NBA DFS Picks Today (12/13): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
Following a tame 5-game Tuesday, we’re back with a more sizable 9-game NBA DFS slate on Wednesday night. This is another slate with no shortage of injury concerns, with questionable tags on big names like Kevin Durant, LeBron James, Anthony Davis, and Zion Williamson, among others. You can bet a lot will change between now and lock, but it can’t hurt to get an early look at where things stand.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
SG OG Anunoby ($5,800)
OG Anunoby is popping as the best point-per-dollar value in our projections as of this writing. If that doesn’t sound great, that’s because it isn’t. Toronto isn’t dealing with any major injury situations at the moment, so it’s not like Anunoby will be playing a much bigger role than usual tonight when the Raps host the Hawks.
On the bright side, his usual role is big enough. We’ve seen OG log at least 36 minutes in each of the last 3 games, and he’s averaging around 33 minutes per game on the year. His usage (19.6%) isn’t great, but he’s still contributing a solid 0.88 FP/min. Shooting guard is also a generally weak position, and tonight’s slate appears to be no exception in that regard.
This is a great spot for the Raptors, as the Hawks run at the league’s third-quickest pace while ranking 27th in defensive efficiency. There’s a reason Toronto’s 120.5 implied team total is among the highest on the slate, and it’s also nearly 9 points north of their season average.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
SF Trey Murphy ($4,900)
This play has the potential to get a lot more appealing later in the day. As mentioned, Zion Williamson is questionable for the Pels tonight when they take on the Wizards in DC. If he’s out, guys like Trey Murphy and Naji Marshall will benefit from a minutes standpoint. As things stand now, though, Murphy is still popping as a viable salary relief option at $4,900 on FD.
Murphy’s only played 4 games this season due to injury, and he’s logged 24 or fewer minutes in 3 of them. He did get up to 30 in one game, however, so the potential is there if he’s playing well. Even his current 26-minute projection is enough to make him viable, and this matchup against Washington certainly won’t hurt. The Wiz are now second in the league in pace and dead last in D-rating. They’re a full point per 100 possessions worse than the 29th-ranked Hornets on that end of the floor. It’s not good.
Murphy gets usage while he’s out there (22.7%), and there’s room for growth on his 0.89 FP/min. average. He is fairly scoring-dependent, but he’ll emerge as one of the most popular plays on the entire slate if Zion happens to take the night off.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PF Giannis Antetokounmpo ($11,400 DK, $12,000 FD)
For the second time in a matter of a few days, the Bucks will take on the Pacers. Indiana got the better of Milwaukee in the IST semis last Thursday in Vegas, and the Bucks will be out for revenge when they tangle again tonight in Wisconsin. Last week’s clash had an over/under of 257.5 points. Tonight’s rematch has an incredible 259.5 total, which is the highest we’ve seen…ever?
Given the total, it’s fair to assume this game will garner some ownership in some capacity. However, it’s looking as though Giannis Antetokounmpo may go overlooked. Ownership is always going to change throughout the day, but the Greek Freak is checking in below 4% pOWN% on both DraftKings and FanDuel as of this morning. Indiana’s defense has looked a little more stout of late, but they’re still 28th in the league in defensive efficiency. Combine that with their league-leading pace and offensive rating, and you’ve got a recipe for a shootout on a nightly basis.
We haven’t seen Giannis’ ceiling as consistently now that he’s sharing the floor with Damian Lillard, but a 1.61 FP/min. average is still among the best marks in the league. $11,400 on DK is downright cheap by his standards, while guys like Anthony Davis and Joel Embiid could attract some attention in the $12,000 range on FD.
PF Jabari Smith ($6,200 DK, $6,500 FD)
The Rockets didn’t really take advantage of their glorious on-paper matchup the other night against San Antonio, but they’ll draw another exploitable foe tonight with the Grizz in town. Jabari Smith has been largely overshadowed this season by the exploits of Alperen Sengun, but he’s enjoying a solid second year in the league. Smith’s per-game averages (12.5 points, 8.7 rebounds) won’t jump off the page, but his shooting percentages have improved considerably. Smith is also contributing about 2 stocks per game, while he’s grabbing an average of more than 12 rebounds through his first 4 appearances of December.
Smith is steadily productive (0.96 FP/min.), and he figures to feast on the boards again tonight. Memphis has long been one of the league’s best rebounding outfits, but that isn’t the case this year with Steven Adams sidelined. The Grizzlies have slumped to 25th in rebound rate on the year.
Smith isn’t necessarily a smash value in the low-to-mid-$6,000s around the industry, but there’s still a bit of meat on the bone. His rebounding gives him a steady floor, and there’s a ceiling here if the shots are falling.
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