NBA DFS Picks Today (1/5): DraftKings & FanDuel Top Plays, Sleepers
Happy Friday! The sites are doing things differently once again. DraftKings has an 11-game main slate starting at 7 PM ET, while FanDuel hacked theirs down to an 8-gamer. POR-DAL, ORL-DEN, and MIA-PHX are the 3 games on DK that FD decided to exclude.
Below, you’ll find a few NBA DFS picks that stand out on DraftKings and FanDuel as of the early afternoon hours. If you’re looking for more in-depth analysis, sign up for RG Premium.
Top NBA DFS DraftKings Lineup Optimizer Value
PG Scoot Henderson ($6,100)
Following a grim start to his rookie season, Scoot Henderson has suddenly hit his stride. The former No. 2 overall pick remained in the starting lineup even with Anfernee Simons back in the last game, which is a pretty clear indication that the team is prioritizing playing him over Malcolm Brogdon at this point. Scoot logged his 4th straight game of at least 33 minutes, while Brogdon was held to just 17 off the bench.
That isn’t to say that minutes split will continue forever, but we’re comfortable enough to project Henderson for 34 minutes tonight in a rematch against the Mavs. There’s certainly blowout risk here – Dallas beat Portland 2 days ago by 29 points – but Scoot is going to play regardless. On the season, the rookie is up to 0.96 FP/minute on a healthy 26.7% usage. Henderson’s 28% assist rate is also the highest on the team.
Henderson will have a wide range of outcomes considering he isn’t the most reliable jump shooter at this stage of his career, but he’s also shown a knack for racking up assists and rebounds. His $6,100 salary on DraftKings tonight is one of the highest marks we’ve seen for him all year, but there’s still a chance he’s actually underpriced for the role he’s playing.
Top NBA DFS FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Value
PG Trae Young ($10,200)
Tonight’s Pacers-Hawks matchup is pretty clearly the game of the night. It might be the best fantasy environment we’ve ever seen, in fact. The Hawks are listed as 3-point underdogs on the road even though their 129.5 implied team total is the second-highest on the entire slate. The 262.5 over/under in this game is the highest in league history.
So, you’ll likely want some exposure to this one. One easy way to get it is via Trae Young, who’s quite reasonably priced in the low-$10,000 range on both DraftKings and FanDuel. Tyrese Haliburton has generated plenty of headlines so far this season, but Young is quietly in the midst of his own terrific campaign. Trae leads the Hawks in both usage (31.9%) and assist rate (48.5%) while averaging a healthy 1.5 FP/minute.
Both lead guards in this game are too cheap on DK for the potential shootout, but we’re getting the $10,200 Young at a useful $1,200 discount from Hali on FanDuel.
NBA DFS Sleepers
PG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander ($10,400 DK, $11,700 FD)
Everyone will flock to Haliburton or Young if they’re paying up for point guards, and rightfully so. One way to get a little different with a similar roster construction is by paying for Shai Gilgeous-Alexander at what should be a fraction of the ownership instead.
I’ve been harping on SGA’s greatness all year long. He’s one of the few Thunder players we can reasonably expect to play 35+ minutes in close games, and tonight’s matchup against the struggling Nets is certainly an exploitable one. Shai is contributing 1.59 DK FP/minute on the year, which is a slightly better rate than we’ve seen from either Haliburton or Young.
$11,700 on FanDuel is getting up there, but we do have a higher salary cap over there. For some reason, DK refuses to price him up the way they seem to do for everyone else. SGA is quite reasonable at just $10,400. SGA is checking in with around 5% pOWN% on both sites.
C Walker Kessler ($5,400 DK, $6,800 FD)
We love the Jazz rotations, don’t we folks? We never know what to expect from Will Hardy on a nightly basis, but it stands to reason that Walker Kessler will play a big role for Utah for the rest of the season. He’s one of the team’s core young pieces, and it doesn’t make much sense for a rebuilding team to keep him nailed to the bench.
Kessler has been coming off the bench behind John Collins in recent games, but Collins’ minutes have been way down. Kessler has logged at least 27 minutes off the bench in 3 of the last 4 games, which is encouraging. He’s a reliable per-minute producer (1.09), and he’s blocked at least 4 shots 3 times in the last 5 games.
The matchup tonight in Boston is a difficult one, but $5,400 on DK is a particularly alluring salary for a guy with Kessler’s upside.
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