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  • Jimmy Nelson

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Jimmy Nelson leads Wednesday's early slate with a 26.9% K% this year

    Despite being priced under Gerrit Cole by $1.9k on DraftKings and $400 on FanDuel, Nelson projects as our top starting pitching this afternoon by a comfortable margin. Pittsburgh's starting lineup has a combined .126 ISO - only one batter tops .156 - and .311 wOBA against RHP this season. As a result, they have the lowest project run total (4.03). Although this seems to be a safe matchup, the upside may be somewhat limited as the Pirates have a combined strikeout rate of just 16.8%. Plus, they're rolling out six righty bats and Nelson's k-rate dips to 22.5% against RHB. Even so, that rate would be good for second among all starters in the six early games (Nick Pivetta has a 22.9% K%) and the rest of his numbers against right-handers (306 TBF) are solid: .303 wOBA, 28.5% Soft%, 26.2% Hard%, 55.6% GB%, 25.0% FB%, .113 ISO. Cole may have a better strikeout matchup against Nelson's Brewers as they have a pitcher-friendly 23.1% K%, but his strikeout rate is only 21.4% and Nelson's 11.5% SwStr% is 2.8% higher than Cole's. With the lack of pitching talent this afternoon, Nelson appears to be the top choice, despite the limited strikeout potential.

    Other tagged players: Gerrit Cole

    By: bryanpauquette
    Bryan Pauquette

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 38.64 proj
    • 4.29 pt/$
    • $9,000
    • 23.38 proj
    • 2.36 pt/$
    • $9,900
  • Edwin Encarnacion

    Cleveland Indians

    Wednesday's early slate clear of weather concerns; CLE-MIN game (ORANGE) could be trouble tonight

    Three of the six afternoon games will be played in a dome and the others aren't at risk of delay or PPD. The most favorable hitting conditions will be at Nationals Park where it's expected to be 86 degrees at fist pitch with plenty of humidity. This evening, we're expecting a slow-moving storm to head towards Minneapolis and it could cause some problems for the Indians-Twins matchup. We're currently considering it ORANGE but it may take a downgrade this afternoon; this game is risky. DET-TEX (GREEN/YELLOW) and ATL-COL (YELLOW) are the other two spots to monitor today, although both should be fine. Be sure to check back this afternoon for Roth's updates.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Weather

    By: bryanpauquette
    Bryan Pauquette

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 12.06 proj
    • 3.17 pt/$
    • $3,800
    • 9.43 proj
    • 1.78 pt/$
    • $5,300
  • Wil Myers

    San Diego Padres

    Nick Pivetta allowing a .417 wOBA to RHB this season

    The Phillies' starter has faced 203 righties in 2017 and his numbers have been poor: 45.0% Hard%, 43.8% FB%, and .353 ISO. The right-handed pitcher has displayed some drastic reverse splits as his profile against LHB (182 TBF) looks much better: .308 wOBA, 30.8% Hard%, 39.3% FB%, .135 ISO. Currently, the Padres are projected to start five righty bats, four of whom have ISOs between .183 and .251 against RHP this year - Jose Pirela (.234 ISO, 35.0% FB%, 33.6% Hard%), Wil Myers (.218 ISO, 45.2% FB%, 37.1% Hard%), Hunter Renfroe (.183 ISO, 41.2% FB%, 33.5% Hard%), and Austin Hedges (.251 ISO, 47.6% FB%, 33.6% Hard%). San Diego's projected run total is fifth on the early slate (4.79), which may drive down the ownership of the Padres' righties, making them appealing tournament options. Be sure to check official lineups when they're released.

    Other tagged players: Austin Hedges, Jose Pirela, Hunter Renfroe, Nicholas Pivetta

    By: bryanpauquette
    Bryan Pauquette

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 10.51 proj
    • 3.09 pt/$
    • $3,400
    • 7.97 proj
    • 1.90 pt/$
    • $4,200
  • Nolan Arenado

    Colorado Rockies

    Significant run line movement for both teams at Coors tonight

    The Colorado Rockies were already the top projected offense by Vegas when the afternoon began, but they've also now made the biggest upward jump over the course of the day, from 6.22 runs now up to 6.61 (+0.39 runs), while the Braves have made a corresponding drop from 5.28 implied runs to 4.89 currently (-0.39 runs). Might the return of Nolan Arenado to the Colorado lineup be responsible for part of that? The Chicago Cubs are another big mover, up from 4.5 to 4.8 runs, while the Reds have dropped from 3.7 to 3.5 implied runs in that game. Kevin's evening forecast has the wind blowing in at 10 to 15 mph from center. The St Louis Cardinals are the other significant mover on the slate, going in the wrong direction against Rick Porcello in Boston (4.61 to 4.23 runs). Players can find implied run lines and movement for all teams throughout the day on the Vegas Odds page.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: Rick Porcello

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 12.54 proj
    • 2.73 pt/$
    • $4,600
    • 9.75 proj
    • 1.84 pt/$
    • $5,300
  • Orlando Arcia

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Orlando Arcia scratched Tuesday; Eric Sogard will now bat 8th and play SS

    Arcia has been scratched from Tuesday's lineup due to back spasms, and it's unclear at this point if it's anything that'll keep him out of the lineup in the days to come. Sogard and Jonathan Villar will likely pick up the slack at shortstop until Arcia is able to return.

    As reported by @Brewers Other tagged players: Eric Sogard

    By: SBK
    Stephen Keech

    • mlb
    • injury
    • breaking-news
    • 7.41 proj
    • 2.65 pt/$
    • $2,800
    • 5.52 proj
    • 1.62 pt/$
    • $3,400
  • Corey Seager

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    A pair of middle infielders outside Coors (Corey Seager, Jason Kipnis) could be most popular tonight

    A pair of middle infielders with strong matchups outside of Coors (Corey Seager, Jason Kipnis) have the highest batter ownership projections on either site tonight with nobody currently owning an expectation above 20%. While both Coors teams are projected near the top of the run line board by Vegas, neither lefty on the mound in that game allows a lot of hard contact in the air. That could be one factor moving players in other directions tonight. Others could be an abundance of high priced pitching and the fact that two of the top three hitters in that game are left-handed. Danny Salazar could be in a quarter of FanDuel lineups where pitchers are priced more closely together. His $2.7K higher price tag on DraftKings may lean players more in the directions of Alex Wood ($9.6K) or Dinelson Lamet ($8.5K), who are expected to be more popular than higher priced pitchers. Jacob deGrom is in a tough spot in Yankee Stadium, but the highest strikeout (29.2%) and swinging strike rate (13.9%) on the board among qualified pitchers could potentially go under-owned, projected for less than 10% ownership on either site. Projected ownership rates are updated throughout the day and are available to premium players on the Projected Ownership page.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Jason Kipnis, Danny Salazar, Alex Wood, Dinelson Lamet, Jacob deGrom

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 9 proj
    • 2.50 pt/$
    • $3,600
    • 6.87 proj
    • 1.60 pt/$
    • $4,300
  • Jacob deGrom

    New York Mets

    Despite tough spot, Jacob deGrom still ranks second in SwStr% (13.8%) and SIERA (3.44) among SP on Tuesday's slate

    Jacob deGrom will take the mound tonight on the road against the New York Yankees in search of another outing with at least eight or more strikeouts, which would give him six such starts in his last seven contests. deGrom has continued to look like his old self throughout this entire season, but more specifically in the strikeout department. In his first two seasons in the Majors, he notched a 25.5% strikeout rate and 11.8% swinging strike rate in 2014 followed by a 27.3% strikeout rate and 12.7% swinging strike rate two years ago, meaning that he has seemingly reverted back to the consistent strikeout pitcher that's he had been for the early stages of his career this season. These statistics just further suggest that last year's dip in strikeouts was likely the anomaly of the sample set considering deGrom's 29.2% strikeout rate and 13.8% swinging strike rate through 23 starts would both set new career-highs and are at least somewhat within the range of his 2015 numbers. Still, some daily fantasy players may scoff at utilizing deGrom on Tuesday's main slate considering the difficult matchup he draws on paper against a powerful New York Yankees squad that ranks 2nd in wRC+ (113), 2nd in wOBA (.341), and 8th in ISO (.189) versus right-handed pitching. The Yankees do, however, strike out at a 22.7% clip that is good for tenth-highest in the Majors, meaning that this matchup is not necessarily a downgrade from a strikeout perspective for deGrom, even though the risk from a run prevention standpoint is certainly more elevated than normal. Despite the difficult matchup, deGrom has an elite enough pitching profile to combat New York's big-time right-handed bats (27.0% K-BB% vs RHB) that he should be able to neutralize some, if not, all of their power and on base abilities against right-handed pitching and work his way through to a good outing. Though, this spot is still far from safe, deGrom arguably still possesses the highest upside among starting pitching options on tonight's slate, even at his high price point. This does look to be one of those situations where the reward still outweighs the risk in large-field tournaments, and deGrom remains one of the pitchers with the highest likelihood to post a tournament winning score across the industry this evening.

    As reported by FanGraphs

    By: breves228
    Bob Reeves

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
  • Charlie Blackmon

    Colorado Rockies

    Atlanta @ Colorado the only full YELLOW grade in tonight's forecast

    The only game with a modicum of concern in Kevin's late forecast is in Colorado tonight. It's given the only full YELLOW grade, though major issues are not currently expected between the Braves and the Rockies. Kevin points out a few other games where rain shouldn't impact play along with the wind blowing in at Wrigley, which could make Kyle Hendricks or Luis Castillo more attractive. Players can read the full report on the Weather page and catch Kevin after 6pm ET in Expert Chat for updates.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Expert Chat Other tagged players: Kyle Hendricks, Luis Castillo

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • breaking-news
    • general-strategy
    • 14.93 proj
    • 2.87 pt/$
    • $5,200
    • 11.61 proj
    • 2.04 pt/$
    • $5,700
  • Nolan Arenado

    Colorado Rockies

    Nolan Arenado (206 wRC+, .411 ISO vs LHP this year) is tonight's top projected batter

    Nolan Arenado is tonight's top projected batter (RotoGrinders Player Projections) at home against a lefty. He has a 206 wRC+ and .411 ISO against LHP this year with a 49.5% fly ball rate and 35.4 Hard%. Sean Newcomb has allowed RHBs just a .312 wOBA and 27.4 Hard%, his largest flaw, a 14.3 BB% with the platoon disadvantage. Cody Bellinger is the best projected bat in a great spot at home against a contact prone fly ball pitcher (Miguel Gonzalez). Nelson Cruz rounds out the top three. He has a 283 wRC+ with five HRs over the last week and faces Wade Miley. Charlie Blackmon makes it a pair of Rockies in the top 10, while Cleveland has quite a few batters projected highly (Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Jay Bruce, Francisco Lindor) against Bartolo Colon. Among those projected for at least seven points on either site, projections see another Tribe bat, Jason Kipnis, as the top value (2.68 Pt/$/K on FD, 4.08 Pt/$/K on DK). Kipnis hasn't looked himself this season (74 wRC+, .164 ISO vs RHP) as he's dealt with injuries. LHBs have a 41.9 Hard% and 36.4 GB% against Colon this season.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Cody Bellinger, Nelson Cruz, Charlie Blackmon, Edwin Encarnacion, Jose Ramirez, Jay Bruce, Francisco Lindor, Jason Kipnis

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 12.54 proj
    • 2.73 pt/$
    • $4,600
    • 9.75 proj
    • 1.84 pt/$
    • $5,300
  • Danny Salazar

    Cleveland Indians

    Danny Salazar has struck out 36 of 97 with a 19.2 Hard% since returning from the DL

    Danny Salazar has the top strikeout projection from the Daily K Predictor tonight (8.55). He's been on fire since returning from the DL, striking out 36 of 97 batters with at least eight in each of his four starts with a 19.2 Hard% too. His 16.6 SwStr% for the season is best among pitchers with at least 80 innings. He's in Minnesota tonight, against a Twins' offense with a 155 wRC+, 15.1 K% and 26 Hard-Soft% over the last week though. Alex Wood and Madison Bumgarner are tonight's top projected pitchers. While Bumgarner is rounding into form after a shoulder injury with seven innings in three straight with exactly seven strikeouts in each, Wood has seen some disturbing trends with a total of 19 strikeouts over his last five starts and a sub-50 GB% in each of his last four. He had a 45% hard hit rate last time out, but at least his swinging strike rate rebounded to 14.8%. For the season, his 24.8 95+ mph aEV is still best on the board, his 57.5 GB% is fourth among those with at least 110 innings pitched, his 19.5 K-BB% is 15th. He's in a favorable spot against the White Sox, who lose a DH from an already weak lineup. Jacob deGrom doesn't have an ideal matchup at Yankee Stadium (19.3 HR/FB at home, but 22.7 K% vs RHP). However, his 29.2 K% and 13.9 SwStr% are tops on the board among qualified pitchers tonight. Dinelson Lamet has seen his strikeout rate drop off slightly (26.3 K% over the last month), while walks have increased, but there's been a major improvement in contact management (-5.6 Hard-Soft% last three starts). He’s also in one of the top spots on the slate, hosting the Phillies (15.5 K-BB% vs RHP, 9.9 HR/FB on the road, 2.8 Hard-Soft% last seven days). Mark Leiter is on the other side of that matchup and has made himself very interesting over his last two outings. Neither were starts, but in long relief, he's struck out 16 or 34 Mets and Rockies with increased use of his splitter. He costs less than $7K against the Padres (25.2 K% vs RHP) in San Diego. There's potential for a quality start with several strikeouts, which would allow players to afford most of their desired bats.

    As reported by RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Alex Wood, Madison Bumgarner, Jacob deGrom, Dinelson Lamet, Mark Leiter Jr.

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
  • Jay Bruce

    Cleveland Indians

    Bartolo Colon has surrendered a 44.3% HH% in five starts with Minnesota

    Bartolo Colon currently finds himself in the midst of a stretch since signing with the Minnesota Twins where he hasn't been completely horrible. In fact, he's managed to "limit" his opponents to four earned runs or less in four of those last five starts, and somehow was able to cap it off with seven shutout innings against the Milwaukee Brewers his last time out. He'll take the mound tonight for the sixth time as a member of the Twins rotation against a competent Cleveland Indians lineup that ranks 6th in wRC+ (103) and 7th in wOBA (.328) against right-handed pitching, putting them in the perfect position to take advantage of a fastball pitcher like Colon that struggles striking hitters out (13.5% K%) from both sides of the plate. Although, on the year, Colon has been substantially worse against left-handed batters, evidenced by a 43.2% fly ball rate and 41.9% hard hit rate compared to a more respectable 50.3% groundball rate and 31.3% hard hit rate versus righties. Fortunately, this Indians squad has a decent ability to go left-handed, as Edwin Encarnacion, Austin Jackson, and Yan Gomes are the only righties that cracked Cleveland's lineup this evening. Meaning, that Jay Bruce (133 wRC+, .372 wOBA, .266 ISO vs RHP), Jose Ramirez (146 wRC+, .391 wOBA, .247 ISO vs RHP), and Carlos Santana (116 wRC+, .348 wOBA, .196 ISO vs RHP) are the prime options from this Indians lineup given their plate skills against southpaws, while Francisco Lindor (.194 ISO vs RHP) and Bradley Zimmer (.184 ISO vs RHP) are clearly a tier below the aforementioned players. With that said, Colon isn't immune to right-handed batters by any means, but he certainly does have a better ability to control batted ball outcomes on a more consistent basis, which makes guys like Encarnacion (128 wRC+, .365 wOBA, .259 ISO vs RHP) more effective as a tournament option than core pieces to a cash game lineup.

    As reported by FanGraphs Other tagged players: Jose Ramirez, Carlos Santana, Francisco Lindor, Bradley Zimmer, Edwin Encarnacion, Bartolo Colon

    By: breves228
    Bob Reeves

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 10.51 proj
    • 3.18 pt/$
    • $3,300
    • 8.23 proj
    • 1.79 pt/$
    • $4,600
  • Giancarlo Stanton

    Miami Marlins

    Giancarlo Stanton is one of four batters with a 270+ wRC+ and four plus HRs last seven days

    Kris Bryant (329 wRC+, 33.3 Hard%, two HRs) has the highest wRC+ over the last week by a wide margin (10 PA min.), though a lot of it has to do with his 7.1 K% more than superior contact authority. He's at home tonight against fire-baller Luis Castillo, against whom RHBs have a .331 wOBA, but 61.3 GB% and 29.3 Hard%. Eddie Rosario (304 wRC+, 54.6 Hard%, four HRs) is the only other batter in the league with a wRC+ above 300 over the last seven days. LHBs have a 33.9 Hard% against Danny Salazar since last season, but he's struck out 36 of 97 batters since returning from the DL. Nelson Cruz (283 wRC+, 52.9 Hard%, five HRs) tees off against Wade Miley (RHBs .363 wOBA, 33 Hard% since 2016). Josh Donaldson (282 wRC+, 40.9 Hard%, four HRs) faces Blake Snell (RHBs .341 wOBA, 32.4 Hard%, 36.8 GB% career). Giancarlo Stanton (270 wRC+, 57.9 Hard%, six HRs) has just the seventh highest wRC+ over the last week, but nobody has as many HRs. If the Marlins have played a game over the last month, Stanton has more likely than not gone deep. Madison Bumgarner has been more like himself recently (seven IP with seven Ks in three straight starts) and RHBs have just a .262 wOBA against him this year, but with a 35.7 Hard% and 41.1 GB%.

    Other tagged players: Kris Bryant, Eddie Rosario, Nelson Cruz, Josh Donaldson

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 15.8 proj
    • 3.16 pt/$
    • $5,000
    • 12.17 proj
    • 2.10 pt/$
    • $5,800
  • Eric Thames

    Milwaukee Brewers

    Ivan Nova has allowed 17 HRs over his last 12 starts with a .418 wOBA against LHBs

    While the Brewers are projected for 4.64 runs by Vegas, right in the middle of tonight's board, their LHBs might have one of the top matchups on the slate when they host Ivan Nova and the Pirates tonight. While Nova has increased his strikeout rate in recent starts, even to league average over the last month, he's allowed a total of 17 HRs over his last 12 starts. Ten of those have gone to LHBs, who have a .418 wOBA against him over that span with a 40.2 GB% and 20.4 Hard-Soft%. It's not like Nova has been dominating RHBs over this stretch either (.364 wOBA, seven HRs, 47.6 GB%, 35.4 Hard%), but he does have a 20.6 K% against them. Eric Thames (137 wRC+, .284 ISO vs RHP), Travis Shaw (143 wRC+, .270 ISO vs RHP) and Neil Walker (125 wRC+, .207 ISO vs RHP) are your top LH bats and all have a 120+ wRC+ over the last week. Ryan Braun (128 wRC+, .251 ISO vs RHP this year) is certainly the bat to consider for stacks. He has a 242 wRC+ and 52.4 Hard% over the last week.

    Other tagged players: Travis Shaw, Neil Walker, Ivan Nova, Ryan Braun

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 10.62 proj
    • 3.12 pt/$
    • $3,400
    • 8.31 proj
    • 1.85 pt/$
    • $4,500
  • Cody Bellinger

    Los Angeles Dodgers

    Dodgers (5.84 implied runs) face a RHP with a 12.7 K%, 39.4 GB% and 87.8 mph aEV

    In addition to both teams at Coors, eight more lineups are projected for 4.8 runs or better by Vegas tonight. That's a bit over one-third of the board on a 14 game slate in total, but aside from the Rockies, the Dodgers (5.84) are the only other team above 5.4 runs. They host the White Sox and Miguel Gonzalez, who has allowed just 16 HRs, but he has just a 12.7 K% with a 39.4 GB% with an 87.8 mph aEV. That sounds like a feast for not only Cody Bellinger (159 wRC+, .386 ISO vs RHP) and Corey Seager (134 wRC+, .197 ISO), but for the rest of the Dodger lineup as well since Gonzalez exhibits virtually no platoon split. Joc Pederson (112 wRC+, .227 ISO) could be the most polarizing bat in the lineup. He has a -44 wRC+ and 21.4 Hard% over the last week. He's a prime candidate for popups if not strike outs tonight, but is also plenty capable of running into one if Gonazlez refuses to miss his bat.

    Other tagged players: Corey Seager, Joc Pederson, Miguel Gonzalez

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 9.56 proj
    • 2.33 pt/$
    • $4,100
    • 7.3 proj
    • 1.40 pt/$
    • $5,200
  • Charlie Blackmon

    Colorado Rockies

    Both Charlie Blackmon & Freddie Freeman have a .250+ ISO vs LHP this year

    The Rockies are once again implied for the highest total on the board (6.22), although why an offense with just an 88 wRC+ at home, 96 wRC+ vs LHP and potentially without Nolan Arenado again is consistently projected above six runs is perplexing, as they are generally not a much better offense than the visiting team. Atlanta has a 91 wRC+ on the road and 99 wRC+ vs LHP, but are implied for an entire run less (5.28), though without their top RH bat as well. The most interesting aspect of this game might be the desirability of both team's top bats, both left-handed against left-handed pitchers tonight. Charlie Blackmon (142 wRC+, .260 ISO) and Freddie Freeman (116 wRC+, .250 ISO) have both hit LHP well this year. LHBs have a .358 wOBA against Sean Newcomb, but that appears to be mostly BABIP luck related (.383) considering a 39.1 LD% on just a 29.2% hard hit rate with one HR. Pitchers generally don't see their BABIP improve at Coors, but you generally don't see line drive rates higher than hard hit rates either. Overall, batters from both side do have an 87.7 mph aEV against Newcomb according to Statcast though, and that is a bit high. Kyle Freeland has some unique splits. He has a 56.1 GB%, which is a necessity with just a 14.6 K%. However, 108 LHBs have a 26.9 K% against him with just a 36.1 GB% (RHBs 60.6%) and higher hard hit rate (32.9% to 28.6%). Depending on what projected ownership rates suggest later, these two premier lefty bats are certainly worth exposure if it appears they might go under-owned against a same-handed pitcher at a high cost. Despite the ability to smother RH contact into the ground, Kurt Suzuki looks like an interesting option for those who want Coors exposure at a lower cost. He has a 127 wRC+ and .257 ISO vs LHP since last season with a 47.9% fly ball rate.

    Other tagged players: Freddie Freeman, Kurt Suzuki, Kyle Freeland, Sean Newcomb

    By: MTro86
    Matt Trollo

    • mlb
    • general-strategy
    • 14.93 proj
    • 2.87 pt/$
    • $5,200
    • 11.61 proj
    • 2.04 pt/$
    • $5,700

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