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Mac Jones
New England Patriots
Mac Jones 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Mac Jones is expected to be the fantasy QB34. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB32 at pick 236, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 210 as of July. We currenty expect 2117 passing yards (Rank 32) and 12 passing touchdowns (Rank 34) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 98 yards rushing (Rank 30) with a 5% share of team rush attempts.
The description of his work ethic this offseason already rivals the kind of things you’ve always heard about Tom Brady, and the 4500 yards and 45 touchdowns against upper level college competition suggests he has a real chance to be a legitimate pocket passing QB in the league. The profile is a stark contrast to incumbent starter Cam Newton, who struggles more with his accuracy and passing ability (particularly in recent seasons). Without word of a clear starting role, you can’t bet the farm on a massive rookie season. You can, however, watch the news closely and know that any ascension to the starting role could mean serious fantasy production for both him and his most capable skill players.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Cam Newton
New England Patriots
Cam Newton 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Cam Newton is expected to be the fantasy QB32. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB31 at pick 219, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 208 as of July. We currenty expect 1924 passing yards (Rank 33) and 12 passing touchdowns (Rank 32) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 218 yards rushing (Rank 12) with a 11% share of team rush attempts.
He’s only projected for half the season right now, with Mac Jones nipping at his heels for playing time. There is no guarantee that Newton even starts the season at QB, let alone finishes it. That said, there is also a universe where a former MVP rises his level of play and turns back the clock to a more glorious time for his fantasy value. The weaponry is rather weak in the WR group, and there aren’t many who expect New England to be an uptempo, pass heavy team. If Cam is going to have a big season, it will have a lot to do with his aging legs. They rushed for a very nice 592 yards last season. If you roll dice late in a draft this year, then you’re basically asking him to run that back in addition to playing better in the pass game. That’s a noble gamble, but not one I’m currently excited about.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Kendrick Bourne
New England Patriots
Kendrick Bourne 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Kendrick Bourne is expected to be the fantasy WR84. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR107 at pick 239, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 176 as of July. We currently expect a 13% target share which amounts to a projection of 70 targets (Rank 84) and 533 receiving yards (Rank 81) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Bourne ran 444 routes a season ago and yielded just 4 deep targets from San Francisco’s rag tag crew of QBs. His average target distance was under 10 yards and he accumulated just 1.5 yards per route run. It’s hard to look at his profile and get excited, and based on ADP that seems to be how everyone feels. For what it’s worth the RG projections are above that ADP, but also at WR 84 he’s well out of draft consideration in the vast majority of formats.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
James White
New England Patriots
James White 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, James White is expected to be the fantasy RB49. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB49 at pick 172, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 172 as of July. We currently expect 137 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 75) with a 8% share of team carries. We also expect a 10% target share which amounts to a projection of 54 targets (Rank 20) and 369 receiving yards (Rank 17).
White has a fighting chance in PPR formats thanks to his expected continued use as a passing option out of the backfield, but the opportunity for him to ascend to a larger and more impactful role for fantasy is small. The Patriots have at least 3 backs on the roster that are more likely to serve as a primary runner and goal line option. This is before we even mention Cam Newton as a possible goal line threat as well. The bottom line is that he is fairly priced compared to projections, and his range of outcomes includes far fewer upside scenarios that most. He’s somebody you draft for floor, and not if you are needing a high ceiling.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Hunter Henry
New England Patriots
Hunter Henry 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Hunter Henry is expected to be the fantasy TE17. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE19 at pick 163, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 146 as of July. We currently expect a 13% target share which amounts to a projection of 71 targets (Rank 19) and 533 receiving yards (Rank 16) during the 17 week fantasy season.
The opportunity with the Chargers was certainly more substantial than the opportunity for Henry here in New England, but the kinetic energy he holds within his talent is primed to explode in any given game. In the unthinkable event of injury or other news, he could explode into the upper echelon of TEs with ease. As it stands, he’s part of a multi-TE attack with Jonnu Smith and will therefore have to share the wealth from a fantasy perspective. The RotoGrinders projection is still more bullish than the ADP, and that means you can probably target him in that general area as an upside only dart throw. There is a lot that can break right for him at this price.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Jakobi Meyers
New England Patriots
Jakobi Meyers 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Jakobi Meyers is expected to be the fantasy WR67. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR69 at pick 149, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 141 as of July. We currently expect a 16% target share which amounts to a projection of 86 targets (Rank 68) and 644 receiving yards (Rank 64) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Beat writers have said good things about Meyers all offseason, and he continues to outperform the expectations implied as an undrafted player. The arrival of some additional weapons will surely reduce his 37.5% share of air yards and 26.8% target rate from a season ago. Still, expecting him to be among the regulars in the passing game is still fair and you can target him for filler points if the price is right. In best ball, the run heavy/TE heavy nature of the New England offense limits his upside potential. Therefore, I would call drafting him in the area of his ADP a fairly boring decision.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Jonnu Smith
New England Patriots
Jonnu Smith 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Jonnu Smith is expected to be the fantasy TE13. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE17 at pick 150, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 137 as of July. We currently expect a 14% target share which amounts to a projection of 73 targets (Rank 14) and 553 receiving yards (Rank 13) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Whether it is the versatile and explosive Smith or the high pedigree downfield threat Hunter Henry, the Patriots passing game will heavily rely on the TE and should be expected to feature the position more than every other team in the league. Blessed with 94th percentile SPARQ athleticism and the ability to line up all over the formation, Jonnu will become a matchup problem in the Patriots offense. The 14% target share assigned reflects a heavy overall usage of the TE in the offense, and puts his draft value a pretty good distance ahead of his ADP. He’s a preferred 12th round plus lottery ticket at an ultra thin TE position.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Nelson Agholor
New England Patriots
Nelson Agholor 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Nelson Agholor is expected to be the fantasy WR51. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR62 at pick 131, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 110 as of July. We currently expect a 18% target share which amounts to a projection of 96 targets (Rank 55) and 821 receiving yards (Rank 45) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Who is the best WR on the Patriots? The fact that the answer is not crystal clear coupled with a fairly lucrative 16 million dollars in guaranteed money makes Agholor as likely as anyone to claim that title. Assigning the 28 year old even a paltry 18% target share puts him at a median fpts value that is 20 spots better than his ADP. If you factor in the what-ifs associated with Mac Jones (like… what if he’s really good?) and his explosive looking big plays from a season ago with the Raiders, he’s actually quite an attractive option at this price point. As for me? I like the stock.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Damien Harris
New England Patriots
Damien Harris 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Damien Harris is expected to be the fantasy RB22. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB28 at pick 84, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 71 as of July. We currently expect 1045 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 10) with a 50% share of team carries. We also expect a 4% target share which amounts to a projection of 21 targets (Rank 64) and 136 receiving yards (Rank 55).
Belichick has indicated that this is different situation for Harris this season, and the outright starting gig is on the table. That’s how the RotoGrinders projections view his 2021 season, suggesting that he is worthy of being drafted ahead of at least 5 other backs in his range. Without the aid of significant target share, he still looks like a respectable option in the .5 PPR Underdog scoring format. The Patriots presume to be a run heavy team that often operates with multiple TE formations. Especially if Mac Jones were to assume the starting QB role, Harris could be a major TD threat and easily beat his ADP implied expectation. He’s a bet-on-talent buy in my view.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Malcolm Brown
Miami Dolphins
Malcolm Brown 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Malcolm Brown is expected to be the fantasy RB55. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as RB61 at pick 215, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 187 as of July. We currently expect 409 yards rushing during the first 17 weeks (Rank 46) with a 23% share of team carries. We also expect a 1% target share which amounts to a projection of 9 targets (Rank 78) and 49 receiving yards (Rank 79).
Many people would be surprised to learn the kind of role Brown had with the Rams passing attack last season, mostly because he never converted it into fantasy production. He racked up just 162 yards and 5 drops (#6 overall among backs) despite 261 routes run and 33 snaps lined up in a slot position. Our projections paint a picture of Brown being used more like he was in his earlier Rams years, and with fewer snaps in the critical passing situations than he saw last season. This should lead to Gaskin maintaining a steady target share, and Brown being relegated to traditional backup level numbers. Unless the Dolphins tip their hand that he’ll be used more heavily than this and/or gets usage as the red zone/short yardage back he will be a weak play every fantasy format.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Mike Gesicki
Miami Dolphins
Mike Gesicki 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Mike Gesicki is expected to be the fantasy TE19. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as TE11 at pick 123, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 170 as of July. We currently expect a 12% target share which amounts to a projection of 73 targets (Rank 16) and 524 receiving yards (Rank 17) during the 17 week fantasy season.
The Dolphins drafted Hunter Long in the 3rd round, and Gesicki is facing his stiffest competition ever for both playing time and overall target share in the offense. It is fair to expect that the Dolphins will tilt more of their overall passing targets toward the WR group, leaving a smaller pie for tight ends and Gesicki possibly even getting a smaller slice of that pie. I have always liked the fantasy talents that Gesicki brings to the table, but have concerns about the concentration of workload he could see as he closes out the final year of his rookie deal. There is upside, but the way I see it he needs to hit that and then some to be a huge profit opportunity at his current ADP.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Tua Tagovailoa
Miami Dolphins
Tua Tagovailoa 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Tua Tagovailoa is expected to be the fantasy QB15. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as QB18 at pick 146, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 130 as of July. We currenty expect 4157 passing yards (Rank 21) and 26 passing touchdowns (Rank 13) during the 17 week fantasy season. We also expect 199 yards rushing (Rank 17) with a 14.% share of team rush attempts.
A rookie campaign that featured just 6.3 yards per attempt and a middling 7.9 air yards per attempt is not the kind of first impression you love to see when a QB is surrounded by deep ball mavens like Will Fuller, DeVante Parker, and (potentially) Jaylen Waddle. That being said we should not immediately dismiss the possibility of a year two leap, and the book is far from written on Tua. The RotoGrinders projections are somewhat bullish compared to his ADP, and any improvement in his propensity to throw the ball downfield could come with parabolic gains thanks to his talented receiving corps. If you need a QB2 in best ball or are simply playing the YOLO late round QB strategy, Tua should be pretty high on your list of upside potential targets.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Will Fuller
Miami Dolphins
Will Fuller 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Will Fuller is expected to be the fantasy WR53. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR41 at pick 81, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 111 as of July. We currently expect a 17% target share which amounts to a projection of 100 targets (Rank 51) and 751 receiving yards (Rank 54) during the 17 week fantasy season.
He’s suspended for Week 1 which has an impact on his overall projection, but week to week he could still be useful for your fantasy team. The problem lies in that the Dolphins have both Devante Parker and Jaylen Waddle hanging around to complicate his target share situation. In addition, we’re still at a point where Tua Tagovailoa has a lot to prove and there are no guarantees he lives up to the hype. We’re also assuming Fuller is the same guy in the absence of the PEDs that caused his suspension. For now, I think you can still make quality fantasy teams without drafting Fuller. I’ll go that route in most of my best ball drafts.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
Jaylen Waddle
Miami Dolphins
Jaylen Waddle 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, Jaylen Waddle is expected to be the fantasy WR47. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR49 at pick 95, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 88 as of July. We currently expect a 19% target share which amounts to a projection of 109 targets (Rank 44) and 798 receiving yards (Rank 49) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Once upon a time, top 10 WRs looked like Julio Jones and Calvin Johnson with massive frames and prototypical X alpha characteristics. Alabama has delivered a pair of WRs to the top 10 of this years draft that are on the short side and weigh under 360 pounds combined wearing soaking wet bath towels. This is not to say Jaylen Waddle cannot step right into this offense and be a productive weapon right out of the gate, but rather that the eye of the NFL scout has grown more fond of versatility and quickness. We are currently expecting this high pedigree player to have a major role in the offense, but he’s also surrounded by sturdy competition that will keep him in check. He’s a reasonable mid-round choice that you can grab in the ballpark of his Underdog Fantasy ADP as a small value.
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino -
DeVante Parker
Miami Dolphins
DeVante Parker 2021 Fantasy Outlook
Per RotoGrinders NFL player projections, DeVante Parker is expected to be the fantasy WR44. He’s being drafted on Underdog Fantasy as WR51 at pick 100, compared to his RotoGrinders ranking of 85 as of July. We currently expect a 19% target share which amounts to a projection of 112 targets (Rank 37) and 810 receiving yards (Rank 47) during the 17 week fantasy season.
Miami is one of the strangest WR situations I can remember. They acquired Will Fuller, drafted Jaylen Waddle, and still have SIX (6) other WRs on their roster competing for a spot that have registered a 100 yard performance in a real game (Hurns, Wilson, Grant, Parker, Foster, Williams). As of this writing he is beginning camp on the PUP list with yet another undisclosed issue, and it is getting harder to trust him as the years pass by without him reaching true expectation. It may be time to lower him in the rankings here at RG judging by the projections total above, and I can’t personally endorse him with confidence based on the moves Miami has made during the offseason. What part of signing a high profile wideout and drafting another one makes you feel good about the organizations feelings for him?
By: ChrisGimino
Chris Gimino
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