NBA DFS Expert Survey: Sunday, March 19th

Want to know who we are paying up for in NBA DFS today? Wondering which value play we are eyeing most? You’re in luck. Our daily fantasy sports experts will answer a handful of questions to help you make crucial lineup-building decisions for tonight’s contests.

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in optimal lineups?

STLCardinals84: Damian Lillard

tcsmith031: Brandon Ingram

eys819: Damian Lillard

TJ Zwarych: Damian Lillard

Who is your favorite player to spend up for in large-field tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Brandon Ingram

tcsmith031: Jalen Green

eys819: Brandon Ingram

TJ Zwarych: Anthony Davis

Who is your favorite salary relief play in optimal lineups?

STLCardinals84: Max Strus

tcsmith031: Cole Anthony (FD) / Trendon Watford (DK)

eys819: Max Strus (FD) / Trendon Watford (DK)

TJ Zwarych: Max Strus

Who is your favorite salary relief play in large-field tournaments?

STLCardinals84: Cole Anthony

tcsmith031: Josh Richardson

eys819: Kevin Love

TJ Zwarych: Larry Nance

Who will be the biggest bust relative to salary?

STLCardinals84: Pascal Siakam

tcsmith031: Khris Middleton

eys819: Jrue Holiday

TJ Zwarych: Jrue Holiday

Who are you most afraid of being underweight on compared to the field?

STLCardinals84: Jimmy Butler

tcsmith031: Giannis Antetokounmpo

eys819: Bam Adebayo

TJ Zwarych: Giannis Antetokounmpo

Who do you believe you’ll be most overweight on compared to the field?

STLCardinals84: Damian Lillard

tcsmith031: Bam Adebayo

eys819: Trendon Watford

TJ Zwarych: Brandon Ingram

Which team are you targeting players from the most?

STLCardinals84: POR

tcsmith031: NOP

eys819: POR

TJ Zwarych: POR

Which team are you looking to avoid most?

STLCardinals84: TOR

tcsmith031: MIL

eys819: DET

TJ Zwarych: DET

Which useful trend or statistic stuck out most during your research?

STLCardinals84: Over the last 12 games, the Bucks are playing at the fastest pace in the NBA, and they also rank 6th in the league in offensive efficiency.

tcsmith031: The Clippers have a reputation as a stingy defensive team, but that’s not the reality. LA is just 15th in defensive rating so far this season, and they’ve slumped to 21st in that department since February 1st.

eys819: Damian Lillard has a 39.2% usage rate with Jerami Grant off the court this season, but Anfernee Simons has actually been the biggest benefactor. Simons has seen a bump of 6.5% usage up to 32.0% in over 562 minutes with Grant off the floor.

TJ Zwarych: On a small five-game slate, only two games feature spreads of fewer than five points. With a lot of potential blowouts tonight, choosing the one that stays close in a game stack for GPPs could be the deciding factor in tournaments.

Who is your top overall play (when considering price, matchup, roster construction, etc.) on the board and why?

STLCardinals84: Damian Lillard – He’s as safe as they come these days. Lillard hasn’t finished with fewer than 40 fantasy points in a game since January. Portland is on the fringe of falling out of the playoff race, so they need every win they can get. Even in a tough matchup, the floor is just too good to pass up. Lillard has the best floor/ceiling combination on this short slate.

tcsmith031: Damian Lillard – His usage spikes to about 39% so far this season with Jerami Grant on the bench, and he continues to see heavy minutes on a nightly basis. As mentioned, the Clippers also aren’t all they’re cracked up to be defensively. We’ve also seen Dame’s salaries come way down into the mid-$10,000s on DraftKings and FanDuel.

eys819: Damian Lillard – He is coming off a 41-point performance against an elite Boston defense. You can count on mid-30s minutes and a bunch of shots from Lillard on any given night. Grant’s absence only stands to raise his already massive ceiling. The Clippers have been a much softer matchup since the arrival of Russell Westbrook.

TJ Zwarych: Damian Lillard – His floor/ceiling combo is unmatched on this slate, as he has a 39% usage rate this season with Jerami Grant off the court. The Blazers are fighting for their playoff lives, and Lillard’s price is far less restrictive than the likes of Giannis, whom he very reasonably could outscore tonight.

Who is your top contrarian play (when considering price, matchup, projected ownership, etc.) on the board and why?

STLCardinals84: Kawhi Leonard – He rested yesterday and should be a full go today. It’s also possible that they might limit (or rest) Paul George on the B2B set. Leonard has logged 47+ fantasy points in each of the last four games he has played, and there’s intriguing potential at single digit ownership here.

tcsmith031: Bam Adebayo – For whatever reason, Bam always looks a little too cheap around the industry. Tonight’s matchup against the woeful Pistons is about as good as it gets, and he’s not projecting to be all that popular at a deep center position. It won’t take much to get comfortably north of the field on Adebayo in GPPs.

eys819: Anfernee Simons – While Dame will be a priority tonight, I will make sure to have Simons in any lineup I am going a different direction at the top of the salary range. The direct leverage on his popular teammate and Simons’ elite usage with Grant off the floor make him an outstanding tournament play. You can also stack up the game and play them together, but I would include at least one Clipper if going that route.

TJ Zwarych: Anthony Davis – Although he’s had the odd game where he doesn’t seem to play with any aggressiveness, AD still has a huge upside for his price tag without LeBron James. He has eclipsed 50 fantasy points in 7 of his last 9 games and draws a fantastic matchup at home tonight against Orlando. AD is coming in at sub 10% ownership across the industry with the second highest team total on the board.

What is your hot take of the day?

STLCardinals84: Brandon Ingram scores 60 fantasy points.

tcsmith031: Jalen Green pops off for 40 real points as the Rockets beat the Pelicans again.

eys819: Kawhi Leonard and Anfernee Simons combine for 110+ fantasy points.

TJ Zwarych: Anthony Davis scores 65+ fantasy points and an Orlando/LAL game stack wins tournaments.

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NOTE: Our analysts do their best to update their answers as news comes out throughout the day. For the most up-to-date picks and projections as lineup lock approaches, be sure to head to LineupHQ.

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