NBA DFS Core Plays LIVE: Wednesday, November 30th

Andy Means (meansy53) will be bringing Premium subscribers his top NBA DFS plays to build around for the upcoming slate. A former Duke basketball walk-on, Meansy will also give you his thoughts on the slate as a whole from a macro perspective. On weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reins.

GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS

3:55 PM ET: The tables are set for now. And some other news dropped while I was finishing them. The Clippers listed Norman Powell as doubtful and Reggie Jackson as questionable.

3:12 PM ET: Initial run of the tables is up. I will go back in now and start adding more notes. Giddey up!

1:35 PM ET: The news cycle has been churning for a few hours. The key takeaways so far being:

CJ McCollum and Naji Marshall have been ruled out for New Orleans, whereas Larry Nance will play.

Three of the Heat Q’s (Robinson, Martin, Vincent) are expected to play.

Josh Richardson has been ruled out by San Antonio.

Atlanta ruled out Justin Holiday and is also calling De’Andre Hunter questionable.

And then another big boy just dropped, with Shai Gilgeous-Alexander being ruled out by OKC.

Hopefully we get a bit of a lull in the news now for the next hour or two, so I will get to the tables soon.

8:20 AM ET: We’ve got a whopper of a 13-game slate tonight, so let’s not waste any time with pleasantries. Luckily, only 3 of the 26 teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, so let’s start there to see what we might be looking at with injury/rest situations when those teams release their injury reports later today.

New York Knicks: In last night’s demolition of the Detroit Pistons, the Knicks actually had a fully healthy roster. Immanuel Quickley was questionable leading up to the game with a sore knee, but he ended up playing and logging 22 minutes. I’m not expecting anything out of the ordinary from the Knicks, but we’ll know for sure later today.

LA Clippers: The Clippers are a bit of a different story. They edged out the Trail Blazers last night in Portland, a game in which they were without all of Paul George, Kawhi Leonard, Luke Kennard, and John Wall. The first three of those guys have already been ruled out for tonight’s game in Utah, and all reports indicate that Wall’s absence was nothing more than back-to-back related as they take it easy on his knee (he has sat out one leg of back-to-backs all season). We’ll have to see if any other names pop up when their injury report comes out later today.

Portland Trail Blazers: As for the other side of that LAC/POR game from last night, the Trail Blazers were without Damian Lillard, Keon Johnson, and Gary Payton. We know that Dame and GPII are definitely still out for tonight’s game, whereas the status of Keon Johnson is unclear (although seems doubtful at best considering he hasn’t been active in weeks). The other name of note here is Nassir Little, who left last night’s game with a hip injury and did not return. We are treating him doubtful for now and keeping him out of projections. We’ll get clarity on Little and any other Trail Blazers later this afternoon.

When we look at all of the other teams in The Situation Room, we see a lot of familiar names listed as Out (e.g., Harden, CP3, Maxey, Butler, Ingram, etc.). We know what we are getting with a lot of those situations since those guys have already been missing games, and the uncertainty is heightened on a few of those teams. CJ McCollum has been upgraded to questionable after missing the last three games. Miami has listed their whole roster as either probable or questionable (you will actually have to do a real count before confirming that I am being facetious). There are plenty of other slate-shifters in there who are listed questionable that I haven’t even mentioned yet (e.g. Jaylen, SGA).

The one “new” situation we have tonight of a player being out is Minnesota and Karl-Anthony Towns. KAT went down with a calf injury last game and will miss multiple weeks. Two things immediately jump out when I first think about how to handle this:

1) KAT hasn’t missed a game yet this season.

2) The Minnesota roster is obviously different this season with the addition of Rudy Gobert. So in years past where it would be Naz Reid SZN, he is probably just strictly looking at backup center minutes to Gobert.

CourtIQ is obviously the perfect tool for this kind of situation, and here is the query with KAT off of the court this season. Anthony Edwards appears to be the pretty clear winner in his 171-minute sample, as he sees a substantial increase in usage rate (up 4.9 percentage points). The end result for Ant in this sample is:

32% usage rate, 19.3% assist rate, 8.6% rebound rate, 16.1% turnover rate, 1.18 FD / 1.26 DK points per minute

The very initial run of our projections has Ant at:

31.1% usage rate, 20% assist rate, 9.3% rebound rate, 13.1% turnover rate, 1.14 FD / 1.20 DK points per minute

Other guys will obviously also see per-minute boosts, and then you have guys like Kyle Anderson who will benefit more in just the sheer increase in minutes played. And let’s not forget either that Jaden McDaniels, their starting small forward, is listed as questionable after missing the last two games. They are also still down Taurean Prince and Jordan McLaughlin. So if McDaniels happens to sit out again, these Timberwolves projections are going to go up even more.

But for now, let’s tie a bow on things and see what the day brings us. We already know we have a ton of things to be monitoring today in the news, but this slate also has the feeling of one of those days where some random, massive news-bomb gets dropped on us in the middle of the day that makes us rethink everything. After all, 26 friggin’ teams are playing tonight (only 2 are tomorrow!), so odds are we are in for some wackiness today.

NOTE: The closer we get to the slate locking, the less likely it is that I will have the necessary time to update the tables below. For the most up-to-date information, make sure you are watching Crunch Time and monitoring LineupHQ for my Core Play tags and our Premium NBA Projections.

Andy Means (meansy53) will be bringing Premium subscribers his top NBA DFS plays to build around for the upcoming slate. A former Duke basketball walk-on, Meansy will also give you his thoughts on the slate as a whole from a macro perspective. On weekends, the GPP maestro you all know and love, STLCards, takes the reins.

GENERAL SLATE THOUGHTS

8:20 AM ET: We’ve got a whopper of a 13-game slate tonight, so let’s not waste any time with pleasantries. Luckily, only 3 of the 26 teams are on the second night of a back-to-back, so let’s start there to see what we might be looking at with injury/rest situations when those teams release their injury reports later today.

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About the Author

  • Andy Means (meansy53)

  • Andy Means, aka meansy53, was a walk-on with the esteemed Duke University basketball team for three years before graduating in 2004. He has a Masters in Accounting from the Indiana University Kelley School of Business and has been playing DFS since 2014 – professionally since 2016. He is a featured contributor for RotoGrinders who has qualified for multiple live finals and displays his extensive basketball knowledge as the lead host of our top premium show – NBA Crunch Time.

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