NBA DFS Picks Today (12/20): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
Ten games populate the NBA schedule for Wednesday night, which gives us a lot more to consider than we had on last night’s 4-gamer. There doesn’t seem to be too much wild injury news, either, which may actually make the build a bit more difficult. There isn’t much obvious low-end value as of this morning, but that’s always subject to change throughout the day.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
C Jarrett Allen ($7,000)
The Cavs will be down Evan Mobley and Darius Garland for the next few weeks, and this team should be a popular source of value again tonight. Cleveland happens to draw one of the best matchups on the board against a Utah team that has been one of the worst in the league this season. Utah is just 24th in defensive efficiency, and they’ve been the eighth-worst defense in the league in terms of points allowed in the paint per game. That should be music to the ears of Jarrett Allen, who does the vast majority of his damage around the rim.
Allen won’t see a big usage boost with Mobley and Garland out, but the minutes should be more secure if he can avoid foul trouble. There’s also a bit more rebounding upside with Mobley out of the mix, while this is a good spot for blocked shots, as well. Utah has an average of 6.4 shots blocked per game, which is the fourth-highest mark in the league.
We’re paying a relative premium for Allen at $7,000 on DraftKings, but he’s still grading out as a strong point-per-dollar value in 34 projected minutes.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
C Alperen Sengun ($8,300)
Alperen Sengun got off to a blazing start to the season, though his salaries have dipped a bit over the past week or so amid some middling performances. Tonight we’re getting Sengun at just $8,300 on FanDuel, which feels like a discount for a guy who’s been pushing $9,000 for much of the season. The Rockets will host an Atlanta team that typically plays a full 48 minutes of Clint Capela and Onyeka Okongwu, so Sengun’s playing time should be secure.
We know what kind of damage Sengun is capable of inflicting while he’s out there. He’s contributing 1.31 FP/min. on the year with a team-best 27.6% usage rate. He also leads the Rockets in rebound rate and ranks second behind only Fred VanVleet in assist rate. He’s not the nightly triple-double threat that Nikola Jokic is, but he does still do a little bit of everything on offense.
Sengun will likely attract some ownership at this depressed price point, but center is a deep enough position to where he shouldn’t be overwhelmingly chalky, either.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PG Jalen Brunson ($8,600 DK, $8,500 FD)
What’s left to say that hasn’t already been said about Jalen Brunson? He’s been outstanding since arriving in New York last season, and he’s in the midst of yet another career year in his second year with the team. Brunson has outrageous shooting splits (48% FGs, 46% 3P, 80% FTs), and he’s averaging a ho-hum 1.18 FP/min. while logging heavy minutes on a nightly basis.
The Knicks will square off against the Nets in Brooklyn tonight in the latest iteration of the New York Derby. Brooklyn is just 21st in defensive rating this year, and this is a slight pace-up spot for the Knicks. We saw just a couple of games ago that Brunson really does have a legitimate tournament-winning ceiling, yet his salaries rarely seem to move much around the industry.
On slates with limited cheap value, balanced builds tend to grade out a bit better than stars-and-scrubs lineups. Brunson is a guy who fits nicely into a more balanced lineup construction tonight.
PG Jamal Murray ($7,200 DK, $7,900 FD)
Nuggets-Raptors isn’t the best expected game environment on this slate, but we do have a relatively tight spread, with Denver listed as a 4-point road favorite. The Nuggets haven’t yet hit their stride on the heels of last season’s title run, but they are starting to get healthy once again.
Jamal Murray has been dealing with a rash of his own injuries this season, and they’re still taking a relatively cautious approach to his minutes. Murray logged just 25 minutes in the last game, though we can partially attribute that to the Nuggets’ blowout win over the Mavs. He’d played 28 in the game before that, so something around 30 is a reasonable expectation for tonight if the game is competitive.
The minutes cap could knife into Murray’s ultimate ceiling here, but he is still efficient enough (1.19 FP/min.) to pay off his affordable salaries on both sites. $7,200 on DK looks particularly light for a guy we’re typically paying around $8,000 for. It’s also worth noting that the 2023-24 Toronto Raptors are not a good basketball team. Through 7 games in December, Toronto has a defensive rating of 123.6. That’s the fifth-worst mark in the league so far this month.
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