NBA DFS: Lessons Learned and Tips for Second Half Success

Article Image

The All-Star break is over, and we’re running short on time to accomplish our DFS goals for the NBA season. By now, we’ve learned a lot about the NBA teams as they currently exist. However, the closing third of the season will also present change.

We have to adapt, and this article is designed to separate the things we can learn from the season so far and those things we must continue to learn as the NBA winds down.

What We Can Learn

Bankroll Management: The game isn’t going to get any easier. The trend in the past has been that the games get tougher as the season gets older. This time of year is a great time to fire up the (unbelievably) free DFS Analyzer. No matter how much you play, there might be something you can learn about your skills that you didn’t know before. For instance: Have you been more successful at head-to-head or 50/50/Double-Ups? What entry-fee has yielded the most success/trouble? There are a lot of ways you can break down your play, but the point is that you should understand where you are most successful and attempt to allocate your bankroll accordingly. You don’t want to be losing edge as the margin for error gets smaller.

The Importance of Alerts/News: If you haven’t been keeping up with alerts, then you need to immediately get access here. The first half of the season saw numerous instances of a player being ruled out late in the day. Knowing this information as quickly as possible can make or break your evening. Even if you’re playing casually, the alerts app can be set to push you just the “urgent” alerts. Use this free and high caliber solution to ensure you don’t get caught flat-footed in the final third of the season.

Slate Selection, and Multi-Lineup Building: In the first half, we saw the NBA schedule move to a more evenly distributed format. There were fewer very short or very large slates than in years past. Knowing that the slates will continue to follow this trend, be sure you know what size slates suit your style best. Take stock of your play, and try to allocate your investments on days when the slate size is in your wheelhouse. For example, if you struggle on short slates, its OK to take the day off or reduce your play. On larger slates, you might want to be careful about how many lineups you build. With the news cycle moving fast and furious already, we can only expect AT LEAST as much chaos at the end of the year as we’ve seen thus far. In all likelihood, it will only get worse. Learn from the first half, and only enter the number of lineups you can comfortably adjust in a short time period. That may be the maximum, or it may be just one. Whatever the number, make sure you have a plan for when all hell breaks loose.

Team Identity/Performance Trends: The trade deadline has passed, and there are a number of teams that didn’t make any major changes to their roster. For those teams, we have a ton of valid data pertaining to team identity and performance trends. Some of the major identity data points I look at include team pace, play-type data (both offensive and defensive), rate stats (USG%, AST%, REB%, etc), and rotation/minutes trends. We can also rely on the existing information on player volatility to assess performance trends. Who has been consistent? Who is volatile? We now have a healthy sample of many players within their current environment, and we can use that to better assess their prospects for success. Use the existing information on team identity and trends to help make your roster decisions more precise.

Article Image

Accounting for Change

Trades: Many NBA players will change teams at the trade deadline, and the translation of performance from one team to the next may not be seamless. Some players may see substantial increases in minutes, touches, or other opportunities. Others will see the opposite occur, or may be sharing the court with another player who will be impacted by his arrival. Be ready to QUICKLY adjust your thinking on the players that change teams. The new situation will almost certainly have an impact on the traded player as well as his teammates. You will also want to pay attention to the teams that lost key players and didn’t receive an equal caliber replacement. The players that remain will undoubtedly be impacted in a significant way in terms of fantasy and reality.

Minutes Management: I looked over the minutes per game for Starters in March/April last year as compared to the first portion of the year. There were certainly some instances of major stars seeing a minute or two less per game than they had up to that point. That included stars like LeBron James, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love, Chris Paul, and Damian Lillard. This is far from scientific proof that minutes WILL be managed for these players or any others, but it should serve notice that minutes management will occur to varying degrees throughout the NBA during the final two months of the regular season. Pay attention to minutes played, and be ready to make adjustments quickly if the minutes start to decline. There is usually some kind of news that the reduction in minutes is planned. You always want to be aware of your players minutes projection, and knowing this potential for key players could help avoid being overly optimistic about their playing time.

Playoff Scenarios: All NBA players are out to make a living, and will certainly play hard with extremely limited exceptions. There isn’t a ton of validity to “motivation” based narratives. However, teams that are in a race for the playoffs often see a few scenarios that increase player performance outside the narrative of motivation. The rotation could get smaller, increasing the minutes for those remaining. Star players might play longer than usual. Usage rates could climb as offenses focus on getting their best players involved in crunch time. These are all realistic situations, which makes it a good reason to pay attention to the standings in the second half of the year.

Injury Situations: As per usual, there will always be the need to monitor injuries and understand their effect on team identity. Some changes in a player’s role are seamless, where the next man up comes in and plays the same way as the original starter. Others may impact the entire offense, and even require the team to run a different style of play altogether. When injuries occur in the second half, make sure you know how the new player might impact the team.

Developing Young Talent: In the same way that playoff teams may change their rotation and minutes to fit their situation, the same might be said for those with no hope for the playoffs. This scenario presents them the opportunity to get their emerging young talent on the court for development. Take a long look at the teams at the bottom of the standings, and begin identifying players who might get the chance to see an uptick in playing time. Teams in 2017 like the Suns, Lakers, Kings, and Nets could have some added incentive to test their young talent for future viability. Stay vigilant in search of these situations.

About the Author

ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino (ChrisGimino)

Chris Gimino is a top mind in the industry and one of the primary contributors at RotoGrinders. Together with our team of experts, his work is powering projections, simulations, ownership, and analytics across 10+ sports for betting, DFS, and fantasy pick’em contests. A multiple-time Live Finalist and shipper of 6-figure wins, Chris delivers actionable tools and advice for RotoGrinders Premium subscribers. Follow Chris on Twitter – @ChrisGimino