value plays conclude without me listing a single player outside of the Wolves/Lakers game. It’s one of those nights (of which there are many) where it’s tough to find value you can count on (at least on this site), and I wouldn’t feel comfortable playing any of the centers priced below Kaman as of this writing. I could see the case for Andray Blatche in a GPP since he’s priced just above $8K, but he hasn’t flashed any real upside lately. While Kaman won’t have much in the way of pre-game strategy discussion with D’Antoni (they apparently haven’t spoken in a month, in case you missed it on Twitter the last few days), the Lakers will need his size to match-up with Love and Dieng and I’d be surprised if he didn’t see more playing time then the 21 minutes he received last night. To be honest, I’m finding myself spending up at the position for guys like Al Jefferson, Joakim Noah, Andre Drummond or Nikola Vucevic, but if you need to go cheap, Kaman has the upside to give you 30-35 FP’s if all goes well for him.