NBA DFS Projections Preview | DraftKings & FanDuel LineupHQ Optimizer Values 1/5/23
Just four games on today’s main slate but at least we get Tatum vs. Doncic and three of the four games have totals over 230 so plenty of excitement and good games to be had still. The Magic, Grizzlies and Rockets are on a back-to-back and we already have ORL’s injury report but keep an eye out for the MEM and HOU reports later.
This is a daily weekday NBA article that can hopefully show you some lineup building tools on RG as well as provide some picks and analysis based on those tools.
Today’s FanDuel & DraftKings NBA DFS Projections Preview
There are ways to get edges in DFS NBA, such as tracking injury news right up to lock and swapping in top value plays if a questionable player gets ruled, knowing which teams are on a back-to-back and not fully rested, and adjusting to daily positional matchups and team pace matchups to always be targeting the players and teams with the highest daily upside. I will be focusing on the “main slate” each weekday, but you can still find plenty of analysis for any other slates including weekends on RG, and feel free to leave suggestions in the comments sections for any strategies / tools you’d like to see here!
This article is meant to highlight some of RG’s most helpful tools for NBA, including our industry-leading NBA DFS projections and NBA lineup optimizer, with some picks and analysis along the way. Let’s get to it!
NBA DFS Injury Roundup
Before we take a look at the projected lineups and picks for the day it’s important to get a feel for any injuries that we’ll need to monitor throughout the day and how these injuries will affect our builds if a questionable player ends up out. For cash games I’m looking for big minutes, high usage, and fast-paced games with bad defenses so knowing who is dealing with any kind of injury and might not get 30+ minutes is critical as well as how a regular starter being out will affect other players’ usage rates and if their replacement starter is worth using.
Looking at The Situation Room we can see who is definitely out, likely out, and questionable for today’s main slate and how it will affect lineups if certain questionable players end up sitting.
- Paul George is questionable with hamstring soreness and if out we’d likely see Terance Mann start for him while Kawhi Leonard is off the injury report and would get a big usage bump with no PG13.
- Jalen Suggs is questionable to return from his ankle injury and if he is available I’d expect him to be on some kind of minutes limit and possibly come off the bench and split SG minutes with Harris and Ross. If he remains out then Gary Harris likely starts.
- Until we get the Grizzlies injury report I’d consider Desmond Bane questionable for rest on the b2b with John Konchar likely starting for him if does end up out. (Update: Bane is OUT)
If you want to see how someone out will affect the rest of the team check out the Court IQ Tool where you can see what players’ usage rates and FPPM (fantasy points per minute) are for any team with certain teammates on or off the floor.
NBA Projected Lineups – Analysis & Top Games to Target
Let’s take a look at NBA Starting Lineups to see any major lineup news, such as guys missing or interesting depth chart changes as well as which teams or games I’m looking to target. This page is my favorite tool for NBA DFS as we get betting lines, DFS salaries, projected ownership, and updated depth charts that we can refer to as we build our lineups or see what is affected by any news throughout the day, so make sure to take advantage of this page to keep you up to date on a variety of beneficial DFS info.
- The Magic remain without Okeke and Isaac due to injury, Bol Bol is still out in health & safety protocols, Moritz Wagner is out due to suspension, and Kevon Harris and RJ Hampton have been assigned to the G-League. This leaves them with 11 or 10 available players today depending on the status of Suggs, and I’d expect them to go with a similar starting five as yesterday with either Suggs or Harris starting at SG.
- JaeSean Tate will return from his ankle injury to help at the forward spots likely off the bench with some kind of minutes restriction. Eric Gordon usually sits back-to-backs but isn’t listed on HOU’s first injury report so it looks like he’ll play.
- Nicolas Batum is out for the Clippers so Robert Covington will likely see rotation minutes while Morris and the other forwards will all help cover Batum’s time too.
- Collin Sexton remains out for Utah so Conley, Clarkson, Beasley, and NAW will all absorb his minutes.
NBA DraftKings & FanDuel Lineup Optimizer Picks
With a good feel for injuries, projected lineups, and top games to target, let’s check out LineupHQ, where you can create lineups in seconds with our lineup optimizer tool as well as the “build” tool where you can create up to 300 lineups at once based on your custom settings.
If we click on the “P/$” column header in the LineupHQ grid, it will rank all the available players from high to low based on their expected fantasy points per dollar of salary on the specific DFS site you have selected — this is one of the best starting points for finding value on any slate.
On FanDuel:
- With Bol Bol and Moritz Wagner out I’m loving Wendell Carter ($5,900) as his price went down $600 from yesterday after going for over 34 FP in 30 minutes. There is some risk of the b2b causing him to see slightly less minutes but for his price I will not be fading him in cash games.
- Jabari Smith ($5,000) is a solid play that I’d consider for cash games as his price is going to spike pretty soon as he’s coming off a 39+ FP game and this could be the last game we can get him at $5k so take advantage of his upside at a great price.
- I definitely want some Utah exposure against HOU, and for the price I’m looking at Jordan Clarkson ($6,800) and Malik Beasley ($4,800) while Lauri Markkanen ($8,600) is still at a great price for the 50+ upside he brings to any pace up matchup. Beasley saw 30 minutes off the bench last game with no Sexton and went for over 33 FP, and for his price and likely 25+ minute floor I think he has another great shot at 30+ FP today.
- More guys to consider at great prices include Paolo Banchero ($7,800), Alperen Sengun ($6,000), Michael Porter ($5,700), Tim Hardaway ($5,600), and Terrence Ross ($3,700).
Looking at DraftKings:
- Wendell Carter ($6,400) is still my favorite ORL player for the price while Gary Harris ($3,800) and Terrence Ross ($3,700) are at prices that should keep them on your DFS radar if you need to fill a spot for under $4k.
- Jabari Smith ($4,800) remains a favorite play for the price but take note that Gordon looks available on the b2b and Tate will return from his ankle injury to take some forward minutes.
- Malik Beasley ($5,000) remains a top target from Utah for that price and Derrick White ($4,700) comes at a $700 discount to FD putting him in play for value on DK.
- Steven Adams ($5,700) also comes at a big discount to FD as he’s $1,600 cheaper on DK even with four straight games over 35 FP and is a solid cash game play at his current price. Ivica Zubac is $1,700 cheaper on DK than FD and although he’s coming off b2b down games he still has 30+ FP upside at a great price.
- Other DK value plays to consider include Robert Williams ($4,100), Reggie Jackson ($4,400), and Marcus Morris ($4,700).
Keep checking LineupHQ for any projections changes throughout the day, as the best p/$ plays could change in an instant if someone gets ruled out or some other type of news makes someone likely to see more or less minutes or usage.
NBA DFS – RotoGrinders Premium Tools Pre-Lock
If you have any tough lineup decisions or need some quick picks, be sure to check out the Consensus Value Rankings, Expert Survey, and LineupHQ tags from our DFS experts.
For up-to-the-minute news and analysis leading right up to lock, make sure to follow the RotoGrinders NBA twitter feed, read our NBA DFS Alerts page, and watch NBA Crunch Time.
Good luck today!
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