This year's U.S. Open allowed Justin Thomas to experience his first taste of playing near the lead in a major championship. A spectacular third round of 63 put Thomas in the final pairing on Sunday. It's always hard to follow up a great round like 63 with another low round, and it's even harder to do so in a major championship. Thomas struggled to find any form on Sunday, and by the back nine, he was in the unenviable spot of falling out of contention. The major championship hangover carried over to the next week, and Thomas played poorly while missing the cut at The Travelers Championship. This very talented young golfer looks to rebound at this week's Quicken Loans Invitational. The 12th ranked player has proven he has the game to win on tour, and he is in a great bounce back spot. The lack of great talent in this week's field should prevent people from jumping off the Thomas bandwagon, and he still projects to be a very high owned player.
Toronto is now the top projected offense tonight on our Vegas Odds page, which has them at 5.76 runs. They were just below Houston and Boston earlier this afternoon. The Red Sox have dropped off just over one-tenth of a run since early afternoon, while the Astros now sit third at 5.34 implied runs. They were at 5.74 just a few hours ago. The Yankees are another big dropper after a lineup was released without several regulars. They've dropped from 4.81 runs to 4.65.As reported by RotoGrinders Vegas Odds
Mookie Betts is the only batter currently projected to be in more than than 20% of lineups on FanDuel tonight, as he costs less than $4K for the offense with the second highest implied run line tonight. On DraftKings, Josh Donaldson and Miguel Cabrera share that honor, both of their teams with top four implied run lines tonight as well. The top contrarian score there goes to Adrian Beltre (1% projection). He has a 125 wRC+, .218 ISO vs RHP since last season and faces an erratic righty in Trevor Bauer. Wil Myers captures the top contrarian score on DraftKings, facing the returning Bartolo Colon. On the pitching side, Stephen Strasburg is currently projected to be in two to three times more lineups than any other pitcher depending on the site. Of course, this makes almost everyone else a contrarian play, especially on FanDuel, where nobody is expected to be in much more than 10% of lineups.As reported by RotoGrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Mookie Betts, Josh Donaldson, Miguel Cabrera, Adrian Beltre, Wil Myers
Kevin currently has the Yankees @ White Sox game graded YELLOW/ORANGE, but his forecast projects a window between a possible late start and potential late game weather activity in which to get this game in. That's great news for Masahiro Tanaka backers, but players will definitely need to be cautious and stay up to date with Kevin on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for further updates. There could be some light rain around Detroit (vs Kansas City) as well, but it's not expected to impact the game. Players can read the full forecast on the Weather page.As reported by RotoGrinders Weather Page
This year's Quicken Loans Invitational will move to the TPC Potomac at Avenel Farms. For many years the TPC Avenel played host to the now extinct Kemper/Booz Allen golf tournament. Due to the lack of player approval and overall poor course design, the TPC Avenel hosted its last PGA Tour event in 2006. The newly renovated TPC Avenel course reopened in 2008 and soon regained its status as course capable of hosting a tour event. Since the time of the renovation the Web.com and Champions tours have played events at this course, and now it’s time for the PGA Tour to return. David Lingmerth is one of the few players to have any familiarity with the TPC Avenel. Lingmerth won The Neediest Kids Championship in 2012, so he should have good memories as he tee's up in this week's event. Lingmerth's one career PGA Tour victory came at the 2015 Memorial tournament. Like many other first-time PGA Tour winners, Lingmerth experienced a small slump in his game. Downswings should not last forever, and Lingmerth appears to have found a bit of good recent form. Lingmerth has posted top 30 or better finishes in five out of his last six tournaments, and he looks to be in good spot prior to this week's tournament.
After his start on May 21st, Chase Anderson had a 4.25 ERA with a 36.4 Hard% and estimators above four as well with an xFIP nearly reaching five. In six starts since then he has a 23.8 K-BB%, 1.33 ERA, 2.72 FIP and 3.56 xFIP. A significant reverse platoon pitcher (RHBs .363 wOBA, 37.4 Hard% since last year). Over those last six starts though, RHBs have just a .221 wOBA as he's held his K-BB% against batters from either side, increasing his GB rate to 47.7% vs same handed batters, though the hard hit rate still remains high (34.1%). Brooks Baseball seems to indicate that he's cut down on his change-up and four-seam usage against RHBs in June, in favor of cutters, which has a 20.41 SwStr% and 71.43 GB% against them this month. That's one heck of a pitch. If we look at the past two seasons on PlateIQ though, the cutter is a pitch that RHBs Adam Duvall (107 wRC+, .244 ISO vs RHP this year) and Eugenio Suarez (91 wRC+, .158 ISO vs RHP) have both handled well, at least in terms of having a higher than league average Hit% against the pitch. In a home park that greatly favors power hitters, both are still a threat to leave the yard and perhaps still in play against Anderson tonight, whose cost now exceeds $9K.As reported by RotoGrinders PlateIQ Other tagged players: Adam Duvall, Eugenio Suarez
Arizona is the only offense with two batters in the top five overall (top six on DraftKings) among the RotoGrinders Players Projections. Both Paul Goldschmidt and Jake Lamb stand a good chance of being among top scorers at home tonight against Adam Wainwright, who has allowed a .350+ wOBA to batters from both sides this year. Jose Bautista and Justin Smoak (180 wRC+, .233 ISO vs LHP this year) both project strongly against Wade Miley, who has sacrificed strikeouts for ground balls lately. RHBs have a .358 wOBA against him since last season, but Bautista has just a 35 wRC+ and .063 ISO against LHP this year. Mookie Betts (111 wRC+, .254 ISO vs LHP since 2016) is the top overall projected bat against Adalberto Mejia (RHBs .349 wOBA, 37.1 Hard%). On FanDuel, a minimum priced Max Moroff in the leadoff spot for Pittsburgh against Blake Snell projects at the top potential value (3.88 Pt/$/K), followed by a trio of Boston bats below $3K (Chris Young, Dustin Pedroia, Sam Travis). Pedroia and Travis also share top value honors on DraftKings at just below 2.5 Pt/$/K, followed closely by Jose Bautista (2.47 Pt/$/K).As reported by RotoGrinders Player Projections Other tagged players: Dustin Pedroia, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Jose Bautista, Justin Smoak, Sam Travis, Chris Young, Maxwell Moroff
Yu Darvish is the only pitcher projected above seven Ks (7.14) from the Daily K Predictor today. He's followed fairly closely by Masahiro Tanaka (6.95), Stephen Strasburg (6.77) and even Rick Porcello (6.68) before dropping off. RotoGrinders Player Projections like Strasburg then Tanaka, followed by Chase Anderson and Marcus Stroman before Yu Darvish grouped closely together. Darvish struck out 10 Yankees without a walk in his last start and has a 30.6 K% for the last month, widening his K-BB to 18% on the season. He's not in the greatest spot in Cleveland tonight, but perhaps he's finally getting it going after a sub-standard start to the season. Strasburg has struck out just 10 of his last 50 batters and allowed at least five runs in two of his last three starts. You take the good with the bad with him, but his 20.7 K-BB% is a top 10 mark among qualifiers. Masahiro Tanaka did not allow a run in his last start, but four HRs in his previous two, so that issue may not be solved, but 27 strikeouts (76 batters) over his last three starts, players should be more willing to accept the risk at a cost below $9K, especially against the White Sox (83 wRC+ vs RHP). Marcus Stroman has just a league average strikeout rate with a 60.3 GB%. He does have a SwStr rate above 13% in three straight starts though and face a Baltimore offense with a 15.8 K-BB% vs RHP and 83 sOPS+ vs ground ball pitchers. Chase Anderson is up to a 23.3 K% (10.6 SwStr%) on the season, but his 2.92 ERA is suppressed by a 7.9 HR/FB (4.17 SIERA), even with three HRs allowed over his last two starts. He has been exceptional with contact management this season according to Statcast, (84.2 mph aEV, 4.1% Barrels/BBE, 26.1% 95+ mph EV) but now costs more than $9K. Zack Godley is another pitcher to watch. He has struck out 16 of his last 50 batters and has a SwStr rate above 11% in eight of nine starts overall with a 59.9 GB%. He gets a bit of a penalty for the park in Arizona against an average St Louis offense (98 wRC+ vs RHP).As reported by RotoGrinders Daily K Predictor Other tagged players: Stephen Strasburg, Masahiro Tanaka, Marcus Stroman, Chase Anderson, Zachary Godley
Brian Dozier is one of three batters with three HRs against the pitcher they are facing tonight. In 40 PAs against Rick Porcello, who has been having HR issues recently, Dozier has struck out just four times with just one other extra-base hit. Ten BBEs have been recorded by Statcast with a 90 mph aEV. Edwin Encarnacion has also homered three times against Yu Darvish (26 PAs), but with a more average 87.8 mph aEV on just five recorded BBEs. Evan Longoria has taken Ivan Nova deep three times in 42 PAs, but those were likely all during his Yankee days and Pittsburgh is a different kind of park to RHBs. Three BBEs have been recorded with a 100 mph aEV. Among those with at least 10 Statcast recorded BBEs, Mark Trumbo has the highest aEV (95 mph, 12 BBEs) against Marcus Stroman with a HR and two doubles in 15 PAs. Ian Kinsler has four doubles and a HR in 16 PAs against Ian Kennedy (96.3 mph aEV, seven BBEs). The one interesting thing players may notice is that these are all RHBs against RHPs.As reported by Baseball Savant Matchups Other tagged players: Edwin Encarnacion, Evan Longoria, Mark Trumbo, Ian Kinsler
Robinson Chirinos doesn't play every day, but perhaps he should for a while. He was in the lineup last night and homered. He now has a 482 wRC+, 83.3 Hard% and three HRs in 11 PAs over the last week. He faces the erratic Trevor Bauer tonight (RHBs .292 wOBA, 31.1 Hard% since last season) in a run friendly environment in Cleveland at a low cost. Michael Taylor (331 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, three HRs) and Josh Reddick (326 wRC+, 50 Hard%, two HRs) are the only other two batters in the league with a wRC+ above 300 over the last week (10 PA min.). Taylor's emergence has been a real surprise and he lacks much value out of the eighth spot in the order, but John Lackey has no real platoon split anymore and has been and ERA with estimators well above four. Reddick is sure to be popular as an affordable bat near the top of the order for one of the top projected offenses tonight against Jesse Hahn (LHBs .385 wOBA since last season). Two more bats to consider are Curtis Granderson (277 wRC+, 57.1 Hard%, four HRs), who has been back in the leadoff spot on occasion and has hit LHP sufficiently (97 wRC+, .193 ISO since last season). Jeff Locke has allowed LHBs a .338 wOBA since last season. Joc Pederson (275 wRC+, 46.2 Hard%, three HRs) gets Alex Meyer, who can miss bats, but also walks a ton of batters and has allowed a .353 wOBA (35.2 Hard%) to LHBs since last year.Other tagged players: Josh Reddick, Robinson Chirinos, Curtis Granderson, Joc Pederson
Only five teams on a 13 game slate have an implied run line higher than 4.9 runs, though only two teams are currently below four and nobody lower than 3.7 runs. Three offenses (Houston, Boston, and Toronto) have an implied run line between 4.65 and 4.75 and will likely see the highest rates of offensive ownership. Josh Reddick (135 wRC+, .187 ISO vs RHP) should be a very popular value play in the Houston lineup against a below average RHP (Jesse Hahn), who has allowed LHBs a .385 wOBA and 37.6 Hard% since last season. Aaron Judge (221 wRC+, .380 ISO vs LHP) will likely be in as many lineups as players can fit him into against Carlos Rodon (RHBs .342 wOBA last season) in his first start of the year. Just under five runs (4.97) are the Diamondbacks hosting Adam Wainwright. Batters from either side have a wOBA above .350 against him since last season, making Paul Goldschmidt (139 wRC+, .224 ISO vs RHP since 2016) and Jake Lamb (141 wRC+, .287 ISO vs RHP since 2016) great plays at any ownership rates. Although Tampa Bay is third from the bottom with just a 4.05 implied run line, consider that Ivan Nova has allowed a .321 wOBA to LHBs with just a 10.5 K% against them this year, giving Tampa Bay LHBs Corey Dickerson (155 wRC+, .269 ISO vs RHP this year) and Logan Morrison (151 wRC+, .349 ISO vs RHP this year) several chances to elevate and punish him. Both have a 150+ wRC+ and 50+ Hard% over the last week.Other tagged players: Aaron Judge, Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, Corey Dickerson, Logan Morrison
The Rotogrinders Projection ownerships have been updated and Brendan Steele is currently listed as the highest owned player. Steele is having the best season of his career. Propelled by his win at the Safeway Open, Steele is primed to make a deep run in this year's FedEx Cup race. Steele's steady play has quickly made him a fan favorite among the DFS community. In addition to not missing a cut ( individual events only), Steele has posted 8 top 20 or better DraftKings finishes. Steele has been one of the few golfers to regularly pay off his salary this season, and his very reasonable price for the Quicken Loans Invitational will make him one of the highest owned golfers of the week. Normally you can look to gain an edge by fading the highest owned golfer, but Steele offers too much upside at this price.As reported by RotoGrinders Projected Ownership
Tonight's MIN-BOS tilt will start in a delay due to rain. It still looks like this game should play, but we may deal with a non-negligible delay to kick things off, which is actually a better situation than if we were anticipating a mid-inning delay. Players from this game still carry some risk, especially pitchers, but it's not a situation to completely write off.As reported by Chris Smith
After opening at 6.13, the Boston implied run line reached a high of 6.29 this afternoon before dropping below six runs to 5.96 since the lineup was confirmed. It is still the highest line on the board by more than a quarter of a run over Cleveland and actually gives players more affordable ways of accessing the top projected offense. Detroit has also seen a significant drop from 5.11 to 4.98 after posting a different lineup that moves Mikie Mahtook and Justin Upton up, while shifting J.D.Martinez down a spot. Arizona has seen some interesting movement the other way after opening at 4.31 implied runs and slowly dropping throughout the day to 4.06 runs, they've since moved back up to 4.31 within the last couple of hours. Players can see current lines and movement for all games using the Vegas Odds pageAs reported by RotoGrinders Vegas Odds Other tagged players: J.D. Martinez, Mikie Mahtook, Justin Upton
The Toronto Bash Brothers, Jose Bautista and Josh Donaldson, project to be the most popular bats on DraftKings. Each are affordably right around $4K against Kevin Gausman. RHBs have a .373 wOBA against him since last year. The Red Sox have the evening's highest implied run line, the only team above six runs, and the top half of that order (Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, and Chris Young) are projected to be the most popular bats on FanDuel. Mark Reynolds, who has three career HRs against Matt Cain, currently has the top Contrarian Rating on either site and is expected to have minimal ownership rates on either site. Max Scherzer is the easy pick to be in the most lineups on the mound tonight. Jose Quintana has been pitching well lately, but is not expected to be in many lineups even against a weakened Yankee lineup. Ownership projections are updated throughout the day and are available for premium subscribers on the Projected Ownership page.As reported by Rotogrinders Projected Ownership Other tagged players: Josh Donaldson, Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts, Chris Young, Mark Reynolds, Max Scherzer, Jose Quintana
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